Been awful all summer. I can accept the raw data part being rubbish, because that’s what it is, based on a solitary run at any time, but the text forecasts have been shocking at times as well

It generally hasn't been too bad but today was a shocker.. aome 8C higher than forcast 🤣

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/ace/standard/800/cpsprodpb/3ab5/live/5812bf70-94d3-11f1-8a9a-13c674e4e5fe.png.webp 

Amber heat health alerts for almost all of England as next heatwave begins

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/ce8ljn1ngg2o 

MetOffice now has a 36C at Heathrow as t continues with the ninja updates.

GFS has been over doing temps a little bit recently, but Arpege has been under doing them by a little as well and shows 37c.

UKV has 38C for Thursday as well on 03z

GFS had been very correct with this heatwave and will be the last one to deliver very high temperatures, can't see any more 35C for the rest of the time, not sure about Sept.   We should be saviour the 38-39c and if can beat the 38.5c recorded on 10th August 2003 as well.   

This means that unless today suddenly ends up being substantially hotter than what it was forecast to be which is very highly unlikely, there is unlikely to be an official heatwave here in Edinburgh after all as there are only two days in that immediate outlook which satisfy the heatwave threshold for here, rather than the three days which are required for that.

A few 39s on the 6z op GFS:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_84_uk2mtmpsohd.png 

No backing down on this and it now fixed and no change of plans or cancellations.   Very excited to see those temperatures to see how hot we can get with extremely dry ground now.  The 850s here at 19C would give us 38C or possible 39C which could be 19 to 20C range from the 850s first time ever.   Used to be 15-16c at best and in 2018 was 17-18C to now 19.20C range.   The ground is extremely drier than 2018 due to the timing of the dryness starting from mid June to now compare to 2018 which started in May to end of July.

Met office have issued a Amber Heat warning for Thursday for much of the Midlands  (anywhere between M4 and Manch

ester really) suggesting 38C could be reached. Met Office - Amber Warning 

Lovely 21c in the Scilly isles thank god.

Could happen at an interesting time though. The rapidly warming land will likely create a dramatic westward moving sea breeze front. So I wouldn't be surprised if temps max out at something like 12pm for you and then the sea breeze front moves through and it drops by 5C+ in less than an hour.

That'll be down to the flow direction, although the synoptics on 3rd August 1990 were rather different, with the easterly feeding high still dominant.

The SW Midlands generally are modelled to have the highest 850s at 3pm on Thursday (22-23°C) and the highest thicknesses (576dam) across England.

It's glorious down here. 21c still feels blooming hot though!

Indeed, yet are outside the Amber warning area

Wrong thread and no heating needed here until end of october thanks to the conservatory, I used heating few times during bad cold summers in the past last used in 2020 and 2021.   Also not sure why heating needed when the ensembles show back to average so that 23-25C here?  Heating get used when it drop below 10C first time in the Autumn so can't see 10C maxes this month as never been before.   12z ensembles now show it hit 20C here then a drop to average so 23-25C throughout, not a horrow show to me with those warm average temperatures for the time of the year.    Ally did anywhere reach 30C today?  Got 30.8C here as a result so surely some stations in the midlands get it.