The Weather Outlook

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saxtemp
07 August 2026 13:41:28

As I mentioned they did seem to leave off Thorney Island once or twice so I wondered if it had a question mark too. They seem to have discounted Gosport Fleetlands as well. But it seems to be all OK which is good.

Anyway with 25.2C there yesterday, that makes today the 39th consecutive day that 25C has been reached somewhere in the UK. Tomorrow will be the 40th, which equals what I think is the longest ever such run, in 1995. Looking at the forecast we will easily break it. (If it wasn't for the annoying 24.9C on June 29th, we would already be on  53 days!)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

This is the first summer that 'feels' unnatural, rather than just observing change on a graph. I never experienced 1976 though, but even 2022 was mostly focused on a peak and didn't feel too unusual. Maybe when I'm an honorary boomer in the 2070s I'll be telling people how exceptional 2026 was.

I think we'll easily get 40 days over 30c based on August alone. Remember 2023 had 7 30s in September.

It's unlikely, but we can't even rule out 50 days at this rate (8/9 in September and 1/2 in October)


Oxfordshire, 184m asl
westv
07 August 2026 14:30:05

It's unlikely, but we can't even rule out 50 days at this rate (8/9 in September and 1/2 in October)

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

Although September could be a washout like 76.


Big heat in May

Summer will be spray.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2026 14:37:27

It would be lovely to get another 35C just to the 4 in a row. 

I am in Manila for work at the moment and it’s rained everyday. I forgot what rain was like. I showed my team the grass currently in the UK and they were shocked lol.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Manila in August. I remember it well. Thick traffic fumed heat. Thunderstorms and biblical rain that you think will clear out the streams of their rubbish but in fact makes little difference. Quezon City - SM City North EDSA and the others air-conditioned, which is why they are popular escapes.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Hungry Tiger
07 August 2026 15:40:48

This is the first summer that 'feels' unnatural, rather than just observing change on a graph. I never experienced 1976 though, but even 2022 was mostly focused on a peak and didn't feel too unusual. Maybe when I'm an honorary boomer in the 2070s I'll be telling people how exceptional 2026 was.

I think we'll easily get 40 days over 30c based on August alone. Remember 2023 had 7 30s in September.

It's unlikely, but we can't even rule out 50 days at this rate (8/9 in September and 1/2 in October)

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

I think we'll see 30s in September and a couple in October.  🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Hungry Tiger
07 August 2026 15:43:17

This is the first summer that 'feels' unnatural, rather than just observing change on a graph. I never experienced 1976 though, but even 2022 was mostly focused on a peak and didn't feel too unusual. Maybe when I'm an honorary boomer in the 2070s I'll be telling people how exceptional 2026 was.

I think we'll easily get 40 days over 30c based on August alone. Remember 2023 had 7 30s in September.

It's unlikely, but we can't even rule out 50 days at this rate (8/9 in September and 1/2 in October)

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

In some respects it's starting to feel unatural . It's getting a bit scary now. The parched landscape in my home area is really frightening.  🙂🙁🙁🙁


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



doctormog
07 August 2026 15:43:31

I think we'll see 30s in September and a couple in October.  🙂🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Fahrenheit here I suspect.


Jiries
07 August 2026 15:47:10

Manila in August. I remember it well. Thick traffic fumed heat. Thunderstorms and biblical rain that you think will clear out the streams of their rubbish but in fact makes little difference. Quezon City - SM City North EDSA and the others air-conditioned, which is why they are popular escapes.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

They having Typhoon at the moment with lot of rains.  The rain made more mess than dryness.  Warm today after a chilly 8.6C to now 27.9C the max now 27.3C. The conservatory was 16.7C to 39.3C.  Both have durinal range today.

lanky
07 August 2026 15:58:34

This is the first summer that 'feels' unnatural, rather than just observing change on a graph. I never experienced 1976 though, but even 2022 was mostly focused on a peak and didn't feel too unusual. Maybe when I'm an honorary boomer in the 2070s I'll be telling people how exceptional 2026 was.

I think we'll easily get 40 days over 30c based on August alone. Remember 2023 had 7 30s in September.

It's unlikely, but we can't even rule out 50 days at this rate (8/9 in September and 1/2 in October)

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

In 2070 I think you will be reminiscing how pleasant summers in the 2020's were when the temperature rarely exceeded 40C 😊


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Rob K
07 August 2026 17:08:22

In 2070 I think you will be reminiscing how pleasant summers in the 2020's were when the temperature rarely exceeded 40C 😊

Originally Posted by: lanky 

If I'm still around in 2070 I'll take any summer I can get!

12Z GFS rebuilds the heat again in the south for a time. Still zero rain for most of England in the next 10 days. Local village green now looks like the Serengeti (but with fewer wildebeest).


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2026 17:37:21

If I'm still around in 2070 I'll take any summer I can get!

12Z GFS rebuilds the heat again in the south for a time. Still zero rain for most of England in the next 10 days. Local village green now looks like the Serengeti (but with fewer wildebeest).

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I spent two nights on the Aubrac plateau in France a couple of weeks ago and it was exactly like the Serengeti, with herds of cows replacing the Wildebeest. It’s usually green and flower strewn but this summer was pale yellow. What with that and the prominent granite tors that look like pride rock it was straight out of the Lion King. 

The GFS op isn’t a huge outlier long term with the maintaining of high pressure. Several ENS members now going for it, as was AIFS 06z.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2026 19:19:41

In some respects it's starting to feel unatural . It's getting a bit scary now. The parched landscape in my home area is really frightening.  🙂🙁🙁🙁

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I agree. It's got well beyond "interesting" weather. The landscape looks depressingly bleak, and you can sense the weariness with it all in people's faces.


Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

Crepuscular Ray
07 August 2026 19:29:07
Not feeling any of that up here, coolish, cloudy, breezy, green grass. 16 - 19 C most days, it's fairly normal!
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Bertwhistle
07 August 2026 19:44:31

Although September could be a washout like 76.

Originally Posted by: westv 

The moisture is up there (well it's certainly not down here). It's gotta come down sometime.

Look at autumn and winter last year; or October 23 after a record breaking September heatwave; or, as said, autumn 1976.

I'm almost more afraid of what's coming than what's currently afoot.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Matty H
07 August 2026 20:02:15
I don’t want to jinx it, but traditionally it’s the summer after an El Niño that’s the hot and dry one. Maybe even better to come in 2027
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2026 20:29:49

The moisture is up there (well it's certainly not down here). It's gotta come down sometime.

Look at autumn and winter last year; or October 23 after a record breaking September heatwave; or, as said, autumn 1976.

I'm almost more afraid of what's coming than what's currently afoot.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

The atmosphere can't somehow bottle it all up for later use. It must be raining excessively somewhere else.

However, our turn will come. My mother has an aphorism for this situation. "Once it [the rain] starts it won't know when to stop."


Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

Matty H
07 August 2026 20:56:25

The atmosphere can't somehow bottle it all up for later use. It must be raining excessively somewhere else.

However, our turn will come. My mother has an aphorism for this situation. "Once it [the rain] starts it won't know when to stop."

Originally Posted by: RobN 

Like last winter. Wet


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

haghir22
07 August 2026 21:48:36
I have to say, we’ve been in our house since 2001 and I’ve never seen the ponds around Epsom common like this. We’ve our annual street party tomorrow and with a thousand acres of EpsomAnd Ashtead commons on our doorstep we’ve made sure no one BBQ’s or intends to light fire pits in the evening.

I’ve never seen the grass so brown or the trees leaves withered like this.


YNWA
haghir22
07 August 2026 21:51:09
….though I will say. I’m a little surprised about the BBC articles regarding Wisley and the amount of days without rain as I was stuck in a Q on the M25 at the new A3/M25 junction at Wisley last week when we had a heavy downpour albeit about ten mins. 
YNWA
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2026 22:13:21

I don’t want to jinx it, but traditionally it’s the summer after an El Niño that’s the hot and dry one. Maybe even better to come in 2027

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Hmm. 1998: summer after an el Nino. 2007: summer after El Niño. 2016: summer after El Niño. 1988, 2024…

With the notable exception of 1983 I’d say summers after el ninos have been generally shite. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
07 August 2026 22:21:40

I have to say, we’ve been in our house since 2001 and I’ve never seen the ponds around Epsom common like this. We’ve our annual street party tomorrow and with a thousand acres of EpsomAnd Ashtead commons on our doorstep we’ve made sure no one BBQ’s or intends to light fire pits in the evening.

I’ve never seen the grass so brown or the trees leaves withered like this.

Originally Posted by: haghir22 

Any update about Ewell horse pond that by the main road I used to see very low to dried up before up to 1996 then never again as Epsom council decided to pump fresh water just to keep flowing and preventing natural dry up. It was interesting to watch the water level dropping each day until they pump water in. They only turn off during big freeze which the water levels dropping again.  I wonder if they banned wasting fresh water this time?

Matty H
07 August 2026 22:39:37

Hmm. 1998: summer after an el Nino. 2007: summer after El Niño. 2016: summer after El Niño. 1988, 2024…

With the notable exception of 1983 I’d say summers after el ninos have been generally shite. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Interesting take, as the facts don’t support your opinion. 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2026 22:56:10

Interesting take, as the facts don’t support your opinion. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Give me some post-Nino hot summers then. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
The Beast from the East
08 August 2026 01:54:51

….though I will say. I’m a little surprised about the BBC articles regarding Wisley and the amount of days without rain as I was stuck in a Q on the M25 at the new A3/M25 junction at Wisley last week when we had a heavy downpour albeit about ten mins. 

Originally Posted by: haghir22 

We had a few drops on that day, but nothing you could record.  We havent had any proper rain since that massive thunderstorm at the start of the second heatwave in June. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Matty H
08 August 2026 04:57:52

Give me some post-Nino hot summers then. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

1999, 2017, 2025. 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Ally Pally Snowman
08 August 2026 08:04:30
ECM 0z going for 35c Friday you can normally add 2c to ECM max temp charts. Could Friday be the hottest day of the year? 

Also Wetterzentrale.de have improved the chart so you can see it much more clearly now. 👍

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=17&run=0&time=162&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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