The Weather Outlook

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Bertwhistle
08 August 2026 17:44:47

This makes no sense

None of the heatwaves so far this year have affected the whole UK. Therefore by that logic this is heatwave 1, which probably won’t count either come the end

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Well possibly correct; but if the official declarations require some more widespread threshold, and I can't imagine what those are at the Met or Beeb, a few spurious stations hitting threshold for 3 days might not be satisfactory. There has been a lot of debate re: Charlwood of late; and Retron and Rob K have been quite thorough analysing the various stations.

I doubt the far west US would declare heatwaves every time Furnace Creek exceeds N°C for N days.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Matty H
08 August 2026 17:50:33

Well possibly correct; but if the official declarations require some more widespread threshold, and I can't imagine what those are at the Met or Beeb, a few spurious stations hitting threshold for 3 days might not be satisfactory. There has been a lot of debate re: Charlwood of late; and Retron and Rob K have been quite thorough analysing the various stations.

I doubt the far west US would declare heatwaves every time Furnace Creek exceeds N°C for N days.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

It’s factually correct. Heatwave criteria has been reached 5 times this summer in various areas. Most in the south of course. Next week will be the 6th time

Other outlets are reporting correctly (6)

The “heatwave 5” logic doesn’t makes sense. Heatwaves aren’t counted by how many places hit the criteria, they’re counted by how many actual measurable  heatwave events the UK has had.

A UK heatwave is regional by definition. Each area has its own threshold. So whether Scotland, Northern Ireland or the North miss out doesn’t magically erase the fact that a heatwave happened elsewhere.


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Bertwhistle
08 August 2026 17:55:29

It’s factually correct. Heatwave criteria has been reached 5 times this summer in various areas. Most in the south of course. Next week will be the 6th time

Other outlets are reporting correctly (6)

The “heatwave 5” logic doesn’t makes sense. Heatwaves aren’t counted by how many places hit the criteria, they’re counted by how many actual measurable  heatwave events the UK has had.

A UK heatwave is regional by definition. Each area has its own threshold. So whether Scotland, Northern Ireland or the North miss out doesn’t magically erase the fact that a heatwave happened elsewhere.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

As I said, I'm not sure what the 'logic' is behind the reporting; and you say the media is reporting #5 upcoming- maybe you should check what the official MetO line is. That would at least remove the question of inaccurate media.

But do you really think if one station, for example, happened to just reach-say, 27°C, for 3 days, that a national announcement about 'heatwave' should be released?

I don't.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
08 August 2026 18:00:19

It’s factually correct. Heatwave criteria has been reached 5 times this summer in various areas. Most in the south of course. Next week will be the 6th time

Other outlets are reporting correctly (6)

The “heatwave 5” logic doesn’t makes sense. Heatwaves aren’t counted by how many places hit the criteria, they’re counted by how many actual measurable  heatwave events the UK has had.

A UK heatwave is regional by definition. Each area has its own threshold. So whether Scotland, Northern Ireland or the North miss out doesn’t magically erase the fact that a heatwave happened elsewhere.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Actually I meant the possibilty of not making sense.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Jiries
08 August 2026 18:04:02

Widespread 39s on Thursday on 12Z GFS. It is surely overdoing it - none of the other models have 850s anywhere close to the 22C GFS is showing.

Originally Posted by: DisRob K 

Never dismiss the GFS temperatures so far I am going for it as the 12z ensembles now inching up to 18C and the heatwave extended so for here I expecting 35-36c.  They were correct for my area showing 32-33C on heatwave 5 that i got 32.5c as the results.  Today was 29C for 12C 850's and tomorrow 30C expected with 13C 850's. 

Rob K
08 August 2026 18:15:05
29.5 at Northolt the max as far as I can see so looks like we just missed out on day 35 of 30C (assuming the Met was correct with 34 up to now, I only count 33).
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
08 August 2026 18:49:43

Widespread 39s on Thursday on 12Z GFS. It is surely overdoing it - none of the other models have 850s anywhere close to the 22C GFS is showing.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

GFS doesn't always overcook things. 🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Brian Gaze
08 August 2026 19:17:40
Shocking levels of heat on tonight's UKV 15Z. It's going for 40C in London.

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Jiries
08 August 2026 19:41:41

GFS doesn't always overcook things. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

As Brian posted it below from UKM charts it the same as GFS.  From other forum those who dismissing the GFS are the heat haters.  I find there have many hate haters than heat lovers or summer lovers.  Cannot dismiss at your peril on any charts you don't like, the very dry ground is the main factor that allow high 30's temps otherwise low 30's in normal summer. Today humidity drop to 21% so very dry air that will allow higher temps.

Matty H
08 August 2026 20:06:42

GFS doesn't always overcook things. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I doubt there’s any sort of correlation, but in winter it constantly overcooks snowfall in colder spells. Think of Gooner’s JFF. Rarely or ever materialise. Not sure if that equates into heatwaves though. 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 August 2026 05:25:58
A frankly ridiculous 0z GFS run - Thursday's heat gets shunted eastwards a bit, and out pops a 38C for here, followed by a 35C. That would be unprecedented...

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/l.jpg  (via xc)

UserPostedImage

The MetO raw has 32 on Thursday with a brisk onshore breeze... hmm.


Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 August 2026 05:36:33

29.5 at Northolt the max as far as I can see so looks like we just missed out on day 35 of 30C (assuming the Met was correct with 34 up to now, I only count 33).

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

It ended up as 29.8 at Hull... even closer to that 30!


Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
09 August 2026 06:00:21

A frankly ridiculous 0z GFS run - Thursday's heat gets shunted eastwards a bit, and out pops a 38C for here, followed by a 35C. That would be unprecedented...

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/l.jpg  (via xc)

UserPostedImage

The MetO raw has 32 on Thursday with a brisk onshore breeze... hmm.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The app now correcting it to 33C for Thursday and last time they put 33 was for heatwave 1 to 3.  More correcting higher  needed to match the latest temps run from the models.  Thursday is the peak for here before this move east.  I find it so yawn fest when the last heat cling to the far east just my feeling even when I lived in Epsom.

Crepuscular Ray
09 August 2026 07:19:20
I can confidently report that Scotland didn't have a heatwave in May, June or July and neither will it have one in August. Edinburgh had one day at 28 C in June. 

This week, our warm spell will be 21 - 25 C for 3 days

We've had warmer summers


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Charmhills
09 August 2026 07:50:49
Temps ranging form 28 to 24 to 32 to 33c by Thursday for here, with unbroken sunshine throughout.😎☀️

Cooling by the weekend with some fresher nights by then.

The sun has lost a bit of its potency now, and it does make a difference to how its feels in terms of heat.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2026 10:48:32
Already 29C at Herstmonceaux and Gatwick. Hottest area today will be South of London. And at my vineyard it’s now 31C…

Not Charlwood, despite it being right in the hotspot, which suggests the issue has been fixed. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
09 August 2026 10:53:02
Interesting that the Met Office tweet this morning just said "feeling rather hot" in the south, with a temperature of 32C on the map. Looking at some of the old Met Office daily weather reports from the 1970s and 1980s they often describe temperatures in the high 20s as "hot`" or even "very hot"!

Looking later in the week, it's really starting to look as though the 38C in June might not even be the highest temperature of the year.

We've had date records set in March, April, May, June and July this year - if the models are right then we will add August to that list.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
09 August 2026 11:03:48
I see charts from there showing now 38C here some 39C nearby over Birmingham area.  With the extremely dry ground and to reach climax of the summer is this heatwave might be the one to bring the hottest day of the year if reach over 39c to 40C somewhere.  Exciting times ahead.
Rob K
09 August 2026 11:14:15
30.5C at Frittenden at midday, so that's beaten 1995 in terms of 30C+ days (or equalled it, by my count which doesn't match the Met Office's!).
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
09 August 2026 13:11:33
Charlwood has already hit 32.4C so perhaps it is still overcooking.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
09 August 2026 13:21:35

Charlwood has already hit 32.4C so perhaps it is still overcooking.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

So how many days of 32C and over is that now. 😵😵😵😵


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2026 14:02:48

So how many days of 32C and over is that now. 😵😵😵😵

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I wouldn’t count until a station other than Charlwood records 32C. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
picturesareme
09 August 2026 14:35:11
Staggering difference in dew points between Gosport Fleetlands and Thorney. 

6C at Gosport 18C Thorney that's 12 C difference over 20 miles and both coastal 

Bertwhistle
09 August 2026 14:40:29

Staggering difference in dew points between Gosport Fleetlands and Thorney. 

6C at Gosport 18C Thorney that's 12 C difference over 20 miles and both coastal 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

GF is at 29°C with an ESE breeze; TI at just 26°C with a SSW breeze. The IOW is helping to delay the onset of the sea breeze. Thorney has no such protection with a SSW'ly and the extra humidity accounts for the dew point differences.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

johncs2016
09 August 2026 14:46:37

I can confidently report that Scotland didn't have a heatwave in May, June or July and neither will it have one in August. Edinburgh had one day at 28 C in June. 

This week, our warm spell will be 21 - 25 C for 3 days

We've had warmer summers

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

That may well be true but we've also had much cooler and wetter summers than this and so far, this summer has been warmer than average overall with 20+°C maximums still being recorded here on a more regular basis than we would typically expect.

I do agree that this summer hasn't been as hot or as sunny as last summer but you only have to go back to 2024 to find a year in which the temperature here in Edinburgh actually failed to even reach 25°C during that entire year whereas during this year so far, we have actually seen temperatures of over 25°C on a number of occasions, albeit in such a way that we haven't actually had an official heatwave out of that (we have come close to that on at least a couple of occasions though).


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

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