Those are 2 years after the Nino peak. The equivalent would be 2028.

The El Niño ran into the subsequent year. So the year before each date I listed, so my comments are correct 

https://www.newshub.co.uk/news/2026/06/25/el-nino-2026-how-the-uks-weather-may-change-due-to-the-super-el-nino-phenomenon/ 

El Niño peaks over Christmas, so there’s always an onset year (like 1982, 1997, 2006, 2015, and 2026) and then a falling year when global temperatures are at their peak but Nino 3.4 is declining (1983, 1998, 2007, 2016, 2027). 

Those second years, which 2027 will be, have a pretty poor recent history in British summers. The big exception being 1983 (notably that event started and peaked much later than others, which maybe has something to do with it). So I am pessimistic about 2027 for that reason. 

The years after - 1984, 1999, 2008 etc - are La Niña years. They seem a bit more of a mixed bag. 

Feels like hairs are being split a little

The 2023/2024 El Niño peaked in January 2024, before fading in May 2024. The following UK summer (the summer after in 2025) was the hottest UK summer on record 

Important for 2027 predictions though. This event will peak sometime between Dec 2026 and Jan 2027, so 2024 is the reference year for 2027.

I’d love for 2027 to buck the trend though. And it’s almost certainly not going to be as cold as 1998 or as wet as 2007. 

21/19/19/22/26/24/21 so no heatwave again but a decent week coming up, rain tomorrow then I'm hoping for blue sky and to get rid of this persistent SW wind which blows strongly every day!

To go with the earliest!

Sounds like bliss TBH!

Meanwhile down here in the desert it's now 27.1 - the next heatwave has arrived.

We really need a 35C in September to complete the set. Massively unlikely, but hey. Oh and a 30C in October. 

35 in August isn't yet a cert but is looking increasingly likely now, on Thursday.

In this day and age you’d suspect even if it was a wet summer it would still somehow feature in the top 20 warmest 

35C in September is far more likely than 30C in October 

Indeed. Former has happened once, latter hasn’t (quite) ever happened.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/95/9086/120_580UKrqh1.GIF 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/57/27471/120_101UKbsx5.GIF 

Because it's not the 6th heatwave for everybody.

For some hotspots (including here) 5th to 13th became one heatwave. 

It’s still factually inaccurate. It’s like saying it didn’t rain here so it didn’t rain anywhere

Edit: by that logic - there’s been no heatwaves in the far north of Scotland. Therefore there have been no heatwaves  

By point one of a degree. 

Closer in recent years to the mark than the 2 34s we had. 

Of course you know probability is not defined by past events alone.

And there's more maths to this than probability anyway!

No it isn't for everybody.

Of course if geography is the issue then maybe it's the twentieth or something for Arizona.

The irony (frustrating in some ways if it's the count you're after) is that hotter places may have fewer heatwaves as they merge into longer ones.

I imagine the wider heatwave thresholds haven't been met in many places (a focus on the SE for the 27s and 28s).

I had one heatwave in May, one in June, two in July and am awaiting number 5, which now looks as if it won't come until later next week. 2 days doesn't count. 10 days doesn't count as two.

This makes no sense

None of the heatwaves so far this year have affected the whole UK. Therefore by that logic this is heatwave 1, which probably won’t count either come the end