Hi Geoff, They used to change the weather symbol to an orange colour in the seventies when it reached 25c which meant it was going to a top end summer day.

Now they don’t bother as most days in se and London are above 25c without any special conditions or uppers in fact even when not really favourable I also note amazing sst around the south coast these days .

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

In all seriousness, you should make the most of that livable weather while you can - I wish I had in the 80s! Living in a house that gets hotter day by day until the very bricks and floors radiate warmth, making sleep fleeting, sweat common, is something I don't think people appreciate until they have to endure it. Even the heat fans locally to me seem to be struggling by night...

The Thames estuary knocks those south coast SSTs into a cocked hat. It's been in the low 20s for a couple of weeks now and the warmth is spreading ever further out. Considering it used to peak at say 17 or 18 in September it really is remarkable. It also makes the nights that much warmer when the wind blows from the sea, which then means the days will be hotter... a reinforcing cycle.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/80/7846/2026_07_03ukoiu5.gif 

The most staggering thing for me is the way people in general don't seem to realise how exceptional this weather is - I swear if it's not high 20s people seem to be disappointed these days. People don't seem to believe you when you say the average is 22 or 23 this time of year!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Even charts like this are now disappointing for the heat hounds because they don't go to 40C or higher.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

12Z GFS manages 38C by Saturday. It's still been very keen on the high 30s output when the other models max out in the low 30s.

Looks like a similar setup to late June with an easterly flow, so Somerset the hot spot again.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

AIFS much cooler though. Only four days of 30C and then barely into the 20s by the 17th!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

AIFS much cooler though. Only four days of 30C and then barely into the 20s by the 17th!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

As Darren said a while back - pattern match the past climate - get the past climate modelled. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

You would have thought that they were modelling historical synoptic patterns but using latest temperature data for sea and air?  If not then it makes the output of dubious value.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

FAX - HP currently around the SW with W-lies for Scotland , centre transferring to the N Sea and weakening Fri 10th but still fronts (and presumably cloud) still affecting Scotland esp the NW.

GFS Op 0z - after FAX, the next ridge of HP is over N Scotland and that with LP 1015mb France creating hot-looking E-lies by Mon 13th. That pattern stays until Fri 17th when the HP withdraws to mid-Atlantic and draws down cooler N-lies, including a shallow LP 1000mb trundling down the west coast Mon 20th (Remind me, when do -English - school holidays start?)

ECM to T +240 - similar to GFS

AIFS - (Wetterzentrale saying 'You don't have permission to access thus resource' - anyone know the cause?) ECMWF meteogram for London shows 30C this week, dropping back to 24C next week, small chance of rain after Mon 13th. For Edinburgh, mostly around 18C but warmer (up to 24C) for 2 or 3 days at the end of this week. Small amounts of rain now, around Sat 11th and Wed 15th

GEFS - above norm temps for this week (up to 10C above in the S, 6C above in N)), dropping back from the weekend to norm by Mon 20th, Chance of rain around Fri 17th, also in N around Sat 11th.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

The above highlighted date is St. Swithin's Day and of course, we all know about what the famous legend says about what happens if it rains on St. Swithin's Day or doesn't rain on that day.

If that AIFS output for here was to come off though, I would probably be very grateful in this instance that the St. Swithin's Day legend isn't something which we can take very seriously.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

12Z GFS is slightly less hot but still a very summery run out to day 9

Edit - and on thre ensembles it has really cut the heat down by next weekend, last day with a median temp over 30C is Friday.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Where do you get those median temps Rob?

I can only navigate to the mean.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

12Z GFS is slightly less hot but still a very summery run out to day 9

Edit - and on thre ensembles it has really cut the heat down by next weekend, last day with a median temp over 30C is Friday.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Quite a significant turnaround on the 12Z GEFS. Compared to the 00Z the peak of the mean line is 2C lower and about 24 hours earlier (16C on the 9th vs 18C on the 10th).

It does show a few signs of a second rise around the 16th/17th but the runs that kept the heat going have disappeared. 

Definitely a shift towards an old-style decent summer spell rather than the “super-1976” that had been hinted at. 

The iPhone app has also cut it back to the upper 20s by the weekend. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K