The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2026 06:33:40
What is happening at Wetterzentrale?

"This website you are visiting is either experiencing problems or could be going through maintenance." and "You don't have permission to access this resource."


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Matty H
09 July 2026 06:42:40

What is happening at Wetterzentrale?

"This website you are visiting is either experiencing problems or could be going through maintenance." and "You don't have permission to access this resource."

Originally Posted by: DEW 

I’m no internet expert, but I’d suggest there’s a fault with the site, or it’s being worked on


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Rob K
09 July 2026 06:48:15

True but it's rapidly reaching the stage where it will go down as one of the all time classics regardless of what happens later on. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Except on social media where it’s apparently been “freezing” apart from at the fake airfield weather stations. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Polar Low
09 July 2026 06:51:20

What is happening at Wetterzentrale?

"This website you are visiting is either experiencing problems or could be going through maintenance." and "You don't have permission to access this resource."

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Seems to be working ok Dew try deleting all temporary files and history 

Here are the ecm T2

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=ecm&var=5&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Crepuscular Ray
09 July 2026 06:59:42
Looking at the 00Z's this morning, Eastern Scotland is warm today and possibly tomorrow then it's a gradual cool down. Into the high teens by this weekend, down to the low teens towards the end of the month

As the high wallows around to the north easterly winds bring cool air off the North Sea

Eventually a northerly flow brings generally cooler air

I think it's unlikely we'll achieve a heatwave in July


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

moomin75
09 July 2026 07:04:26
ECM 0z looking more definitively unsettled/thundery from about Friday next week, but UKMO doesn’t look anything like ECM at 168hrs, so I am not convinced of a big, major pattern change.

Of course, at some stage this will break, it has to, but the question then will be how long for? I would hesitate to say we won't get further heatwaves, even when/if this one breaks.

Got 2 months of summer left, and is starting to feel like a classic.

Famous last words, and of course, August could go belly up, but I wouldn't place any bets on that this year.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2026 07:06:22

Seems to be working ok Dew try deleting all temporary files and history 

Here are the ecm T2

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=ecm&var=5&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Thats what I had to do - clear history to get it working again.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2026 07:41:14

Seems to be working ok Dew try deleting all temporary files and history 

Here are the ecm T2

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=ecm&var=5&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Thanks - now accessible again


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Saint Snow
09 July 2026 09:00:30

ECM 0z looking more definitively unsettled/thundery from about Friday next week, but UKMO doesn’t look anything like ECM at 168hrs, so I am not convinced of a big, major pattern change.

Of course, at some stage this will break, it has to, but the question then will be how long for? I would hesitate to say we won't get further heatwaves, even when/if this one breaks.

Got 2 months of summer left, and is starting to feel like a classic.

Famous last words, and of course, August could go belly up, but I wouldn't place any bets on that this year.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I know the lulls between the heatwaves have been less pronounced the further SE you go, but up here it's felt like a series of separate heatwaves punctuated by pretty average weather.

It's been lovely to have a couple weeks of heat then a couple of weeks to recharge the sleep batteries, get some rain on the ground/crops, then go again.

I remember 2018. We had a glorious May/Jun/ July then a releatively crap August.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2026 09:14:39

I know the lulls between the heatwaves have been less pronounced the further SE you go, but up here it's felt like a series of separate heatwaves punctuated by pretty average weather.

It's been lovely to have a couple weeks of heat then a couple of weeks to recharge the sleep batteries, get some rain on the ground/crops, then go again.

I remember 2018. We had a glorious May/Jun/ July then a releatively crap August.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

There have been a few of those. 1994, 1999, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019 (aside from the BH heatwave).


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Saint Snow
09 July 2026 09:19:13

There have been a few of those. 1994, 1999, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019 (aside from the BH heatwave).

Originally Posted by: TimS 

2013 had a great July - up until the last week, then summer turned poor.

2014 similar story


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
09 July 2026 09:23:48
Best output this morning is AIGFS in my opinion. Keeps high pressure in control longer - at least for the northern two-thirds

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2026 10:07:06

2013 had a great July - up until the last week, then summer turned poor.

2014 similar story

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I was going to include 2013, but actually the stats for August 2013 were quite decent. Warmer and drier than average. So although not as good as July I don’t think it counts. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Chunky Pea
09 July 2026 10:15:25
2014 summer I will remember for the sheer volume and frequency of thunderstorms (that actually started in May) My highest ever rain rate was recorded in July that year. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Rob K
09 July 2026 11:57:51
Growing support for a second burst iof heat around the 14th/15th with 850s now averaging 18C in London and several 20s.

The cool northerly still reaches the low 20s in the south and I strongly suspect it will be watered down come the time...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

ozoneaurora
09 July 2026 15:42:06

2013 had a great July - up until the last week, then summer turned poor.

2014 similar story

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

For somewhat IMBY point of view:-

Summer 2013 had 'nothing to write home about' June, an excellent July, and a pretty good August.

Summer 2014 had good June and July (even if quite thundery), but went belly up in August, thanks to hurricane Bertha (though fine weather returned and dominated September).

I was living in Suffolk at the time.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2026 17:12:09
No review tomorrow (Fri) - setting off for home early to avoid the worst of the heat
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Rob K
10 July 2026 06:57:38
Tuesday and Wednesday next week now looking like they could be the peak of this spell. Still lots of uncertainty about how the breakdown happens and how much heat gets drawn up to the UK ahead of the low. 

Some signs of another plume around the 24th too. ECM is a prime example. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
10 July 2026 07:42:13

Tuesday and Wednesday next week now looking like they could be the peak of this spell. Still lots of uncertainty about how the breakdown happens and how much heat gets drawn up to the UK ahead of the low. 

Some signs of another plume around the 24th too. ECM is a prime example. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I’m looking very closely. I’m off to the Belgium GP and just my luck that the weather break happens just around this time. 

Hoping the models are sober doing it, and as we saw between June and this heatwave, the lull actually wansnt to bad in the end. ECM toying with idea of a quick return to heat.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Rob K
10 July 2026 10:40:06
6Z GFS doesn't seem to be making much of the breakdown, HP seamlessly rebuilding after one day just failing to reach 30C.... in fact looking again even the "coolest" day makes 30C.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
10 July 2026 12:08:09
P11 brings the 28C isotherm across the UK, I am not sure that's even been modelled before? Only 44C on the 2m charts though.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
10 July 2026 12:43:32

P11 brings the 28C isotherm across the UK, I am not sure that's even been modelled before? Only 44C on the 2m charts though.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I think that's a first! Here's the chart for posterity...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/21992/gensfr_11_0_276txj9.png 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
10 July 2026 13:37:40

I think that's a first! Here's the chart for posterity...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/21992/gensfr_11_0_276txj9.png 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

And that's the 30C isotherm nudging into the Channel. Dropping the cursor on Dungeness comes up with a value of 29.1C.

Definitely more runs keeping the heat going on the 6Z set although the op run was a bit of an outlier.

UserPostedImage 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

scillydave
10 July 2026 13:38:23

I think that's a first! Here's the chart for posterity...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/21992/gensfr_11_0_276txj9.png 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

And a fraction away from 30c as well - extraordinary!


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Rob K
10 July 2026 16:50:12
HP builds back in quickly on the 12Z GFS too, but a bit further west so allows a temporary cooldown next weekend before the 30s inevitably return... including a seventh 35C.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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