The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 July 2026 07:16:49
FAX - HP ca 1030mb close to Shetland through to Wed 15th. LP over France generating easterlies for England, even some troughs flirting with the south coast.

GFS Op 0z - picks up from FAX and increases the role of continental LP to Sat 18th; still a reserve of hot air to the east keeping the heat wave going, but from Tue 21st this LP and others over Scandinavia and Iceland switch the wind into the north and eventually (Sat 25th) the northwest when LP 995mb Western Isles. In a week's time, still warm  and dry but less hot in the south next week, mostly cool and cloudy in the north.

ECM to T + 240 - like GFS for a week, but bringing back HP from the SW and new heat from Tue 21st.

AIFS - London, maxima top 20s C to Thu 16th, then dropping sharply to 18C Sat 18th with an inch of rain; recovery to Fri 24th (23C) but another drop with rain to follow. Edinburgh, peaks Thu 16th and Wed 22nd in low 20s C but mostly upper teens; rain briefly on Sat 18th and more on Fri 24th.

GEFS - dropping from 6 or  7C above norm, (less in north) lasting to the end of this week, then down to norm through to Mon 27th, chances of rain from Thu 16th onwards, sometimes heavy in north.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

The Beast from the East
11 July 2026 09:19:31
Going to be a shock to the system in the south after next weekend.  21c is going to feel chilly!  

Perhaps this is it now for the heatwaves this summer

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Matty H
11 July 2026 09:22:07

Going to be a shock to the system in the south after next weekend.  21c is going to feel chilly!  

Perhaps this is it now for the heatwaves this summer

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

People said that after the May heatwave…


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Rob K
11 July 2026 10:35:42

Going to be a shock to the system in the south after next weekend.  21c is going to feel chilly!  

Perhaps this is it now for the heatwaves this summer

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I wouldn't count on it turning that cool. All depends how far west that next HP builds and how much cool air comes down from the north.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Tom Oxon
11 July 2026 10:46:28
An increased breakdown signal for  next weekend on this morning's output, ECM op was quite progressive into FI. I'm off to Greece the following Monday to carry on the sunshine in any case!
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Ally Pally Snowman
11 July 2026 10:58:37
Not much of a cool down on the GFS 6z.  Brings back the heat quickly. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
11 July 2026 10:58:58

An increased breakdown signal for  next weekend on this morning's output

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 

Is there? GFS dips to a max of 28 and then back into the 30s by Wednesday. We'll see where it sits in the ensembles...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Crepuscular Ray
11 July 2026 11:49:13

Going to be a shock to the system in the south after next weekend.  21c is going to feel chilly!  

Perhaps this is it now for the heatwaves this summer

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Ahh.....21 C...luxury! 14.5 C our Max so far today


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Rob K
11 July 2026 13:05:22
Still a lot of spread on the GEFS next week - P18 goes for 39C on Wednesday.

The mean max drops to around 24-25 in the south from the 18th but there are still signs of a possible new heatwave around the 22nd-25th.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Polar Low
11 July 2026 16:52:37
Delightful run there from 12z ukmo if you want heat looks hot 96/120 with winds backing s/e low then cut off  further west  with a west/east  omega block.

Heat wave conditions amazing stuff

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=156&mode=0 

Rob K
11 July 2026 17:02:51
12Z GFS just goes crazy with another nine or ten 35C days including at least 4 37s... at least 21 consecutive days of 30C+. It would absolutely knock this summer out of the park in the record stakes.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
11 July 2026 17:07:08
Ridiculously hot GFS 12z,  mid 30s most of the run for us. Mid to high 40s for France 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
11 July 2026 17:09:49

Delightful run there from 12z ukmo if you want heat looks hot 96/120 with winds backing s/e low then cut off  further west  with a west/east  omega block.

Heat wave conditions amazing stuff

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=156&mode=0 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Yes, no surprise to see cooler and unsettled weather (aka bliss!) vanishing like a mirage. It reminds me very much of the way that easterlies and snow kept fading away in the winter... 

I strongly suspect we're stuck with this until the hurricane season ramps up. Hot air will never be far away this summer, and with SSTs widely into the 20s around southern England it means it's that much easier for heat to persist.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/96/8835/sstukvya5.gif 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
11 July 2026 17:14:30
12Z GFS keeps the run of 30C days going until the 26th, that's 22 consecutive days. It seems very unlikely but this summer you really never know...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Polar Low
11 July 2026 17:24:46

Yes, no surprise to see cooler and unsettled weather (aka bliss!) vanishing like a mirage. It reminds me very much of the way that easterlies and snow kept fading away in the winter... 

I strongly suspect we're stuck with this until the hurricane season ramps up. Hot air will never be far away this summer, and with SSTs widely into the 20s around southern England it means it's that much easier for heat to persist.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/96/8835/sstukvya5.gif 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes Darren amazing sst the other thing worthy of note is the soil is very very dry now with residual heat increasing with a high altitude sun we don’t need amazing uppers now in this part of the  uk to get >30c with ease I must say.

To me ukmo looks very hot indeed mid week as things shift se with France very hot indeed.

we shall see if she keeps her nerve but a clear upgrade from uk, icon gfs so far.

all to play for but a fabulous summer so far.

Retron
11 July 2026 17:42:57

Yes Darren amazing sst the other thing worthy of note is the soil is very very dry now with residual heat increasing with a high altitude sun we don’t need amazing uppers now in this part of the  uk to get >30c with ease I must say.

To me ukmo looks very hot indeed mid week as things shift se with France very hot indeed.

we shall see if she keeps her nerve but a clear upgrade from uk, icon gfs so far.

all to play for but a fabulous summer so far.

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Fabulous isn't the adjective I'd use of course, but it is interesting to see what 1976 would look like in today's climate! 

Talking of climate, France's is doing a great impression of Nevada right now - you could imagine that's how deserts start. From early in the GFS and well into FI, you can see the desert-like airmass blowing across western Europe...

Make no mistake, prolonged heat and subzero dewpoints will turn things into a tinderbox. I'd expect wildfires aplenty if this comes off!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/32/25935/30_101irq7.GIF 

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https://images.meteociel.fr/im/54/11917/264_101cmb7.GIF 

UserPostedImage

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/63/6415/318_101shl3.GIF 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent

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