FAX - HP to the north of Scotland and LP over France with easterlies for England to start with; by Thu 16th the HP has moved to Norway and LP to Biscay so winds change to SE-ly (and hotter again?). Occasional showery troughs in the Channel.
GFS Op 0z - continues the above with shallow LP drifting northwards into the North Sea but making little impression on revived HP ridging from the SW to Scotland until Thu 23rd when this large area of HP withdraws to mid Atlantic and LP 1005mb swings down from the NW to Ireland. This LP introduces fresher NW-lies, later W-lies, and continues to affect Scotland while pressure remains relatively high for S England.
ECM to T+240 - similar to GFS though keeping pressure higher to the NW and any shallow LP being quickly snuffed out.
AIFS - London, maxima generally upper 20s C, dipping a little Sun 19th but back up above 30C Fri 24th; previous thundery breakdown this weekend has been written out but after Sat 25th cooler with some rain. Edinburgh, maxima 17C now, rising irregularly to 23C Tue 21st before dropping back to ca 20C. Trace of rain Sun 26th, otherwise dry.
GEFS - mean temp 5C above norm now, dropping back to norm over the next week and staying there to Tue 28th, generally good ens agreement though op, control and a couple of ens members promising 10C above norm for a couple of days around Tue 21st (only 5C above in Scotland). Small amounts of rain appearing from time to time in different runs after Wed 15th, but sometimes heavy in SW, least likely in Scotland
I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton
Chichester 12m asl