We'll see what transpires. I should have said "former heatwaves" pre 31-37C 😊

GFS Op 0z - the Azores high returns and drifts across to the N Sea 1020mb Fri 10th introducing hotter air from the south but also shallow low pressure from France into England 1010mb Sat 11th (thundery?), Then the HP returns in the shape of a ridge across Scotland , W-lies for the north (cool) and E-lies in the south (hot) before the HP retires to mid-Atlantic and sweeps all the heat away with a N-ly Sat 18th.

ECM to T +240 - like GFS, though not so much of a S-ly on Fri 10th, more of a gentle creep of hot air from the continent into the south

AIFS - London, maxima rising fairly steadily to 34C Sat 11th before dropping back to 25C from Tue 14th. Rain on Mon 13th. else dry. Edinburgh, maxima in upper teens except for a burst of warmth Thu/Fri 9th/10th at 25C, rain for a couple of days around Mon 6th and again Mon 13th.

GEFS - a general rise in mean temp  from Tue 7th to 6C above norm (a full week in S but only 4 or 5 days in N), dropping back to norm by 18th by which time ens agreement is poor. Chance of a little rain in the S around Tue 14th, chance of rain at any time in N.

I'm away for a week from tomorrow; chart reviews will depend on connectivity in mid-Wales and the time table of where I'm staying. They may be abbreviated, late or even missing.

I think this is looking increasingly the case. I’d suggest it’s unlikely now that areas will reach their heatwave thresholds

At least it’s usable weather and dry

It give plenty of times to enjoy this coming settled spell unlike the horrible heat spikes we had in recent years which give me no time to enjoy and too short settled time frame of few hours to a day.  Ensembles look very nice warm and dry. mid 20's to 30C days for here.

Yes, remember that summer very well. just finished school and preparing for uni.  Fantastic times.   though the same charts 31 years ago repeated now are likely to be a few degrees hotter

We're exactly the same age then. Best summer ever.

Yes, 2018 was the 1995 of this generation. Except that it came to an abrupt halt in August. Very front loaded. But a nice September. Probably the best vintage ever for English wine.

I agree. The latest GFS would make July an all-time classic too. Lowest max in London for the whole run is today at 26C, and from every day from Monday for at least 12 days hits 30C somewhere in the country.

One note of caution though: there is still a huge amount of scatter on the ensembles. As early as Monday the spread of 2m temps goes from 19C to 33C in London.

These are the GEFS 06Z 2m temperature forecasts for Monday. I agree there's still a wide range, and there's a dip around that time showing on the ECM ENS 850hPa temperature graph. Nonetheless, on the whole it looks very good to me.

None of the high 30’s silliness. Hopefully no ghastly coastal winds next week. 

Question is, at what point does heatwave threshold warrant its own thread? Not sure it does this time. 

AIFS hits 34C by Saturday and always seems to go low with 2m temps. And GFS still going for 36-37 but it has been a bit overkeen this summer so far!

I was 23 and at the Inland Revenue. The lack of concern over the high temps in the office - and lack of action by the jaded union rep led to me taking the rep's job on and becoming a right PITA.

I'm liking how the high is being shown to position on the recent output - over the northern half of the UK, bringing warm but not stupidly hot temps.

Yes, are you 50 yet? I will be in November.  Still a virgin of course

I probably saw these summers in an alternate universe where they also produced and played decent music... apologies for off topic.

I remember several summers like that. The Azores high remained over the Azores and consequently all the heat was bottled up on the continent. Seems like a distant memory now though .....

Same here, mid November.

Funnily enough that summer I was doing a holiday job in the Inland Revenue! In a very hot filing room.

GFS 12Z is still very keen on cranking up the heat to the mid 30s by the end of next week. Another solid 10 days of 30C+, which is considerably higher than most other output.

Having said that today has easily reached 27C across the SE and I am fairly sure there has been a 28 somewhere. GFS went for 27 while UKV went no higher than a Grinch-like 25C.

That GFS run would surely absolutely demolish the CET monthly record, we'd be way over 20C by the 17th.

Ends with 40c plus lol

It's incredible. I just referenced it in the heatwave thread. It's going for 40C.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1705921-Early-to-Mid-July-2026-Heatwave-discussion-and-analysis