The Weather Outlook

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The Beast from the East
28 June 2026 09:25:02
ECM and GFS at odds about whether the azores ridge can make it across. 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

White Meadows
28 June 2026 09:36:27
EC bullish still about hell on earth chapter 3:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Gfs not into it at all. AIFS shows a warm up, albeit only a heatwave of yesteryear with 30c maxes 

Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2026 09:48:43

EC bullish still about hell on earth chapter 3:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Gfs not into it at all. AIFS shows a warm up, albeit only a heatwave of yesteryear with 30c maxes 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Indeed AIFS looks quite pleasant compared to the brutally hot ECM this morning.  GEM goes very hot as well.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
28 June 2026 10:36:15

ECM and GFS at odds about whether the azores ridge can make it across. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

6z GFS changes tack- much closer to ECM.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2026 10:51:32

6z GFS changes tack- much closer to ECM.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Indeed a cheeky 41c again from the GFS 6z.  Definitely within the envelope of outcomes.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
28 June 2026 11:19:03

Indeed a cheeky 41c again from the GFS 6z.  Definitely within the envelope of outcomes.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

And hints of another wave to follow at the end of the run. Feels like this heat over Europe is going nowhere this summer, and we’ll (hopefully) get wave after wave of heat across us with brief respites

That’s not a forecast. Just a “feels like”


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Rob K
28 June 2026 11:19:37
7 more 30C days on the GFS 6Z and it looks like there would be more to come with HP in place across the south. Ensembles seem to be trending upwards too.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2026 17:58:08
Apparently ECM is having issues so we might not get an ECM 12z or AIFS 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
28 June 2026 18:03:43
UKMO 12Z looks fairly settled although not super warm as the HP is a bit far west, so the flow is slightly northerly. In fact it allows a bit of light rain in.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
28 June 2026 18:05:40

Apparently ECM is having issues so we might not get an ECM 12z or AIFS 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

"06z and 12z ECMWF runs will be heavily delayed because of a power issue at Bologna" as MC says. Interesting that they're not run at Reading any more!


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
28 June 2026 18:37:28
10 of the 12Z GEFS runs exceed 20C at 850mb, so holding pretty steady as far as heatwave potential goes. If you lower the threshold to 16C then 24 of them hit the target, albeit some of them only briefly.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
28 June 2026 21:28:08

"06z and 12z ECMWF runs will be heavily delayed because of a power issue at Bologna" as MC says. Interesting that they're not run at Reading any more!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

They were moved from Reading to Bologna in 2022.

https://annualreport.ecmwf.int/en/annual-report-2022/ecmwfs-data-handling-system-moves-reading-bologna 

The latest update on the situation is:

28 June 2026, 20:50 UTC Majority of 06 cycle products remain available for dissemination. The 12 cycle remains delayed. Recovery efforts continue. We will provide updates every hour. Next update 21:50 UTC. Our sincere apologies for the inconvenience.

 

There have also been issues with Meteo France data dissemination to OVHcloud today.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Tom Oxon
28 June 2026 22:29:28
My take is the ens outlook still looks super messy.  Some warm uppers but the ECM 12z op was definitely towards the top of the pack.

I think there's growing confidence week 2 of July is looking warmer, but I think we could be a way off getting a repeat of what we've just experienced.

That said, with high 20s, it would be really, really pleasant.


S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
The Beast from the East
29 June 2026 02:00:36
Has the ECM 12z come out yet?

GFS 18z looks very warm, though control shows how it could (hopefully from my POV) go pete tong


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Ally Pally Snowman
29 June 2026 04:39:28
Not good 🥵🥵🥵

Hopefully GFS 0z over doing it

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=0&time=207&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
29 June 2026 05:32:59

Not good 🥵🥵🥵

Hopefully GFS 0z over doing it

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=0&time=207&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Thought you like the heat?  This is the reality that heat dome won’t go away i think this summer until Autumn season end it.  Might get 3rd month in the row to break records. 

Ally Pally Snowman
29 June 2026 06:21:11

Thought you like the heat?  This is the reality that heat dome won’t go away i think this summer until Autumn season end it.  Might get 3rd month in the row to break records. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I do , but 41c is a bit much especially when you got to work. Most other output has mid 30s next week . Looks like a spell very similar to last week .


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
29 June 2026 06:24:01
If we get a direct hit from the heat dome I think the record will go next week.  GFS is a direct hit , GEM and AIFS 0z slightly flatter so "only" mid 30s.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
29 June 2026 06:40:45
Imagine December 81, Jan 87 and Feb 91 all bundled into one winter. It's looking like May, June and July 2026 could do exactly that for heat. 😂😂😂☀️
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Rob K
29 June 2026 06:43:57
GFS is another 76 special… although sadly social media seems to have already decided that modern hot spells don’t count. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 June 2026 06:59:19
FAX - A couple of depressions blowing in from the Atlantic and decaying over Britain, tomorrow (Tue) 1016mb N Ireland and Thu 2nd 1001mb Hebrides, before high pressure 1034mb some distance SW of Ireland sends a ridge across Britain on Fri 3rd.

GFS Op 0z - the centre of the high pressure from the 3rd slowly transfers to Germany Tue 7th but a potential warm southerly is soon dispelled as a depression scoots past NW Scotland turning winds back to the SW. New centre of high pressure soon appears from the SW and settles over Britain 1030mb from Sun 12th - looks like lots of hot sunshine but not too humid as the circulation is Atlantic in origin.

ECM to T+240 - like GFS/FAX but the high pressure moves across Britain more slowly and has only reached East Anglia Wed 8th with a trough from Biscay threatening the SW.

AIFS - London maxima rising slowly from 23C now to low 30s C by Tue 7th for a couple of days; back to 25C Fri 10th. Dry, just a splash on Fri 10th (=a long way off).  Edinburgh, mostly around 20C with a few isolated warmer days to 24C (Mon 6th, Wed 8th, Mon 13th). Rain in the next few days and then again on Fri 10th. 

GEFS - mean temp rising from norm now to 3 or 4C above norm (a couple of degrees more along the S coast; less marked in Scotland) Tue 7th- Thu 9th, with quite good ens support before an ens spread sets in (Scotland, ens spread from the word 'go') and the mean drops back. No rain in the S, not much in the rest of England, bits and pieces in Scotland except dry 7th-9th.

Something of a heat wave in the south early next week, but a lukewarm(?) copy of what we've just had.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Heavy Weather 2013
29 June 2026 07:20:38

If we get a direct hit from the heat dome I think the record will go next week.  GFS is a direct hit , GEM and AIFS 0z slightly flatter so "only" mid 30s.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

The number of +35C days this year could be crazy high. 


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Charmhills
29 June 2026 07:44:44

My take is the ens outlook still looks super messy.  Some warm uppers but the ECM 12z op was definitely towards the top of the pack.

I think there's growing confidence week 2 of July is looking warmer, but I think we could be a way off getting a repeat of what we've just experienced.

That said, with high 20s, it would be really, really pleasant.

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 

I think this coming warmer spell could be more pleasant with lower humidity/dew points for the UK.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Brian Gaze
29 June 2026 07:47:13

I think this coming warmer spell could be more pleasant with lower humidity/dew points for the UK.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

It could just be me, but some of the model output appears to show higher 2m temperatures with slightly lower 850hPa values, so perhaps a drier air mass as you suggest. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Crepuscular Ray
29 June 2026 07:53:18
Obviously I'm looking for some heat up here, 25 C is fine and if we could get 3 days of that to give us our first heatwave since 2022, I'd be happy

Looking at the big 3 00z's, Eastern Scotland remains with the Atlantic westerly for the first 10 days of July, so changeable and around 20 - 23 C at most

Looking at the GFS though, there does seem to be a build of heat northwards towards mid month 🤞


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

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