TBF the ensembles have enough very hot options to take note of them - unlike similar chases in winter for cold, the hot ones invariably seem to come off these days.

Here's last night's ECM output for London as an example.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts2/ecmhrens/ecmwfens2mtlondon.png 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op 0z - manages to slip in a fast-moving trough Tue 30th in addition to those shown on FAX. Then HP settles off SW Ireland typically 1030mb, near enough to ensure fine dry weather through to Mon 13th, but far enough to mean that the air circulating around will be from a pleasant W/NW direction. (there is a brief break with a shallow trough in the midst of a wider area of HP Fri 10th but that detail is a long way off)

ECM (to T +240) - similar to GFS; minor variations in that the trough on the 30th is more marked and supersedes anything on the 1st; and the subsequent HP is closer and moves in to cover Britain Tue 7th. EDIT and after T +240, continues to cover all of Britain except the far north, with stagnant air which should become increasingly hot. No sign of the Atlantic cavalry to the rescue.

AIFS - London, maximum drops to 24C Sun 28th then progressively rises to 30C Fri 10th (not quite as extreme as last night's 12z but still rather warm), a little rain (showers?) over this weekend then dry. Edinburgh, similar temp profile but about 6C below London; rain from time to time esp Tue 30th.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support drops to norm this weekend and stays there until Tue 7th. The mean continues near norm but an ens spread develops esp in the south with some very hot runs, the op being one such. The south has a little rain this weekend, then dry, grading to persistent rain over northern Scotland.

Starting to increasingly look that way. 50 years on from "The Daddy" of summers, is this "the New Daddy The Big Daddy" of summers?

I've always held a belief that the summer pattern sets in around the Soltice, just a feeling I have. I am starting to think this is "the one"!

28c, 30c, 29c, 30c, 31c, 34c, 36c, 33c, 33c, 35c

No surprise there, given that our summers have now become much drier and warmer, and given that we just don't get cool, wet and miserable summers here anymore.

I don't think every summer will be that way.

But we seem to be going through a period of hotter summers at the moment.

Like buses they all come at once.

WOW!!!! Yes please! I was starting to feel a little sad about the cooler weather. Hopefully it’s a blip

2024 was a below average summer with plenty of rain especially in Western Scotland.

We’d certainly have to go some to get a third consecutive monthly record, given July 2022! But never say never. 

And it’s a bit early to make any calls about school holidays considering they are still three weeks away!

Yes, no doubt it achieved some kind of average temp record but even down here in my corner of E-Sussex I remember 2024 as the summer that never happened. Despite the droughts and extreme heat there will still be years that don't deliver either. 

Yes, our memories are fickle. Remember the run of horrific summers between 2007 and 2012. Wet summers will return....admittedly a warmer version.....

 2012 was a long time ago though and I’m already fed up with waiting for the next wet summer.

I think the summers of 2017, 2019 and 2020 were also wetter than average. I guess we are “overdue” one based on statistics but as that is not how the weather works, nor indeed our recent climate, who knows when the next one will be.

That aside, as others have suggested, I think the cooldown to (closer to) average maybe be relatively short-lived based on the trends in the model output for the last day or two with the chance of more anomalous warmth in the medium term.

Brutal heat, a game changing summer perhaps.

Maybe lifechanging Snowman, if the wbt modelled around the Bristol area for july 12th were to come off.

34C wbt- with 35 thought to be not life sustaining.

Mmm, do you have a link for the 34C wbt chart? That seems rather high! (EDIT: For comparison, at one point yesterday here it was 30.3, dew 23.3, which gives a WBT of about 25C. At 40C you would need a dewpoint of 32 to get a 34C WBT, and at 35C it'd be 33. And below 34C it'd be impossible!

The dewpoint charts from the 12z GFS show a classic 2022-style desert-like effect with those high temperatures, the sort of dessicating heat which is most effective at making things tinder dry. I hope it doesn't happen, but I have a bit of a sinking feeling about it all!

Here's the chart for the 11th July, but the surrounding days are similar. Dewpoints are subzero across much of the Midlands, and earlier in the day they're as low as -3 - which, combined with an air temperature of 39C, works out as just 7% RH - dangerously dry.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/21/22674/336_101UKvhd7.GIF 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/88/19577/336_580UKjbn9.GIF