For my location it has 33/38/39/35/31. 

Quite odd to have the warning triangle on Monday with 33 but nothing for Wednesday with 39. Presumably the warnings will be extended soon. 

I mentioned this, this morning, that I expected the warning to be extended. Nothing has happened today to make me think that’s still not the case 

Agree. I mentioned this somewhere else.

That's not true, I acknowledged there were some forecasts showing 40C (exceptional by any definition) but struggled to find any excitement for it because its all becoming desensitising. I never implied that exceptional weather was not on the cards.

The lower res models are managing to generate some convective activity but it doesn't seem to be having a cooling effect, probably because its being modelled as dispersed light precipitation rather than localised intense storms. Need to get the higher res models into the right timeframe to get a reading on this.

Nope

“Become a bit desensitized to it, but I've seen plenty of runs with near all time T850 records and 40C surface temps.

Post 2022 it just doesn't have the same hype though.”

Now you’re interested….

Its been upgraded from 'as extreme as 2022 given the time of year' to 'quite alot more extreme than 2022 given the time of year'. But as I say I've become a bit desensitized to it all. Even if we break an all time record next week (which looks a possibility now) it will probably be broken again in a couple of years anyway. Its a comment on how rapid things are warming really.

Anyway speaking of extreme, ARPEGE now has a full 41C contour visible on the Wednesday. 

By far the hottest run so far.

Max temps

Sunday 32c

Monday 35c

Tuesday 41c

Wednesday 42c

On Wednesday night it's still 31c at 3am in some parts of the Southwest!

That is astonishing!! Quite dangerous for some.

I think it's clear now that the excessive heat will reach as far north as Manchester across to York

North of that, a summer mix of fresh SW winds and sunny spells and showers, just like the Spring & Summer so far. We saw a 25 C in Edinburgh in the May hot spell. I suspect Glasgow & Edinburgh may see a 25 C again next week.

Not sure why not London get the hottest night since it a city and there no city in the SW with narrow land more sea around it and hilly areas.  For here expecting today around 30 from today to 38C  with wall to wall sunshine. 

The core of the heat is actually further west on most models as there is a bit of an easterly flow. 

I’ve also noticed that as the UK temperature gets increased, the max in France seems to drop, from 45-46 modelled a few days ago to 42-43 now. 

Tue to Thursday now showing as 38/39/37 on the Met O site for me. I can’t find any location giving a forecast 40… yet.  BBC still lagging with 34/36/36 and iPhone 34/35/34. 

Edit: in fact Reading does now have 40C on the Met auto output for Wednesday. 

Sun: 30C

Mon: 32C

Tue: 37C

Wed: 38C

Thu: 40C

I’m starting to think the peak heat day may now be Thursday.

To be fair you could say the red warning should be for three days!

I’ve always wondered how the models deal

with an easterly drift. Sometimes I think they over doo the impact into London. For instance tomorrow at has 26C for London on the grid point.

Yes someone posted the temps for Shropshire going for 34 to 35 which is over a hour drive north from here so the iPhone app only show 32 so if near or 40 just SW of me then i expect here 38C.  

But I think 40c somewhere between Tuesday and Thursday is now 50% imo. 

That's crazy

Really? Then amazing.

Here, in the rain shadow east of Dartmoor there's no sign of any rain for a couple of weeks, and it looks like all will be dust and varying amounts of heat, often excessive and for several week, if not months.

It's all really hard to take.

If that had been a day earlier it would have been a date record. Record for today is -2.2, for the 20th it is only -1.0C. Although I assume that wasn’t at an official site?

BTW the max yesterday was 27.7C at Writtle, which was a degree or two higher than most models went for. 

I don't want to either be upset by the views of other or indeed upset them with mine. I just want to get through this while being informed.

So something like a 'Heatwave - how to cope, what are the prospects of relief'? Thread and a 'Heatwave, will it last'  thread.

That’s an interesting point. Surely there has to be a chance the warnings go red?

Genuine idea - check them into a hotel with aircon until this is over?

We're seriously considering doing this for my wife's elderly parents. They're in Bristol and don't cope well in the heat. Their house is like a furnace in hot weather so goodness knows what it will be like if some of the worse predictions come to pass.

That’ll keep it out of the news. If it didn’t happen In London, it didn’t happen 

With a 93 year old, mobile but altzheimic, father to look after? Who would sit out in this and cook if I didn't stop him.

Matty, I am, honestly, happy for you. I know you enjoy hot weather, but for me this is a test of my resilience.

There are hundreds of thousands of people like my father, or me, who will be severely tested this week.