The Weather Outlook

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Matty H
20 June 2026 22:36:55

That's not true, I acknowledged there were some forecasts showing 40C (exceptional by any definition) but struggled to find any excitement for it because its all becoming desensitising. I never implied that exceptional weather was not on the cards.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Nope

“Become a bit desensitized to it, but I've seen plenty of runs with near all time T850 records and 40C surface temps.

Post 2022 it just doesn't have the same hype though.”

Now you’re interested….

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Quantum
21 June 2026 00:48:49

Nope

“Become a bit desensitized to it, but I've seen plenty of runs with near all time T850 records and 40C surface temps.

Post 2022 it just doesn't have the same hype though.”

Now you’re interested….

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Its been upgraded from 'as extreme as 2022 given the time of year' to 'quite alot more extreme than 2022 given the time of year'. But as I say I've become a bit desensitized to it all. Even if we break an all time record next week (which looks a possibility now) it will probably be broken again in a couple of years anyway. Its a comment on how rapid things are warming really.

Anyway speaking of extreme, ARPEGE now has a full 41C contour visible on the Wednesday. 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

scillydave
21 June 2026 05:18:27
Those of a nervous disposition may not want to look at the Arpege 0z

By far the hottest run so far.

Max temps

Sunday 32c

Monday 35c

Tuesday 41c

Wednesday 42c

On Wednesday night it's still 31c at 3am in some parts of the Southwest!

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

+2
Crepuscular Ray
21 June 2026 05:29:52

MetO app now has this for London

Mon: 32C

Tues: 39C

Wed: 37C

Thu: 36C

Fri: 32C

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

That is astonishing!! Quite dangerous for some.

I think it's clear now that the excessive heat will reach as far north as Manchester across to York

North of that, a summer mix of fresh SW winds and sunny spells and showers, just like the Spring & Summer so far. We saw a 25 C in Edinburgh in the May hot spell. I suspect Glasgow & Edinburgh may see a 25 C again next week.

Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Jiries
21 June 2026 05:49:37

Those of a nervous disposition may not want to look at the Arpege 0z

By far the hottest run so far.

Max temps

Sunday 32c

Monday 35c

Tuesday 41c

Wednesday 42c

On Wednesday night it's still 31c at 3am in some parts of the Southwest!

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

Not sure why not London get the hottest night since it a city and there no city in the SW with narrow land more sea around it and hilly areas.  For here expecting today around 30 from today to 38C  with wall to wall sunshine. 

Rob K
21 June 2026 06:19:42

Not sure why not London get the hottest night since it a city and there no city in the SW with narrow land more sea around it and hilly areas.  For here expecting today around 30 from today to 38C  with wall to wall sunshine. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

The core of the heat is actually further west on most models as there is a bit of an easterly flow. 

I’ve also noticed that as the UK temperature gets increased, the max in France seems to drop, from 45-46 modelled a few days ago to 42-43 now. 

Tue to Thursday now showing as 38/39/37 on the Met O site for me. I can’t find any location giving a forecast 40… yet.  BBC still lagging with 34/36/36 and iPhone 34/35/34. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
21 June 2026 06:22:55
UKV 03z UK Max from Sunday:

Sun: 30C

Mon: 32C

Tue: 37C

Wed: 38C

Thu: 40C

I’m starting to think the peak heat day may now be Thursday.

To be fair you could say the red warning should be for three days!

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Heavy Weather 2013
21 June 2026 06:26:38

The core of the heat is actually further west on most models as there is a bit of an easterly flow. 

I’ve also noticed that as the UK temperature gets increased, the max in France seems to drop, form 45-46 modelled a few days ago to 42-43 now. 

Tue to Thursday now showing as 38/39/37 on the Met O site for me. I can’t find any location giving a forecast 40… yet

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I’ve always wondered how the models deal

with an easterly drift. Sometimes I think they over doo the impact into London. For instance tomorrow at has 26C for London on the grid point.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Jiries
21 June 2026 06:32:57

The core of the heat is actually further west on most models as there is a bit of an easterly flow. 

I’ve also noticed that as the UK temperature gets increased, the max in France seems to drop, from 45-46 modelled a few days ago to 42-43 now. 

Tue to Thursday now showing as 38/39/37 on the Met O site for me. I can’t find any location giving a forecast 40… yet.  BBC still lagging with 34/36/36 and iPhone 34/35/34. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes someone posted the temps for Shropshire going for 34 to 35 which is over a hour drive north from here so the iPhone app only show 32 so if near or 40 just SW of me then i expect here 38C.  

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