The Arpege charts are insane. The location of the heat in particular will exacerbate problems. London might get the odd day in the high 30s but Bristol and Cardiff definitely don't. Cardiff's all time record is 33.5c - that would be smashed by roughly 5c on these charts. Bristol might hit 40c for gods sake.

Clearly it's one run at 3 or 4 days out and very unlikely to verify as is but it's just extraordinary nonetheless. 

The MetO raw this morning (at half six) for Tuesday for here, then at half five this evening and again just now...

Yes, that's gone up by 9 poxy degrees in the space of half a day. Utterly bonkers!

Heathrow is now showing 39C on Tuesday on the MetO raw.

Even without a city there you'd expect the hottest temperatures in the UK in what's now London. Especially West London. Very close to sea level, in the SE corner, sheltered from marine influence by the downs and Surrey Hills. It's microclimatically ideal.

Heathrow is often top in straight southerlies. It has the Surrey hills and the highest part of the North Downs directly to its South. Dewpoints there often dip suddenly in those Southerlies, as famously they did in 2003. This is the mini Foehn Darren mentions in relation to East Kent too 

I think Edinburgh will still be warm 23-26 C maybe but more cloud and threat of rain

All time thickness record in the UK is 578dm

Darren will fall of his chair when he sees that 579 over the UK is astonishing. 

You were asking what the hype was about on the model thread a couple of days ago 

Until now the app having none of it, it been so insisting we not getting a major heatwave just cloudy, rainy and temps only up to 31C when most charts and other people showing their apps show full sunshine mid 30's and high 30's over SE.  I still expecting full sunshine from tomorrow onward and rising temperatures to low 30's.  That single 37C I see is over west of Birmingham area.

I certainly wouldn’t have thought in July 2022 that we’d see 40C again in less than 4 years time but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised. The charts just seem to keep getting hotter. 

31c, 31c, 34c, 37c, 37c, 34c, 29c

And we know that tends to underestimate as well.

Could need a historic heat watch thread. Can’t believe this could be the third in 7 years.

Edit: I notice the UKV now forecasting 39c on 2 seperate days (Tuesday/Thurs). The met office website has quite a large area forecast 39c, from London to Cambridge.

Mon: 32C

Tues: 39C

Wed: 37C

Thu: 36C

Fri: 32C

Be amazing if we can smash 40c+ again. Really really hope we do it 

I’ve been on this forum since the start and recall convos where it was stated there was no chance we’d break 40c in the UK 

For my location it has 33/38/39/35/31. 

Quite odd to have the warning triangle on Monday with 33 but nothing for Wednesday with 39. Presumably the warnings will be extended soon. 

I mentioned this, this morning, that I expected the warning to be extended. Nothing has happened today to make me think that’s still not the case 

Agree. I mentioned this somewhere else.

That's not true, I acknowledged there were some forecasts showing 40C (exceptional by any definition) but struggled to find any excitement for it because its all becoming desensitising. I never implied that exceptional weather was not on the cards.

The lower res models are managing to generate some convective activity but it doesn't seem to be having a cooling effect, probably because its being modelled as dispersed light precipitation rather than localised intense storms. Need to get the higher res models into the right timeframe to get a reading on this.