FAX - HP 1025 mb over Britain and most of the central Continent but 1016mb Spain; weak Atlantic fronts affecting Scotland later. From here to Thu 25th, HP over Britain drifts slowly east into Scandinavia and the LP over Spain moves north with troughs into SW England and Ireland.
GFS Op 0z - the LP from Spain continues northwards and by Sun 28th has combined with Atlantic LP to bring in some gentle westerlies, though the far SE may hang on to continental heat. A ridge of HP from the Azores then comes and goes; Wed 1st across the South (fresh in Scotland, warm on the south coast), Sun 5th across Scotland (fine there, easterlies for the Channel). Finally Tue 5th Britain lies in a col between 1030mb Azores and 1020mb Baltic.
ECM - much like GFS
AIFS - London, peak maxima Wed/Thu 24th/25th at 37C dropping to 25C or therabouts with a little rain Sun 28th and staying there for the following week. Edinburgh, peaks at 25C Tue 23rd and Fri 26th, then down to high teens from Sun 28th. Some rain Thu 25th, rather more Wed 1st.
GEFS - In the south, mean and ens temps 13C above norm this week, dropping sharply to *only* 4 or 5C above norm Sun 28th with several runs showing heavy rain at that time (which wasn't there in that quantity yesterday). Mean continues at that level but with big ens spread, also some chance of rain at times. In the north, the hot spell is less extreme, and end-loaded (more of a peak on 26th, not as much of a plateau as in the south). Greater chance of rain into week 2 but not in all runs.
Originally Posted by: DEW