GFS Op 0z - Once the hot air has been imported as per FAX it stagnates , even affecting the far N, under the influence of HP covering Britain. From Fri 26th the pressure drops as LP 1015mb moves up from France but still hot (and thundery?) until Wed 1st when the centre of this LP moves east across England and brings in cooler air from the north.

ECM - goes for a much shortened hot spell; after Wed 24th a more active Atlantic pushes the hot air back to the SE and replaces it by cooler W/NW-lies; LP 990mb develops on the Norwegian coast Sat 27th, with trough to SE England.

AIFS - London,  maxima rising to 35C Tue 23rd then staying at 30C to Sun 28th and dry. Mon/Tue 29th/30th much cooler at 20C and wet. Edinburgh, rising to 23C Tue 23rd (there's a temp gradient for you!) after which variable mostly around 17C, rain quite frequent with only a brief dry slot Wed/Thu 24th/25th.

GEFS - in the S, mean temp about 8C above norm to Mon 29th though slow to reach the peak in the SW (quite good ens agreement though not a few even hotter outliers up to 12c above), dropping back to norm or just above from Wed 1st. Very little chance of rain., some in the SW later. In Scotland and England from the Midlands northwards, a pulse of warmth this Sat, then cooler before rising to a mean of  5 or 6C above norm from Tue 23rd and dropping back to norm from the 1st. Chances of rain today & tomorrow and again from Fri 26th always heavier in Scotland.

Still uncertain as to how much heat will be imported from across the Channel, how far north and for how long.

Based on the radar, it looks like the UKV did well. I think it had the ppt too far west, but overall it did a lot better than the other models I saw.

In the end there was a bit of both - the trough (as shown on the "fax" charts, albeit it looked like a small low to me on the radar) started off with heavy downpours moving across down here, some purples on the radar for a time in eastern Kent, then a more general area of rain to follow. There was 1.4mm from it here, about half an hour of rain in total.

No rain here although it did look quite threatening for a while. UKV suggested I was in the firing line but looks like I need to get the watering can out again.

BTW the 12Z GFS is anothe rhot one but then gets quite wet across the south as a slow-moving low wedges itself in between the two HPs.

Post 2022 it just doesn't have the same hype though.

I'm hyped! maybe you should get your hormone levels checked 🙂

Loving the recent trends of the high pushing east and north T 850 temps of 21c in Cumbria? yes please.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=2&time=204&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=1&mv=0#mapref 

The 12z has the mean 850mb 15°C isotherm from 22nd to 29th.

AIFS 12z mean above 20c now. Crazy times.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Not only that but t2m values here reach above average for a day or two!

Yes easterlies not helping you even with way above average 850s. Hopefully you can get a hot spell at some point this summer.

GFS Op 0z - following on from FAX, HP revives over Scotland and slack LP moves up from Spain; these two dance around each other with a direct SE-ly flow established by Thu 25th. From Sun 28th LP moves from mid-Atlantic to N Scotland (1000mb Tue 30th) with eventually cooler westerlies for all. For the rest of the period to Sun 5th there is a nondescript W or NW-ly drift for Britain.

ECM - very much like GFS

AIFS - London, maxima in upper 20s through to Tue 30th with as couple of spikes through to 30+C Tue 23rd and Sat 27th. Then back to 25C with significant rain Wed 1st. Edinburgh, warming to 20C with only Sun 28th breaking 25C.Dry-ish for the beginning of next week but otherwise rain at times.

GEFS - mean 8-10C above norm in the S until Sun 28th when mean slowly drops back to norm, the 'slowly' being the average of ens members which drop off one by one (control quickly, op slowly). Little rain, perhaps a bit as July starts esp in N England. In Scotland , less etreme heat and slower to start (not until Tue 23rd) which marks the start of a few dry days, otherwise smal amounts of rain on many days.

Manky Monday, Terrible Tuesday, Woeful Wednesday... I won't go as far as Friday! 😂

You can see why the Met Office issued that amber weather warning, and why they did it unusually far in advance. The output is coalescing around a truly remarkable spell, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the 1976 record fall. (And if it does, at least it'll dent the "it's just summer", "1976 was hotter" type stuff you see online). 

(ICON, FWIW, has "only" 34C on Tuesday, but even that is a good 13C or so above average for the time of year. Truly remarkable output all round, really.)

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/22/27893/iconeu_uk1_31_102_0rih9.png 

Irish sea coasts around here looking to have a few tropical nights coming by the 20c definition, with temps around 25c at 9pm and 9am bedrooms will be sticky in the towns.

Bought the last available portable aircon unit from the local screw fix earlier.. Blyss 9000 BTU. 

Met office have 4 consecutive ones for this location. And the nights either side of the run are both 19 so we could actually end up with 5 or 6 consecutive tropical nights 🥵

GEFS has 10/30 forecasting 37c, 5/10 forecasting 38c, and 1 forecasting 40c for wednesday. The peak seems to have shifted forward a day.

GFS Op 0z; That HP sticks around the N Sea/Baltic and with shallow LP drifting north from Spain up to the west of Ireland, the hot southerly flow is maintained across Britain to Sat 27th. That LP then exerts a bit more influence with weak westerlies for the north but the hot air never leaves the south, through to Fri 3rd. Then a heat low from Spain moves north to the Channel and brings in something a little cooler (and more disturbed?) for Britain over the weekend 4th/5th. But the heat is not far away and could still affect the SE .

ECM - agrees with GFS (to T+240 = Mon 29th at time of posting)

AIFS - London, heat builds to a peak of 36C on Wed 24th and then slides back down to maximum of 23C Mon 29th, continuing to decline to 20C by Sat 4th. Some rain Sat 27th, spits and spots at other times. Edinburgh, reaches a peak of 25C Tue 23rd and a secondary peak 23C 23C Fri 26th, then slides to 16/17C Mon 29th onwards. Some rain on most days after Fri 26th, just a little before that.

GEFS - In the S, a heat bulge (rather than a peak) Mon 22nd to Sat 27th, up to 13C above norm, then mean temp drifts down surrounded by a cluster of ens members to a couple of degrees above norm from Wed 1st (op is a hotter outlier at the end). Chance of rain from time to time but not shown in every run. Somewhat similar in the north, but only 9 or 10C above norm and end-loaded, more runs showing rain from time to time but no definite pattern.

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_114_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_150_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_162_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_168_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

That is going to feel so oppressive! Being in the city I imagine those nights will take a long time to fall to those values if they even drop that low. 

The fat modus darts players are going to struggle.

Arpege 6Z has 39C for Tuesday now (and 36C for Monday). The 6Z doesn't go out to Wednesday afternoon (but is already at 34C by 12Z on Wednesday)

And the 12z has two days of 40C in the UK.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/31/17504/arpege_31_78_0acz8.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/96/9852/arpege_31_102_0wjl7.png 

Arpege showing 35°C at 10am Tuesday, Hampshire/Berkshire border.

8/30: 38c

4/30: 39c

1/30: 40c (P11)