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6z GFS keeps going
from tomorrow
29c, 31c, 34c, 38c, 36c, 36c, 29c, 32c, 34c, 30c
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
Yep, my "relief from the heat" comment sees temps down to "just 29c" for one day (Saturday). Longer term, the high pressure repositions itself and then sits over the UK. A very long dry spell looks a certainty, on top of the extreme heat this week.
I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't the hottest spell of the summer, with July and August to come.
This could be "the one" the new Daddy of UK summers.
100m ASL
Originally Posted by: moomin75
Could be, but the British summer will always be unpredictable. But the way heat domes are forming over the continent this year suggests it's a possibility.
TBFTEIARBSC
It's terribly sad. A week of super hot and dry air will do much damage (some permanent) to vegetation and our trees.
Originally Posted by: Devonian
Yes, but who cares if you can get a nice tan or a new record? I fully understand that there is nothing that can be done short term and people that enjoy this are entitled to enjoy it and observe new records being made. What I don't get is the gleeful attitude of many towards Net Zero becoming unpopular and the usual pathetic "what difference will my bit do" attitude. I could understand it if it was just the petrol heads and erstwhile climate change deniers but it's not is it. Even some intelligent people seem to going with this current trend. You can have a successful economy and big profits for a while but it won't make water or replace the life forms that are rapidly declining because of it. Believe me the mass extinction has started and like everything else we are just accepting it as a nuisance and poodling along!
GFS 6z from tomorrow
29c, 31c, 34c, 38c, 36c, 36c, 29c
Actually even hotter than that on the high-res grid. I make it:
29C, 31C, 35C, 38C, 36C, 37C, 30C, 33C, 34C, 30C, 30C, 32C, 28C, 25C, 23C.
11 consecutive 30C days which would be 19 in total by July 2nd.
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Originally Posted by: Rob K
And yet some people will still claim 76 was hotter as it gets shunted even further down the list
Met Office automated output has certainly ramped up from yesterday. For my location max/min from today to Friday are now:
Sat: 25/14
Sun: 30/17
Mon: 32/18
Tue: 36/19
Wed: 35/21
Thu: 33/20
Fri: 32/20
BBC is a little cooler, peaking at 34/19 on both Tue and Wed.
Already gone higher - now
Sat: 25/15
Mon: 33/18
Tue: 37/19
Wed: 36/22 (!)
Thu: 34/21
Fri: 32/20.
I think even back in 2022 the auto forecast for here never went above 37. Certainly not four days ahead.
Originally Posted by: Matty H
This is an interesting graph, posted on Twitter last year, showing the number of 30C days each year. 1995 was in a league of its own but even 2018 surpassed 1976. I am not sure what the final total for 2025 was.
https://x.com/SnowbieWx/status/1943327382267404334?s=20
Also interesting to note that both 1995 (34 days) and 2018 (28 days) each had more 30C days than the entire 1960s (25 days in total!). The 60s really did have rubbish summers didn't they?
Originally Posted by: fairweather
The problem is, there is almost becoming a view that people are not allowed to enjoy a hot spell any more because of it's seen as celebrating climate change. It's also getting to a point where every notable warm spell is always immediately blamed on it, and I think both of those attitudes are unhelpful. And yes, on the flip side, I also direct criticism towards the "but 1976" brigade downplaying genuine notable heat. Both sides are becoming too polarised and militant about it, and it's deeply irritating.
Sure, in this case, what is being modelled is not natural for the UK, so I accept that point. However, from a purely personal point of view, it won't stop me enjoying it and making the most of it and hoping for more heat later on in the summer. As a weather enthusiast and a heat lover, it will a nice change from the weeks of mid-teens, rain and overcast skies with an annoying stiff wind that this area has had here since the last week of May. I make absolutely no apologies for that.
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
It's a fascinating outlook. The AIFS suggests a higher degree of confidence from 28/06 into early July than on the details for the coming week. So I think there's still a fair amount of doubt about how high temperatures will go in the coming days.
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
It's odd that the amber warning is only for Monday and Tuesday when most of the modelling suggests Wednesday will be the hottest, and Monday will barely hit 30C.
What more do you expect people to do? Governments, corporations and many individuals are going gung ho towards renewables, climate aside, because the economics makes sense. Solar is so cheap now that why wouldn't you try to harvest as much of it as possible? Shy of just turning civilisation off, the world is moving as fast as it can in the right direction.
I have just been thinking the same thing, with Thursday looking almost as hot as Wednesday. Maybe the area of extreme heat is different and things are changing to rapidly for the warning to be updated, although the MetO site has updated & expanded the areas covered Monday to Tuesday I note.
Tom S on the Beeb has implied the June record is very likely to go with London already expecting 36°.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Clearly the British climate is getting warmer at a rapid rate, whatever the causes. I just hope that if a new temperature record is set it’s not at bloody Heathrow.
Heat domes was never used this wording until they started using it when it hit Canada and NW USA with extreme temperatures only come to the end when the season change occur. I wonder if our heat dome for W Europe is the theme for this summer that might stay until late August or early September to fizzle out completely. Most times E Europe to E Med had those for years now nothing this year no heatwave occured yet on those regions, just average to below average at times.
I also notice why it so hot in W France next to the 3000 miles of ocean and never show this over eastward with Germany not get much just standard heatwave levels.
https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcpszc12r#?date=2026-06-20
And the Arpege is utterly bonkers tonight. Just the French charts available so far, but that's two days of 40 in the UK...
https://images.meteociel.fr/im/31/17504/arpege_31_78_0acz8.png
https://images.meteociel.fr/im/96/9852/arpege_31_102_0wjl7.png
Originally Posted by: saxtemp
That wasn't really my point. It is the celebration of people and politicians like our new Reform councillors who are precisely reversing such initiatives and people stating that moving towards net zero is a waste of time and those that claim their little bit makes no difference. Like you basically say - they must have money to literally burn.
I am also fed up with how politicised hot weather has become. On one side you have alarmism trying to link literally any weather event to catastrophic climate change. On the other hand you have the GB News brigade claiming that it was much hotter in the past and all new temperature records are fake.
We know the causes.
The MetO raw now has 38s west of London on Wednesday, and some 36s/37s on Thursday - that amber warning surely has to be extended tomorrow!
Originally Posted by: Retron
Just staggering, would beat the June record by 4c . Nuts
The politics of net zero is ******** though. One reform council no longer paying through the roof to their mates contractor to install useless 7KW EV chargers in council car parks isn't going to make a bit of difference when private companies are installing 50KW+ chargers at record rates. 'Net Zero' by and large is a grift at best, and at worst, it turns people into climate sceptics.
Mod: I think this is going off-topic now, I seem to recall a 'breakout' thread where stuff like this should be posted instead?
There or Kew Gardens. Regardless of what anyone says to me, it’s not just coincidence that takes top spot most days in any hot spell. Something that’s not just the actual weather impacts the readings there
The MetO raw now has 38s west of London on Tuesday, and some 36s/37s on Wednesday - that amber warning surely has to be extended tomorrow!
The Met Office auto now has 38, 36, 34 for Tuesday to Thursday for my location.
BBC goes for 34, 35, 34. So still no agreement on which is the hottest day.
And FWIW it already feels really warm this evening now the sun has broken through, when it is only 25C!
BTW Darren the zoomable Arpege charts are up and show 40C around Bedford on Tuesday and in Somerset and Gloucestershire on Wednesday. It also has a small area with MINIMA of 28C in Somerset overnight Wed-Thu, and 27s quite widely. And 850mb temperatures hit 26C.
Are there still any dramatic thunderstorms forecast in the outlook?
Hopefully not, and I don’t know why anyone would celebrate them. They could start a wildfire or hit a tree or an elderly lady
👍Arpege 2m tmax / tmin are stepped at 3 hour intervals (I think) regardless of where you source them. On Wednesday the thinned grid for the UK is showing 41C. I don't have time to check out the full grid to see if there's a 42C hiding away.