Well you can normally add 2c to ECM max temps. So 40c is definitely an option next week.  I'd give it a 30% chance atm. 

What does that even mean in practice?  I can understand a wind or snow warning red, but heat? What is the advice? Stay indoors? As if most Brits will listen to that!  Head to the beach or jump in the nearest lake will be what happens as it always does, with a few drownings most likely again.

Guaranteed to be cooler.

29c, 31c, 34c, 38c, 36c, 36c, 29c

If, and still a big 'If' at this timescale, that we're to verify then it would be the hottest period of weather ever recorded in the UK (in terms of consecutive high temps)

Yes still just to far out to be certain,  but if we were to beat the June record 3 days in a row it would be unprecedented. 

Starting to get a feeling about this summer, as I've always been a believer that the general summer pattern sets in around the solstice.

Was certainly the case in 2006, 2007, 2012 and 2022.

Could we be on the cusp of a record breaking summer?

from tomorrow

29c, 31c, 34c, 38c, 36c, 36c, 29c, 32c, 34c, 30c 

Yep, my "relief from the heat" comment sees temps down to "just 29c" for one day (Saturday). Longer term, the high pressure repositions itself and then sits over the UK. A very long dry spell looks a certainty, on top of the extreme heat this week.

I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't the hottest spell of the summer, with July and August to come.

This could be "the one" the new Daddy of UK summers.

Could be, but the British summer will always be unpredictable.  But the way heat domes are forming over the continent this year suggests it's a possibility. 

Yes, but who cares if you can get a nice tan or a new record? I fully understand that there is nothing that can be done short term and people that enjoy this are entitled to enjoy it and observe new records being made. What I don't get is the gleeful attitude of many towards Net Zero becoming unpopular and the usual pathetic "what difference will my bit do" attitude. I  could understand it if it was just the petrol heads and erstwhile climate change deniers but it's not is it. Even some intelligent people  seem to going with this current trend. You can have a successful economy and big profits for a while but it won't make water or replace the life forms that are rapidly declining because of it. Believe me the mass extinction has started and like everything else we are just accepting it as a nuisance and poodling along!

Actually even hotter than that on the high-res grid. I make it:

29C, 31C, 35C, 38C, 36C, 37C, 30C, 33C, 34C, 30C, 30C, 32C, 28C, 25C, 23C.

11 consecutive 30C days which would be 19 in total by July 2nd.

And yet some people will still claim 76 was hotter as it gets shunted even further down the list

Already gone higher - now

Sat: 25/15

Sun: 30/17

Mon: 33/18

Tue: 37/19

Wed: 36/22 (!)

Thu: 34/21

Fri: 32/20.

I think even back in 2022 the auto forecast for here never went above 37. Certainly not four days ahead.

This is an interesting graph, posted on Twitter last year, showing the number of 30C days each year. 1995 was in a league of its own but even 2018 surpassed 1976. I am not sure what the final total for 2025 was.

https://x.com/SnowbieWx/status/1943327382267404334?s=20 

Also interesting to note that both 1995 (34 days) and 2018 (28 days) each had more 30C days than the entire 1960s (25 days in total!). The 60s really did have rubbish summers didn't they?

The problem is, there is almost becoming a view that people are not allowed to enjoy a hot spell any more because of it's seen as celebrating climate change. It's also getting to a point where every notable warm spell is always immediately blamed on it, and I think both of those attitudes are unhelpful. And yes, on the flip side, I also direct criticism towards the "but 1976" brigade downplaying genuine notable heat. Both sides are becoming too polarised and militant about it, and it's deeply irritating.

Sure, in this case, what is being modelled is not natural for the UK, so I accept that point. However, from a purely personal point of view, it won't stop me enjoying it and making the most of it and hoping for more heat later on in the summer. As a weather enthusiast and a heat lover, it will a nice change from the weeks of mid-teens, rain and overcast skies with an annoying stiff wind that this area has had here since the last week of May. I make absolutely no apologies for that.

It's odd that the amber warning is only for Monday and Tuesday when most of the modelling suggests Wednesday will be the hottest, and Monday will barely hit 30C.

I have just been thinking the same thing, with Thursday looking almost as hot as Wednesday. Maybe the area of extreme heat is different and things are changing to rapidly for the warning to be updated, although the MetO site has updated & expanded the areas covered Monday to Tuesday I note.

Tom S on the Beeb has implied the June record is very likely to go with London already expecting 36°.

Clearly the British climate  is getting warmer at a rapid rate, whatever the causes. I just hope that if a new temperature record is set it’s not at bloody Heathrow. 

Heat domes was never used this wording until they started using it when it hit Canada and NW USA with extreme temperatures only come to the end when the season change occur.  I wonder if our heat dome for W Europe is the theme for this summer that might stay until late August or early September to fizzle out completely.  Most times E Europe to E Med had those for years now nothing this year no heatwave occured yet on those regions, just average to below average at times.

I also notice why it so hot in W France next to the 3000 miles of ocean and never show this over eastward with Germany not get much just standard heatwave levels.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcpszc12r#?date=2026-06-20 

And the Arpege is utterly bonkers tonight. Just the French charts available so far, but that's two days of 40 in the UK...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/31/17504/arpege_31_78_0acz8.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/96/9852/arpege_31_102_0wjl7.png 

We know the causes.