Just staggering,  would beat the June record by 4c . Nuts

There or Kew Gardens. Regardless of what anyone says to me, it’s not just coincidence that takes top spot most days in any hot spell. Something that’s not just the actual weather impacts the readings there 

The Met Office auto now has 38, 36, 34 for Tuesday to Thursday for my location.

BBC goes for 34, 35, 34. So still no agreement on which is the hottest day.

And FWIW it already feels really warm this evening now the sun has broken through, when it is only 25C!

BTW Darren the zoomable Arpege charts are up and show 40C around Bedford on Tuesday and in Somerset and Gloucestershire on Wednesday. It also has a small area with MINIMA of 28C in Somerset overnight Wed-Thu, and 27s quite widely. And 850mb temperatures hit 26C.

Hopefully not, and I don’t know why anyone would celebrate them. They could start a wildfire or hit a tree or an elderly lady

👍Arpege 2m tmax / tmin are stepped at 3 hour intervals (I think) regardless of where you source them. On Wednesday the thinned grid for the UK is showing 41C. I don't have time to check out the full grid to see if there's a 42C hiding away.

The Arpege charts are insane. The location of the heat in particular will exacerbate problems. London might get the odd day in the high 30s but Bristol and Cardiff definitely don't. Cardiff's all time record is 33.5c - that would be smashed by roughly 5c on these charts. Bristol might hit 40c for gods sake.

Clearly it's one run at 3 or 4 days out and very unlikely to verify as is but it's just extraordinary nonetheless. 

The MetO raw this morning (at half six) for Tuesday for here, then at half five this evening and again just now...

Yes, that's gone up by 9 poxy degrees in the space of half a day. Utterly bonkers!

Heathrow is now showing 39C on Tuesday on the MetO raw.

Even without a city there you'd expect the hottest temperatures in the UK in what's now London. Especially West London. Very close to sea level, in the SE corner, sheltered from marine influence by the downs and Surrey Hills. It's microclimatically ideal.

Heathrow is often top in straight southerlies. It has the Surrey hills and the highest part of the North Downs directly to its South. Dewpoints there often dip suddenly in those Southerlies, as famously they did in 2003. This is the mini Foehn Darren mentions in relation to East Kent too 

I think Edinburgh will still be warm 23-26 C maybe but more cloud and threat of rain

All time thickness record in the UK is 578dm

Darren will fall of his chair when he sees that 579 over the UK is astonishing. 

You were asking what the hype was about on the model thread a couple of days ago 

Until now the app having none of it, it been so insisting we not getting a major heatwave just cloudy, rainy and temps only up to 31C when most charts and other people showing their apps show full sunshine mid 30's and high 30's over SE.  I still expecting full sunshine from tomorrow onward and rising temperatures to low 30's.  That single 37C I see is over west of Birmingham area.

I certainly wouldn’t have thought in July 2022 that we’d see 40C again in less than 4 years time but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised. The charts just seem to keep getting hotter. 

31c, 31c, 34c, 37c, 37c, 34c, 29c

And we know that tends to underestimate as well.

Could need a historic heat watch thread. Can’t believe this could be the third in 7 years.

Mon: 32C

Tues: 39C

Wed: 37C

Thu: 36C

Fri: 32C

Be amazing if we can smash 40c+ again. Really really hope we do it 

I’ve been on this forum since the start and recall convos where it was stated there was no chance we’d break 40c in the UK