So no issue with a poor start to June (any more than there was in 1975 1989 1995 2013 etc etc

Looks like the models were overcooking the heat today a tad, 34.4 looks to be the hottest I think?

Edit: I had missed the 34.8 at Kew. 

June need to prove to beat today highest record 34.8. I hoping to see new record for June be updated since 1976 which was non global warming that time.  38C will do nicely so hope some point the models to start showing another heat.

What a joke of weather the UK and Ireland is? I could ship you as many lorry loads of dust as you want for your garden and no doubt you could ship me a spare 100mm of rain I need to get my garden back to where it should be at the end of May! By the way I'm way nearer to mainland Europe than you - about 69 miles away to be precise.

GFS Op 0z - keeps HP over Britain for a day longer than FAX, but W-lies are there by Sun 31st. Then the pressure pattern for Britain is of typical mobile Atlantic weather, more unsettled in the N, more settled in the S, alternating between HP spreading N from France ( Mon 1st,  Fri 5th) and troughs of LP spreading S from Iceland (Wed 3rd, Sun 7th) i.e. . On Thu 11th however a depression 995mb has developed off SW Ireland and appears poised to run SE-wards.

ECM - like GFS with some differences in timing, typically a day later

AIFS - London, maxima after tomorrow dropping away to 20C Wed 3rd, and after a warm weekend 6th/7th back to 20C. Rain Tue 2nd and Tue 9th but not a lot. Edinburgh, maxima mostly in high teens to Tue 9th, a little warmer at the end of this week but a cool couple of days at the end of next. Rain in small amounts on Sat 30th and every day in the following week.

GEFS - steady decrease in mean temp well supported by ens members from 10C above norm now to norm  on Wed 3rd and continuing there or a little below until Thu 11th. Dry for a few days in the north, otherwise one ens member or another predicting a little rain somewhere at sometime in this period, no clear  pattern but highest chances around Thu 4th.

I’ve seen this script before in the south a lot over the last 6 years. Any cooler spell gets diluted down to just about average before the next heat wave is on the horizon. Even on 12z from the 07June there is an increasing trend to go hot again.

Excellent. Until recently the second half of June was looking high pressure dominated. Hopefully that continues and well beyond 

GFS Op 0z - the westerlies continue for some time with disturbances* in the flow, as usual in this setup least settled in the north, fine weather in the south. Eventually HP noses in from the SW Thu 11th 

(* a cool but weak trough Tue 2nd, LP 990mb N Scotland Thu 4th, 980mb W Isles Sat 6th, 1010mb SW Ireland Mon 8th )

ECM - keeps HP over England until Sat 30th before adopting the GFS pattern of westerlies (to Fri 5th)

AIFS - London, maxima 25C+ to Sat 30th, dropping to 13-15C Mon 1st - Mon 8th with frequent rain in this period before temps rise again. Edinburgh, a little cooler at first but otherwise temps and rain similar to London though rain rather heavier.

GEFS - mean temp dropping to norm Wed 3rd  (Mon 1st in Scotland) and staying there with quite good ens support to Fri 12th; a few warm/hot outliers around Sun 7th. Chances of rain for a week from Mon 1st, not much in the south, more in the north esp NW, and most likely early in the week

Fresher too.

Hopefully not for here. We certainly don’t “need” rain here. I’m always sceptical of rainfall projections in advance. They often diminish for here this time of year

Just the June monsoon, I think, normally lasts about 2 weeks??

It’s never really stuck in my mind as a thing. It’s certainly not an every year thing. I can’t think of any real trend one way or the other in June here

GFS - ten days of westerlies from Mon 1st with occasional embedded troughs (the most significant on Thu 4th affecting the whole country, the others mostly affecting the north) before HP re-established just west of Ireland 1030mb Sat 13th.

ECM - (to Sat 6th) agrees with GFS. The trough on Sat 6th also looks as if it will develop significantly.

AIFS - London, maxima dropping in stages from 28C now to 18C Mon 1st and staying there or even a little cooler to Tue 9th before slowly rising again, Rain Tue 2nd to Sun 6th, traces a day before and after. Edinburgh, similar pattern for maxima, but from 20C down to 15C, Some rain every day from Sun 31st to Mon 8th.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support down from present warmth to near norm from Mon 1st for ten days to Thu 11th when temps begin to rise again. There are chances of rain throughout this ten-day period, mainly dry before and after, rain most likely Tue/Wed 2nd/3rd. slowly fading out (more persistent in NW)

That hotter cluster has now vanished although there looks to be a reasonable trend towards a climb to warmer conditions by the second week of June.

The extended ECM shows a hefty plume rising into central Europe in the latter stages, but too far east to affect the UK.

Encouraging, indeed. Hopefully the heat ramps up as well

GFS Op 0z - general westerly theme continues with deeper depressions rolling past on Thu 4th (985mb Hebrides) and Thu 11th (990mb Ireland), both filling as they move NE-wards.

ECM (to T +120) - differs from GFS after Tue 2nd; an extra depression Wed 3rd (990mb Bristol Channel) and then a general drop in pressure over Britain/N Sea with light northerlies on Sat 6th.

AIFS - London, still warm for the weekend (25C-ish) then maxima 13-15C through to Tue 9th before rising quickly. Rain Tue 2nd and Sun 7th (and a little between), also Fri 12th. Edinburgh, 20C tomorrow (Sat), then maxima about 15C to Wed 10th. Small amounts of rain on most days after the weekend, lasting two weeks.

GEFS - mean temp (well supported by ens members) down to norm Mon 1st, then at norm to Thu 11th before rising a little. Rain  fairly certain Tue/Wed 2nd/3rd, in England becoming less likely over the following week and very little after that; in Scotland diminishing but nevertheless persistent

I will be happy if I can get just 10-15mm in that "wetter start to June. 2-3mm each day will make absolutely no difference but I expect that's how it will end up. I saw a video of torrential rain in Wellingborough with the street flooding. Used to get downpours here at some point every year. Very rare these days.

And fairly cool compared to what it has been.

GFS 6Z nudges 30C in London once again by 11 June.

GFS Op 0z - as for FAX; then another LP dips further south, from SW Ireland 990mb Fri 5th to 985mb Orkney on the 6th. Westerlies then resume but eventually pressure rises from the SW with a cell 1030mb N Ireland Fri 13th (but this with LP near Scandinavia means N-lies for the E coast). This HP broadens out to cover Britain, but being centred to the north, there are easterlies for England.

ECM - much like GFS in promoting westerlies for the coming week; the LP on 5th/6th however appears as a larger area of lower pressure to the north of Scotland; and then plays with the idea of thundery lows near S England Mon 8th while pressure rises elsewhere.

AIFS - London, after today's warmth, maxima mostly 16-18C to Sat 13th, slightly warmer towards the end. Small amounts of rain on many days after Tue 2nd. Edinburgh, similar to London but maxima 15-16C and rain starting tomorrow (Sun)

GEFS - mean temps back to norm from Mon 1st for a fortnight  with quite good ens agreement. Rain  in the south from Mon 1st quite heavy at first but tailing off after Fri 5th; in the north from today to Sun 7th. and also persisting in the NW

An unsettled week in prospect; summer may return by mid-June