Problem is for these here parts is that the 'European monsoon' has been in full swing since last October! 

Not fussed about heat as you know, but I really need some proper dry weather for a couple of weeks for sorting out the garden. 

Absolutely, all models are pointing to an unseasonably cool and wet start to meteorological summer, and the longevity of the cool spell is at least 2 weeks, but could very well be much of June, as once these patterns set in, they are hard to shift, especially in summer with a reduction in strength of the jet stream. 

I agree that it is looking unsettled but not sure about unseasonably cool. Looks more like temperatures returning to the long term average or a little below. But it will be interesting to see if this is a 2 week blip or a pattern setter for the summer. 

Yep, I stand corrected. 16-18c and GFS does tend to undercook temperatures, so maybe 19 or 20c but plenty of rain around. 

Can't say that's necessarily a bad thing, some hot dry spells interpersed with more changeable would be a more typical English summer.

That said, if we are getting 34c in May, God knows what may be possible in July and August. Could be pushing records again.

I personally think we will be in for a consistent warm summer  even after a small potential dip in temperatures during the first week of June  

So no issue with a poor start to June (any more than there was in 1975 1989 1995 2013 etc etc

Looks like the models were overcooking the heat today a tad, 34.4 looks to be the hottest I think?

Edit: I had missed the 34.8 at Kew. 

June need to prove to beat today highest record 34.8. I hoping to see new record for June be updated since 1976 which was non global warming that time.  38C will do nicely so hope some point the models to start showing another heat.

What a joke of weather the UK and Ireland is? I could ship you as many lorry loads of dust as you want for your garden and no doubt you could ship me a spare 100mm of rain I need to get my garden back to where it should be at the end of May! By the way I'm way nearer to mainland Europe than you - about 69 miles away to be precise.

GFS Op 0z - keeps HP over Britain for a day longer than FAX, but W-lies are there by Sun 31st. Then the pressure pattern for Britain is of typical mobile Atlantic weather, more unsettled in the N, more settled in the S, alternating between HP spreading N from France ( Mon 1st,  Fri 5th) and troughs of LP spreading S from Iceland (Wed 3rd, Sun 7th) i.e. . On Thu 11th however a depression 995mb has developed off SW Ireland and appears poised to run SE-wards.

ECM - like GFS with some differences in timing, typically a day later

AIFS - London, maxima after tomorrow dropping away to 20C Wed 3rd, and after a warm weekend 6th/7th back to 20C. Rain Tue 2nd and Tue 9th but not a lot. Edinburgh, maxima mostly in high teens to Tue 9th, a little warmer at the end of this week but a cool couple of days at the end of next. Rain in small amounts on Sat 30th and every day in the following week.

GEFS - steady decrease in mean temp well supported by ens members from 10C above norm now to norm  on Wed 3rd and continuing there or a little below until Thu 11th. Dry for a few days in the north, otherwise one ens member or another predicting a little rain somewhere at sometime in this period, no clear  pattern but highest chances around Thu 4th.

I’ve seen this script before in the south a lot over the last 6 years. Any cooler spell gets diluted down to just about average before the next heat wave is on the horizon. Even on 12z from the 07June there is an increasing trend to go hot again.

Excellent. Until recently the second half of June was looking high pressure dominated. Hopefully that continues and well beyond 

GFS Op 0z - the westerlies continue for some time with disturbances* in the flow, as usual in this setup least settled in the north, fine weather in the south. Eventually HP noses in from the SW Thu 11th 

(* a cool but weak trough Tue 2nd, LP 990mb N Scotland Thu 4th, 980mb W Isles Sat 6th, 1010mb SW Ireland Mon 8th )

ECM - keeps HP over England until Sat 30th before adopting the GFS pattern of westerlies (to Fri 5th)

AIFS - London, maxima 25C+ to Sat 30th, dropping to 13-15C Mon 1st - Mon 8th with frequent rain in this period before temps rise again. Edinburgh, a little cooler at first but otherwise temps and rain similar to London though rain rather heavier.

GEFS - mean temp dropping to norm Wed 3rd  (Mon 1st in Scotland) and staying there with quite good ens support to Fri 12th; a few warm/hot outliers around Sun 7th. Chances of rain for a week from Mon 1st, not much in the south, more in the north esp NW, and most likely early in the week

Fresher too.

Hopefully not for here. We certainly don’t “need” rain here. I’m always sceptical of rainfall projections in advance. They often diminish for here this time of year

Just the June monsoon, I think, normally lasts about 2 weeks??

It’s never really stuck in my mind as a thing. It’s certainly not an every year thing. I can’t think of any real trend one way or the other in June here

GFS - ten days of westerlies from Mon 1st with occasional embedded troughs (the most significant on Thu 4th affecting the whole country, the others mostly affecting the north) before HP re-established just west of Ireland 1030mb Sat 13th.

ECM - (to Sat 6th) agrees with GFS. The trough on Sat 6th also looks as if it will develop significantly.

AIFS - London, maxima dropping in stages from 28C now to 18C Mon 1st and staying there or even a little cooler to Tue 9th before slowly rising again, Rain Tue 2nd to Sun 6th, traces a day before and after. Edinburgh, similar pattern for maxima, but from 20C down to 15C, Some rain every day from Sun 31st to Mon 8th.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support down from present warmth to near norm from Mon 1st for ten days to Thu 11th when temps begin to rise again. There are chances of rain throughout this ten-day period, mainly dry before and after, rain most likely Tue/Wed 2nd/3rd. slowly fading out (more persistent in NW)

That hotter cluster has now vanished although there looks to be a reasonable trend towards a climb to warmer conditions by the second week of June.

The extended ECM shows a hefty plume rising into central Europe in the latter stages, but too far east to affect the UK.

Encouraging, indeed. Hopefully the heat ramps up as well