GFS Op 0z - general westerly theme continues with deeper depressions rolling past on Thu 4th (985mb Hebrides) and Thu 11th (990mb Ireland), both filling as they move NE-wards.

ECM (to T +120) - differs from GFS after Tue 2nd; an extra depression Wed 3rd (990mb Bristol Channel) and then a general drop in pressure over Britain/N Sea with light northerlies on Sat 6th.

AIFS - London, still warm for the weekend (25C-ish) then maxima 13-15C through to Tue 9th before rising quickly. Rain Tue 2nd and Sun 7th (and a little between), also Fri 12th. Edinburgh, 20C tomorrow (Sat), then maxima about 15C to Wed 10th. Small amounts of rain on most days after the weekend, lasting two weeks.

GEFS - mean temp (well supported by ens members) down to norm Mon 1st, then at norm to Thu 11th before rising a little. Rain  fairly certain Tue/Wed 2nd/3rd, in England becoming less likely over the following week and very little after that; in Scotland diminishing but nevertheless persistent

I will be happy if I can get just 10-15mm in that "wetter start to June. 2-3mm each day will make absolutely no difference but I expect that's how it will end up. I saw a video of torrential rain in Wellingborough with the street flooding. Used to get downpours here at some point every year. Very rare these days.

And fairly cool compared to what it has been.

GFS 6Z nudges 30C in London once again by 11 June.

GFS Op 0z - as for FAX; then another LP dips further south, from SW Ireland 990mb Fri 5th to 985mb Orkney on the 6th. Westerlies then resume but eventually pressure rises from the SW with a cell 1030mb N Ireland Fri 13th (but this with LP near Scandinavia means N-lies for the E coast). This HP broadens out to cover Britain, but being centred to the north, there are easterlies for England.

ECM - much like GFS in promoting westerlies for the coming week; the LP on 5th/6th however appears as a larger area of lower pressure to the north of Scotland; and then plays with the idea of thundery lows near S England Mon 8th while pressure rises elsewhere.

AIFS - London, after today's warmth, maxima mostly 16-18C to Sat 13th, slightly warmer towards the end. Small amounts of rain on many days after Tue 2nd. Edinburgh, similar to London but maxima 15-16C and rain starting tomorrow (Sun)

GEFS - mean temps back to norm from Mon 1st for a fortnight  with quite good ens agreement. Rain  in the south from Mon 1st quite heavy at first but tailing off after Fri 5th; in the north from today to Sun 7th. and also persisting in the NW

An unsettled week in prospect; summer may return by mid-June

GFS Op 0z - continues the FAX pattern to Thu 11th when the last of the sequence drifts S-wards across Britain filling 1005mb as pressure rises from the SW, forming a ridge between Scotland and Iceland, toppling southwards to cover Britain Tue 16th.

ECM - As GFS at first but on Wed 10th (final chart at time of posting) pressure rises over Scandinavia and that final LP stalls near Greenland with S/SE-lies established for Britain. [now extended as T+360 available} That LP moves to Iceland with Hp settling over England for a few days; by Sun 14th the westerlies are back for all

AIFS - something of a downgrade - London maxima mostly 16-18C but warmer spells to 20C now, and for a few days  around Sun 7th and Sun 14th. Rain on most days, heaviest Tue 2nd. Edinburgh, maxima 15-18C through to the 14th, rain on most days, perhaps a day or two drier at the end.

GEFS - mean temp starts near norm, a dip Sat 6th (compare AIFS) then a degree or two above norm to Sun 14th though most ens members are lower, the mean is dragged up by a few hot outliers amongst ens members, this effect less marked in Scotland.. Rain at intervals this week, small chances of light rain next week in the S, more persistent in N and indeed continuing heavy in the far NW.

June monsoon?

Is that 'what June monsoon' or 'June monsoon possible'?

It's cooling down which is absolutely wonderful. As to rain (desperately needed) I'm inclined towards 'nothing like enough'.

And that signal for about the same time is increasing in the GFS ENS too.

Don't know what models they use for the apps but nearly a week ago they attempted to put 14C and 1C at night in early June now high teens and normal night temps  12z ensembles looking good as I will be off work from Friday 5th June to 18th hope a right timing for settled warm to hot spell hopefully.

GFS Op 0z - the last of the LPs in FAX gets to Scotland 990mb Sat 6th. Eventually pressure rises from the SW and briefly covers Britain 1030mb Wed 10th, but moves on to Scandinavia. From Fri 12th the principal feature is shallow LP pushing N-wards from France. 

ECM - the LP shown on GFS Sat 6th fizzles out and simple westerlies continue with pressure quite high near the Channel.. However, like GFS, pressure drops later next week and there is a broad trough for all of Britain on Thu 11th. But this model keeps pressure high, not low, over France and brings it back to Britain by Tue 15th.

AIFS - London, maxima 16-18C to Thu 11th with rain on many occasions in that time, heaviest Tue 2nd; then warmer and dry. Edinburgh, , also cool (14-16C) to Thu 11th, then although warmer, rain continues.

GEFS - mean temps declining to a little below norm Thu/Fri 4th/5th, then near norm (or in the south, a few degrees above) with quite good ens agreement. Heavy rain at intervals this week, rain appearing ins some runs after that, always likely to be heavier and more persistent in the north esp NW

Doesn't look too bad into the second week of June.

Plenty of HP on the ECM ensembles aswell.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=23&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op 0z - the westerlies with occasional troughs continue to Thu 18th (end of run). From next week, pressure is a little higher near the south (1015-1020mb) so spells of fine weather there, likely wetter in the north (1000-1005mb)

ECM - goes for a higher pressure solution; it's no more than a weak trough this Saturday, and then by Thu 11th a cell of HP 1030mb is over the Bristol Channel with the westerlies displaced to the Faeroes.

AIFS - London, maxima 15-17C (a little warmer Sat 13th); rain at times this week drying up after Tue 9th. Edinburgh, maxima 14-15C, warmer today and approaching Tue 16th; light rain at times for next 10 days, but heavy on Sat 13th.

GEFS - cool around Sat 6th, then a little above norm w/b Tue 9th, dropping back but with some hot outliers to be seen. In England, rain on various days to Sun 7th, then mostly dry but some showers, possibility of more rain Wed 17th. In Scotland, dribbles of rain all the way through to the 17th.

You'll get your modern heat 👍 - it seems like mid summer now but really it's a month from there. The longer modern heat is absent (and it does look like being absent for a while longer) the better for everything and everyone bar modern heat lovers.