We desperately need some prolonged respite so the soil can recover. Lawns still very boggy here, unusable sports pitches and semi permanent lakes across many low lying areas that don’t seems to be draining at all, despite 5 dry days on the trot. 

Goes to show just how bad the groundwater flooding has been. 

GFS Op 0z - agrees with FAX re sluggish circulation over the next few days, but then moves the LP in on a more N-ly track, 975mb N Ireland/ N Scotland Wed 12th. Then a prolonged period to Sun 22nd of W/SW-lies between  the regulation LP Greenland and HP Azores, with a few hiccups in the flow (LP 965mb Shetland Sat 14th with gales, shallow troughs extending further S Mon 16th and Thu 19th). Final chart shows deeper LP 950mb approaching W Scotland with cold NW-lies

ECM - has the LP Wed 12th, further N again, just grazing N Scotland, but then agrees on the W-lies but only for a few days to Mon 16th. This model then releases the LP from Greenland to affect Britain directly, 955mb Tue 17th Fair Isle and 960mb Fri 20th Rockall with cold and strong NW-lies for all of Britain. So much more active weather than from GFS in a week's time.

AIFS - London, maxima ca 10C with a few spits of rain to Tue 17th, then colder and significant rain Fri 20th. Edinburgh, maxima around 9C to Fri 13th , sunny at first , rain later, then colder but mainly dry (AIFS charts this morning only providing an averaged smoothed temp after Sun 15th)

GEFS - In the S, mean and ens temp mild to Mon 10th (+4C relative to norm) but then close to norm to Fri 13th. Mean continues near norm but ens members spread out, op & control with a warm pulse on 15th. Mostly dry at first, then rain then most likely around Fri 13th and  Thu 20th. In the N, less mild at first, and then while mean is not far from norm it switches from plus to minus as the variability of ens members  dictates. Mainly dry at first, persistent rain from Wed 11th though only small amounts in east.

GFS Op 0z - the W-lies remain active through to Sun 22nd, with a couple of episodes when they bring in  deeper embedded troughs covering Britain (Sat 14th, Wed 18th), the said troughs closing up as the southern end of them form LPs moving down to S France.

ECM  - similar though the 'embedded troughs' are less cases of interruptions to a continuing flow and more cases of quite deep LPs off NW Scotland in their own right.

AIFS - London, rather variable maxima but mostly 8-10C, spells of rain from Wed 11th interspersed with brief dry periods including cold nights. Edinburgh, maxima 10C at first and sunny, then also breaking on Wed 11th with some rain on most days and maxima 5-7C

GEFS - mean and  ens agree on temps a coupe of degrees above norm, again to the 11th, after which less ens agreement and mean temp a little below norm (definitely below norm in SW) (also op & control positively warm around Fri 20th in SE). Rain from 11th onwards, heavy for Sat 14th, and persisting in the west while slowly drying up in the east.

General agreement on Wed 11th as a changeover day

GFS Op 0z - agrees with the return of the W-lies but they don't last long; a trough drops south from Iceland Sat 14th and splits off an LP to E Spain 990mb. The synoptics repeat this on Tue 17th before HP forms a ridge to Britain from the SW, finally developing a cell 1035mb E Anglia Tue 24th. This week of HP wasn't in the charts yesterday, and it's not in ECM now.

ECM - similar to GFS though timing its troughs a day later. The rise in HP which follows after Tue 17th is restricted to S England, Scotland remaining under cool and brisk W-lies

AIFS - London, maxima 10-12C but a dip Sat 14th,  Edinburgh, maxima 5-8C though milder at first. In both cases, small amounts of rain scattered throughout, only a little sunshine, no frost until 22nd and winds in the W/SW.

GEFS - mean temp descending to norm, up and (mostly) down for a few days 11th-16th, then settling on norm but with a lot of spread from ens members from Mon 16th this may not be reliable. Rain Wed 11th (for S & W) and Fri/Sat 13th/14th (generally), not much thereafter 

Amen to that

GFS Op 0z - as FAX then W-lies resume and are refreshed at intervals by LPs on the usual track across the N Atlantic. Then on Thu 19th LP breaks the pattern and moves SE-wards to NE England 970mb and initiates a broad trough from S Iceland to Italy, covering Britain. It fills slowly as it moves SE but is still present 995mb Wed 25th Dover.

ECM - breaks with the above from Sun 15th; first one of the LPs on the 'usual track' dips close to N Scotland 960mb but is followed by a rise of pressure from the W and on Thu 19th there is an HP cell 1030mb E Scotland while the next Atlantic LP moves SE to Portugal. The HP ridges across Scotland for a while but is suppressed as the LP moves up from Portugal 1000mb Wales Tue 24th.

A BIG split between the two big models in 10 days' time - interesting to watch.

AIFS - London, maxima 10-12 C to Mon 23rd, occasional rain with milder nights alternating with occasional sun with rather cold nights. Edinburgh, maxima 8-10 C but with a wetter and cooler period Fri 13th - Tue 17th. More rain and cooler also for Sat 21st. Winds mostly W or SW but N-ly at the end for London.

GEFS - mean temps and ens up and (more often) down from norm until Wed 18th (contrasts quite sharp from day to day) , then mean near norm with ens spread increasing (op v. cold and control v. mild), rain frequent Wed 11th - Wed 18th  in most runs (front-loaded in Scotland), then drier.

Indication  that the weather will be rather variable for the first week, but then uncertain in the second

GFS Op 0z - The general theme of W-lies  driven by LP south of Greenland-Iceland continues, often strong and varying between mild SW-ly and rather cold NW-ly. Brief ridges of HP passing through Tue 17th and Wed 25th.

ECM - sticks with its  yesterday's forecast of higher pressure for Britain while the axis of LP moves to the N of Iceland. The W-lies last to Thu 19th but then a strong ridge of HP moves in from the SW, and stays for a couple of days before a flabby LP moves up from the south to affect England Mon 23rd while HP 1025mb is situate between Scotland and Iceland

AIFS - London, maxima around 10C, cooler around Sat 14th, milder Fri 20th; rain most often in week 1 esp Fri 13th. Edinburgh maxima 10C early and later on, but more like 7C Fri 13th to Thu 19th; rain also a peak on Fri 13th but quite often  throughout. 

GEFS - temps both mean and ens in step, up and (mostly) down until Tue 17th, Mean temp then stays near norm but range of ens members expands dramatically. Brief periods of heavy rain 11th (not much evident in the N) and 13th, smaller amounts less certainly after that but always heavy and persistent in the far NW. Snow rows indicate snow for the highlands, also maybe N Pennines esp in first week

Tue 17th appears to be a pivot day as models diverge from then

Here's the 6z Icon for a week today:

GFS 6z:

GFS - As above, and continuing (980mb Wed 18th, which stalls briefly  for a calmer day or two, resuming 960mb Sat 21st and Thu 26th).

A generally stormy period esp for the north where it may be occasionally cold enough for snow on hills.

ECM - sticks with its previous predictions of HP,  moving in after Wed 18th, a broad ridge across Britain (exc extreme north) but after Sun 22nd moving NW to form a centre mid-north Atlantic and later than week some cold-looking N/NE-lies moving down the N Sea to affect SE Britain.

Stormy for a week, then much more settled - a battle of the big two models

AIFS to Wed 25th - London, maxima around 10C (cooler at first, milder later), rain Fri 13th, occasional spits on other dates. Edinburgh, maxima mostly around 6C but more like 10C now and around Thu 19th, rain on 13th but also rather more at other times.

GEFS - mostly a couple of degrees below norm to Wed 18th, then mean temp stays near norm but ens members diverge considerably. Rain on the 13th, very little after that in the SE, but persisting in NW England and Scotland, heavy at times in the far NW. Chances of snow in the Highlands significant in the next couple of days, much less after that and minimal elsewhere

GFS Op 0z - also has the LPs above but calms down by Wed 18th as the LPs are then further north and a broad W-E ridge of HP spreads across Britain. This just about hangs on for a week before the HP centre moves to Norway Wed 25th and Britain is sandwiched between that and an Atlantic LP with S-lies for a while before the LP, mostly filled, gets to SW Britain 995mb Sat 28th. [GFS has come round to ECM's prediction from yesterday]

ECM - like GFS for 10 days but (1) the 'broad ridge' of HP is weakened by a shallow trough separating the HP centres on Atlantic and Norway Mon 23rd (2) the HP then returns in full Fri 27th with the nearest LP over Spain 1005mb and E-lies for England

AIFS - London, maxima 10C, briefly milder Thu 19th, rain Fri 13th and Mon 23rd else dry, Edinburgh, but based on 8C and (very) small amounts of rain at other times.

GEFS - cool to Tue 17th, mild (7c above norm in S, only 3C above in N))  Thu 19th, slowly declining to norm with not too much spread of ens members, rain now and perhaps a little in 10 days' time but more in C & W Scotland around Tue 17th

Chart review will be late tomorrow - medical appointment

GFS Op - as FAX; then the last LP departs N-wards, leaving a secondary off Portugal, while Britain is under a broad W-E ridge of HP Wed 18th. The HP converts into a centre 1050mb Norway Wed 25th drifting west to N Ireland Sun 29th. During this period the LP off Portugal moves into France as an unfocused area of LP and flirts with S England which experiences E-lies.

ECM - a similar pattern to GFS though the LP near Portugal is more active and has more influence on England Wed 25th; and then the HP drifts further west with weak N-lies for N Sea coasts Sat 28th (and very cold in C Europe at this point)

ECM also has a curious mini-dartboard LP plonked over the Azores Sat 28th 995mb.

AIFS - London; maxima mostly 10C but 15C and sunny for a few days from Wed 18th (big diurnal swings) then cold with rain Tue/Wed 24th/25th (that LP from Portugal?). Also some rain tonight. Edinburgh, maxima 7-8C with milder and cooler periods as for London; some rain Tue 24th, small amounts at other times.

GEFS - cool (4 or 5 C below norm ) to Tue 17th then mild (5C above norm) for a few days before mean temp back to norm or a little below with not more than the usual spread of ens members (the outliers are the Op +8C and Control -6C!), dry in the east to Tue 24th and rain not in every run even then., but also small amounts of rain in the west at first 

Typical isn't it for this cold block to happen in Spring? Do you think this was due to the recent SSW 2 weeks ago?

Super synoptics, aren't they? But nowhere near cold enough for snow down here (March snow being a once in 20 year event these days), and yet again the best stuff is at 10 days' range. The ghost of the 10-day winter lives on!

If nothing else though it'll be nice for things to dry out a bit, and of course there should be plentiful sunshine which I think most will appreciate.

GFS Op 0z - By Fri 20th the HP is centred  1030mb E Scotland (not an extended broad ridge as shown yesterday), but mobile; first to Iceland Wed 25th with N/NE-lies for N Sea coasts, and then down to S England Sun 29th as the Atlantic starts to push in again from the W..

ECM - when the HP moves from Scotland after Fri 20th, it goes to Norway instead allowing LP to move up from the south 1005mb Holland Tue 24th. This model almost converges with GFS as HP appears W of Ireland Thu 26th with NE-lies for S Britain but then diverges again as that HP retreats W-wards and Britain gets full-on N-lies Sun 29th.

AIFS - London, maxima 10C apart from the end of next week when 15C for a few days, mostly dry (rain 27th), likely some frosty nights after Wed 18th. Edinburgh, maxima rather variable, mostly 10C , a little warmer and sunny around Sat 21st, but periods of rain at other times

GEFS -  mild 17th - 21st (very much so in S) else mean temp a little below norm increased spread of ens members  after Sun 22nd, cold outliers beginning to appear then esp in N, also some chance of rain from that date (also a little rain in N at first).

GFS Op 0z - by Fri 20th the HP has gathered itself into a centre 1025mb Scotland. This centre moves off to the Baltic 1030mb Sun 22nd with the LP from Morocco moving north and drifts N to W Scotland, filling by Wed 25th with SE-lies. HP then tries to move in from the SW over the weekend of Sun 29th. By Wed 31st the W-lies are starting up again.

ECM - differs from GFS after Wed 25th with the subsequent HP developing in the north (1020mb Iceland Thu 26th) and pressure dropping in the southern N Sea 995mb Sat 28th introducing cold NE-lies for England, though filling slowly.

WX (quoted in Daily Mirror) - Blizzard from the north with snow all the way south to the Channel. The flimsiest of straws for cold lovers; it's only the 10th? 15th? time this season they've forecasted blizzards. Perhaps an extreme version of ECM (WX is based on ECM with tweaks)

AIFS - London, maxima around 10C except for a few days from Wed 18th when 15C+. A couple of cold nights for the w/e Sat 21st before cloud and rain sets in for the following week. Edinburgh, maxima about 10C now with a little rain, drier and milder (13C) from Wed 18th to the weekend, then some rain with maxima varying  from 5 to 10C.

GEFS - a  bump of mild weather Tue 17th to Sat 21st (up to 10C above norm in the S, much less in N), then mean near norm to end of month (control is a very mild outlier from some fairly well grouped ens members). Mainly dry to Mon 23rd, then slight chances of rain generally - though the BBC was showing rain in the next few days in the NW esp heavy in the far NW.

The 10 days away mirage. Hope its true to form and stays at 10 days, probably not, just our luck it will appear in the reliable.

...and you can imagine how shocking a NE wind is here in Spring/early summer.....cold/gloomy/haar 🤢

"We" doesn't include me - a NE'ly is welcome at any time of year as far as I'm concerned. 👌

It's a very pleasant outlook down here at least if it's settled weather you're after. The NE'lies set in on Thursday on the MetO raw and it's a pleasantly sunny outlook, temperatures around average. 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/ne.jpg 

You’re lucky though that as a result of being in the south of Edinburgh and therefore that bit further inland, it can still get quite warm in that regime where you are if the Sun manages to break through for any length of time.

Even if that was to happen, it will often still feel rather cool where I am here in the north of Edinburgh as a result of me being much more exposed to those winds here, even if the Sun does come out.

 fact that the SSTs are at their coldest at this time of year doesn’t exactly help in that regard either.

Interesting that it should be so late in the season up there - they've been rising for weeks down here.

Winter here was one week in January, and at the end of that SSTs fell to 4C:

https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperature-de-la-mer.php?jour=12&mois=1&annee=2026&mode=0®ion=uk# 

They're now 4C higher.

https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperature-de-la-mer.php?jour=12&mois=1&annee=2026&mode=0®ion=uk# 

GFS Op 0z - Having formed a link between Baltic and Azores, the HP splits again and Britain is in a col of LP by by Sun 22nd. W-lies then return for the following week though pressure remains high close to the SW. On Sun 29th the LP near Iceland develops a trough S-wards and covers Britain 990mb Wed 1st with some rather cold air in its circulation.

ECM - keeps the HP for longer over Britain though the S coast is threatened by LP over France. Then this model agrees with GFS in that it brings W-lies back by Wed 25th. No sign of a cold LP from the north to end the month, rather a steady pressure rise over the Channel 1035mb and W-lies still present though weaker.

AIFS - London, peak maxima Wed 18th at 16C declining slowly to the weekend, fine and dry but with big diurnal swings. Then mixed to the end of the month, maxima mostly 10C and a little rain at times. Edinburgh, also mild-ish(12C) and mostly dry to the weekend, cooler (7C) with rain to Fri 27th, then fine and dry with maxima recovering to 10C.

GEFS -becoming very mild (7C above norm in S, less in N) to Sat 21st then mean temp near norm into April, ens spread wide around Wed 25th but converging again, Mostly dry, perhaps a little rain from 25th in some runs. In the N, control run is a persistent very mild outlier.

A few days on and the easterly is now a shorter-lived waft, the cold pool isn't as sharply defined or as deep, and the upper cold pool misses us to the south anyway. 

It's good to see, I guess, that the models are just as bad at handling easterlies in spring as they are in winter!