Up until around T+192 its not that dissimilar to the GFS, with deep warmth and heights building in the Svalbard area allowing cold/low heights from siberia to be pushed towards Europe. In the end low heights from the Atlantic block the UK from getting that feed. But it is not that far away from happening.

Again expect some crazy charts over the next few days as this is worked out. I think regardless we will see a chilly easterly flow next weekend, with the possibility that it evolves into something more interesting. That last part is obviously uncertain. 

🤣👍

Seen far worse ens than those! Anyone know what time the ECM 12 ens appear?

Edit: Just realised they're available here on TWO 

The ECM offering also looks to have some excellent members. Not a bad days model watching it has to be said 👍

The ens are excellent if its a frigid easterly your looking for.

Agreed! 

Unfortunately I cannot seem to post them here, but there looks to be some real belters amongst them! 

Interesting to see more colder members with one goes for -14C and some at -10C. it seem the date line for the easterly will be around 20/21 Jan which is near reliable. If this set up continue to upgrade Darren can make the graph.  Really want to see the deep cold and snow as today I picked up the last bit of snow which my wife built a snowman to feel and say goodbye hoping to see you again very soon.  

🤣🤣🤣

I hope you gave the snow patch the send off it deserved ❤️

Right click, open in new window, zoom in.

I keep being reminded of Jan 87 when viewing the charts not because of the bitter cold but because it came out of nowhere. There was no ssw ( that came after the freeze). The earlier warming at the end of November was I think to far away perhaps and also not strong enough and the teleconnections do not support this despite what some of the tech guys try to spin. What ever the reason we are in a good place going forward and if the trend continues in our favour then by the end of the weekend we could be looking at a very different outlook to the one  we were looking at three of four days ago.

Love a bit of context. Thanks Brian 

Nearly choked on my Horlicks 😂

A classic!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/682/animliw6.gif 

That what Azores Low much needed there as it guide strong bitter cold flow all the way to the west. It how train of lows further south every winter as it should be at times to give much needed rain in Med and North Africa and snow in Alps, all over Europe to UK.  Why some posters in NW complaining about it? It the High are a winter killer. 

Of course you are drawn in!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=1&run=0&time=348&lid=P18&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

GFS Op - continuing from above, the area of LP from Fri 16th moves S-wards leaving a weak trough behind while pressure rises over the whole of E Europe, 1035 mb from Greece to Lapland by Wed 21st, forming a block both to Atlantic LPs and cold Beasts from the East. By Sat 24th this area of HP has drifted N-wards, centred E Baltic, 1040mb with a tangled picture of E/SE-lies for W Europe. Britain seems just out of reach for a true E-ly with a SE-ly or even S-ly influence by Thu 29th. 

ECM - general agreement with above but slightly more Atlantic than continental influence for Britain after Wed 21st which persists and indeed increases to Wed 28th, the Scandi HP being gradually pushed E-wards and colder E-lies getting no nearer to Britain than Sweden.

AIFS - London, a cool day tomorrow but otherwise maxima to start with ca 10C, steadily decreasing to 1C Fri 23rd before rising again. Two batches of rain this week and then dry to 26th; winds S-ly at first then N-ly going round E-ly for w/b Sun18th. Edinburgh, similar temp profile (plus another colder spell Sat 17th), rain mostly after 26th, winds staying E-ly through to Wed 28th.

GEFS - mean temp near norm with quite good ens agreement to Mon 19th, then consistently 3C below norm influence by a number of much colder ens members. Rain in the S this week, not really affecting the N; more generally but not in every run from Fri 23rd. Snow row figures up a notch but still only around 50% even in N & E.

The charts generally aren't keen on a Beast from the East reaching Britain, holding it over the Baltic; but some ens members (an increasing number) keep hopes alive for a second period of snowy weather in the last week of January.