As stated by some during yesterday, whilst that superblock is still in play we will always  have a chance. Even a watered down Feb '91 would do for me! 

Not enough across the board for me yet Q. The ‘big three’ are impressively similar at +144 but GEM is still too progressive thereafter and MOGREPS, the suite I have been more inclined to consider recently, isn’t twitching yet. On the other hand DeBilts, the ‘early warning system’, has nudged down on the 00Z set.

If the signal is still there and consolidating by Weds/Thurs this week then it might be worth an eye.

I can't decide if it's pleasing the easterly signal keeps waxing and waning or irritating - so far it's not even got to the point of a decent FI signal IMO, although there's some tentative signs of optimism in the GEFS with the signal being present over successive suites and a little cross model support from this morning's ECM op. Will be interesting when we get this weeks MetO deep dive to hear if there's an easterly cluster in the ECM ens too. 

I guess the issue with the pattern is modelling the play between HP positioning and strength and the jet angle and strength. Small tweaks to any of these are presumably why one op we get a lovely clean easterly and the next the Atlantic is pushing lows through just to the north of Scandi. 

More specifically talking about this morning's runs and I think the interesting thing is the shift westwards of the Scandi/Sceuro HP cell in a relatively short time period (T170-180ish). The NE ridging of the Azores HP* seems to be a help this morning as that get's absorbed in to the Scandi HP and forms part of the westward extension and with LP to the south colder air can get drawn towards the UK. There looks to be a lot that can go wrong with the setup to serve to collapse it, which I guess is often the issue with Easterlies - more prone to complete collapse than a northerly, where it's usually a question of whether it subsides after a day or two or lasts for a while. Modelled easterlies can go from ice days under -10 uppers to 10c and drizzle in a mild SW flow with minor tweaks to the jet modelling (as with the infamous model collapse a few years back). 

UKMO could again go either way from T168 and GEM having looked more primed for interest the last few runs is a no go this morning, although still with some potential. 

All in all and as others have mentioned there's definite potential/interest for something colder for the final week or so of the month and in to February. As you allude to though it's a long way out and needs to solidify and move closer to the reliable before confidence can increase. On the plus side it's a touch more interesting than just looking at whether the charts show a mild or very mild SW flow and throw any deep LPs our way. 

*I guess it'd be fair to argue that if the Azores HP cell b*ggered off then you're likely to have the jet moving under the block cleanly and the associated pressure gradient with LP underneath would probably bring a quicker and cleaner cold feed. 

The GEFS definitely seem to be trending the right way for cold but the excitement doesn't arrive for a couple of weeks. Looks like it will be the end of the month before any notable cold, so at least I might be able to eke out my dwindling stack of firewood!

spoiler shortwaves aplenty.  I cant see this coming off, at least not until the end of the month

Both forces have bedded down and it remains to be seen who emerges victorious from what promises to be a battle of the ages! (Or at least until the GFS 12z is published)

FWIW the Atlantic push doesn't (at T360) manage to do more than shunt the colder air back from the UK towards Scandi and the LPs hit the colder air and mostly spin around near us rather than piling through. Away from the southern third of the UK it generally stays on the cool side, so not a collapse to mild per se and still snow around at times for Northern hills, biased as you'd expect to Scotland.

Not a great run but not terrible either and does at least continue the theme. I'd hope that a few more ens members manage to bring cold our way and in a longer lasting way but have been a bit rubbish with ens guesses/assumptions lately! 

Edit: Did my usual take ages to post thing so hadn't seen GroundhogDays more succinct summary posted before!

Not really because as ever, there is no consistent trend from 10 days out. (I know that is less than a week, but I'm talking ensembles, in fact some might say a load of old ensembles! ) I mean has there ever been more than 50% accuracy at that range and by then it's about 50/50 mild or cold. I  will just wait now and see what changes take place in the week to ten days range as we trundle along through this milder spell.

Good summary. 

Even the end stages of GFS 6z are not without promise. The shape of the zonal train suggests that with some tweaks it could well dive under the block.

Will be interesting to see the ens from say 180 hours onwards. I'm expecting lots of variations on an Easterly theme with the odd corker thrown in.

Yeah you can see at the end of the run there's some energy heading SE under the block.

It'd be a surprise if there's not at least a couple of ens members that go all in with the easterly given how close the op was to that and the last couple of ens sets. 

😁

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=6&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Well this set are certainly not without interest! 

I wonder if the 12 ens will continue to keep the hope alive?

Lets see if the GEFS actually sticks a pin in that date or will the old JT (Jam Tomorrow) model glitch kick in...

A while ago some was complaining about Azores Low as well so i was shocked to read this, as I thought having a low over there is a great thing for us, it go east undercut over Spain/France.  Also a low over Azores allow a straight easterly flow from Europe to UK right into the Atlantic.  To get a strong easterly flow we need trains of Lows from Azores to Europe, not other way around which is a winter killer.

Of the members that don't have some kind of easterly component, a decent number are developing the HP and moving westwards, with the remainder stalling LPs over/near the UK. You can't really tell the bigger picture from the postage stamps, so some of the nicer looking setups could be 'iffy' and vice versa. 

Adds support for the possibility of something interesting in 10 days or so though, although highlights how balanced things appear to be at the moment. 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2026011212/gfsnh-13-168.png?12 

That ridge and bubble of warm air over svalbard is encouraging, I hope it means we can migrate the deep high, and eventually the surface anticyclone further north and bring in the colder air. Meanwhile we can hopefully get that trough from the atlantic to start cutting under and moving into Europe.

I guess technically we're in a south easterly or easterly on this run from T117 (ish), i.e next Saturday. HP is a bit of a slouch with a north/south stretch so at T162 we're only getting a shallow easterly feed and uppers are relatively mild in the south but a small area of colder air further north. 

The general bigger picture is encouraging again though as you say and if we can get that HP to move further north we can hopefully tap in to something colder (although I imagine it'll be pretty chilly at the surface anyway once the low level feed has established properly). 

Given the short sea track - at least for those of us in the south - and much of northern and eastern Europe probably still being snow-covered,, 850mb temperatures of -5 or so could be decidedly nippy at the surface.

JFF but the fact it too goes for an easterly adds a little to the positivity pile. 

For the physics based gadgets UKMO has HP largely held off at T168 although it could either go favourably or unfavourably from there so not a lot of help. Law of sod and averages would usually suggest unfavourably but we might just be in a beat the odds situation.

GEM looks to be heading in an okay direction at T201 - heights building north of scandi, stalling Atlantic and the LP over the UK seems to be (very gradually) sinking southwards which might help to pull the cold pool our way albeit there's a bubble of warm uppers just to our east/south east to get out of the way first. 

Edit: the ECM AI also manages to get an easterly in albeit it's messy and the Azores ridge gets too involved. It's still cold though and trying hard to carry on being cold at T336 as it sort of rebuilds. 

Second Edit - GEM does bring an easterly drift in but is a bit of a 'meh' setup at the end and really needs troughing over France to help move that big cold pool our way. Must try harder!

Brief easterly waft before the Atlantic takes all the pills and rampages over the UK (although doesn't actually pile through to the east, small positives). 

Hopefully it's gone off on one and doesn't have ens support and/or will revert to something a bit nicer tomorrow.