In my opinion the key is 'if' the low sinks south as most models are now picking up on...will the block to the NE build quickly enough to assert it's influence before the next pulse of energy emerges off the US .

+120 

+144 

+168 

To temper any enthusiasm it's deep FI, one run and ones of the least fancied GFS runs at that. 

Not long to see how the longer range GFS and ECM go on the 12z. As with ECMs fun little blip the other day, I'll wait until there's a stronger ens signal that's present for a few runs at least and has some cross model support before paying too much attention.  

I guess there's no reason why the next 5-6 weeks won't be some shade of zonal but it wouldn't surprise me to see a more blocked pattern again - the GEFS postage stamps have been fairly well split between settled or unsettled in deepish FI, although the unsettled stuff hasn't generally looked like a rampaging atlantic setup so not too tricky to break out of. 

Quite similar but signs the LP will move SE under the block?

12z GFS op finding a more dramatic way to get to a similar outcome eventually!

For what reason? You seem to only post if you think it will be mild with no reasoning. 

There's more energy spilling out into the Atlantic on the 12z , block to the east. Doesn't follow the same path as 06z

This is often how we'd get a cold spell in the 80s/90s - high pressure moving in from the very high latitudes, settling over Scandinavia and then ridging towards us. I still remember a synoptic chart in the Today newspaper back in the day where the caption said something like "Cold High H will move southwards over Scandinavia and introduce an easterly flow across the United Kingdom" - the late Philip Eden used to write the forecasts and he certainly knew his stuff! We did indeed end up with an easterly and our usual 6 inches of snow not long after. 

The big problem of late is that much of the ridging we get is from a displaced Azores High rather than a westwards extension or displacement of the Siberian High - the latter is rarely talked about these days but it's what powered many a cold spell in the past! It's fascinating to see *some* of the output of late showing such a scenario even if it's not (by a long shot) the favoured option.

12z ensembles show a drop on 15th so we need more runs to bring all other members to drop to down to -10C or below if the cold from the East do finally push west.  It now a important time to get this while we still have low solar and short daylight lasting for another month left to use it.

T384 rather nicely shows the blocking to the east eventually affecting us, albeit with a little help from the Azores HP:-

Deep FI obviously but at least the easterly is still being toyed with on the GFS at least. (Removed ECM comment, not sure what I was looking at but it wasn't the extended 12z run!)

A quick flick through the GEFS shows only limited support for an easterly, with P22 the poster child:-

All in all no strong support for an easterly but continued signs that if the Atlantic relents and the HP has managed to stick around for long enough, something might develop.  

That aside average still looks the order of the day down here, after a milder couple of days once the colder air is shifted. 

Edit:  usual caveats apply but looking just at the GEFS and the very end of the run whilst not a lot go full easterly there's a fair few that are tantalisingly poised. I suspect the law of averages/sod etc. will mean the potential on display isn't realised but there's a reasonable number of straws to clutch at the moment if you don't want to resign yourself to a lengthy zonal period. 

I wonder if its the last frost we see until November!  

GFS seems to have led us up the garden path again.  ECM not budging. 

GFS still showing a messy easterly from Jan 20th onwards. By then milder air is in the mix to the east of us 🤔

It's all just for fun anyway. 12 hrs ago the models were indicating a snowy morning with Yellow and Amber warnings for snow covering Scotland. In reality it's +2-4 C with heavy rain instead 🙄

GFS Op - agrees, in fact the LP on Thu moves as it fills Sat 17th to 1000mb Cornwall. Next LP Tue 20th spits out another secondary for the Channel, before the traditional FI Scandi HP appears 1040mb Sat 24th before ridging to Scotland and cutting a brief spell of weak E-lies. It looks as if worries over water supplies in the south at least may be over.

ECM - same pattern as GFS to T+240 (Wed 21st) with controlling LP near Iceland and troughs or small secondaries for Britain, the latter a bit further N than shown on GFS (Note, I haven't given up on T+360 ECM permanently but it doesn't generally download until 8am which doesn't fit with where I'm staying) EDIT at 0915 But now that it has appeared and I have a moment, it has no truck with HP anywhere near Britain or Scandinavia, rather it has the semi-permanent LP near Iceland running SW-lies across Britain and all the way up to N Norway.

AIFS - London, maxima from 10C (at first and again later) and 5C, rain on more days than not. Edinburgh, similar, temp pattern switching from 10C to 5C and back more abruptly.

GEFS - mean temp pretty well flat lining after brief mild day or two, and ens members agree (around 24th control is mildest member and op coldestbut only 3 or 4C from mean) Rain frequent and persistent , heaviest in first week and esp so in SW and Wales. Snow row in single figures and often zero, even in Scotland.

The idea is picked up and dropped all inside 24 hours , on numerous occasions 

Indicates the risk but it feels all unlikely?

Next 7-10 days look consistent. Around average temperatures and some wet weather. Risk of mountain snow

We are at the point of winter though, where if something doesn't assert itself soon on a cold pattern, spring is approaching

Down here, February has been balmy mild in recent years after mid month, that's only 4 weeks away.

Of course,  always exceptions to draw upon from the past but they are exceptions. A notable cold spell could happen and spill into March (as we know) 

Winter has changed. In my location, we do still get some level of notable cold during the season, its just been narrowed to January 

December has just become November v2 in recent years here and February has become an extension of Spring but January hasn't been too bad

Last January was cold centrally, 2.8C last year for me. With x18 nights sub zero

Currently on x8 nights sub zero , feels like I might not surpass 2025 with x16 nights?