Although not curtains for us and cold, I never feel confident when the US is in deep freeze

Both sides of the Atlantic can be cold but its rare 

It might end up being the most interesting thing about the next 2 weeks - the lack of overly mild weather in an unsettled setup (incoming blip aside). 

Looking at the ops today, I still think the key thing is how the models are handling pressure north of scandi. Whether it's a case of the blocking helps push the jet energy south or the jet is modelled differently is for someone with a bit more knowledge than me.

ECM - energy heads NE over Scandi, no blocking and the LPs continue heading that way for much of the run. 

GFS - weak blocking north of Scandi and ridging towards Greenland, this develops and LP fails to head E/NE

GEM is similar to GFS, although weak blocking by this point is more extensive and less energy in the atlantic.

Not sure which way UKMO would go.

Ultimately it's entirely possible neither setup would lead to anything interesting but the GFS and GEM approach would be much more likely to IMO. 

The op at least is a frustrating run - promising setup for a decent chunk of the run but we generally end up in a no mans land with coolish unsettled weather before things look more boring deep in FI and weak northern blocking disappears. 

Will see what the ensembles bring but given previous sets were strongly clustered around average down here (next couple of days aside) I suspect the 6z set will bring more of the same. 

I did also have a quick look at the ECM strat winds forecast and nothing of interest on there either, so that's not currently a straw to clutch. I don't look at those that often but was interesting to compare the forecast position from just before NYE to now, as it didn't pick up the week long drop below average. A dataset of one isn't sensible but at least shows the forecasts can get things wrong at range although you'd expect at least a vague signal if something interesting was on the horizon and there really isn't one.

Agree about the source of those high's which were common enough to occur or at least influence the extreme East most winters in my earlier years hence the relatively frequent heavy snow showers in Kent and East Anglia which seem to have gone forever.

Yes, Philip was a top bloke and used to be on UKSW back in the day when we were. He got fed up with it and left abruptly when a certain "armchair" forecaster as he called him started constant bickering, but of course social media was much more polite in those days! Actually I got to visit his weather stations and the library in his house when we went to lunch with our mutual friend, the late Ron Button. He was actually very shy for a "celebrity".

Yes I noticed that. At least at this time of year they are clustering around an 850 hPa of -3C and drifting below. It doesn't take much at this time of year to be cold.

I'll see that and raise you P11 (T+168)

And the USA has has a cold December too...they are doing well for cold then!? Poor seasonal forecasts which were showing well above average temps then...for usa.

The forecasts for northern and eastern US were for a colder than average winter 

The GEFS aren't without interest again - there's a few cold members (in deep FI) and quite a few that are close but no cigar. 

Will see what the ECM suite comes up with in a bit. 

Could be the case, though I'd like to think we'll get at least one more cold spell this winter from what isn't *currently* a desperate situation.

Having looked at the GFS 12 ens, there's plenty of scatter long-term and the postage stamps certainly don't cry 'raging zonality' in that time frame. I still think such an intense block makes the ens more suspect than normal, and *perhaps" susceptible to sudden change from the medium-term onwards.  

I'm sure we're all suffering from model fatigue right now. Let's see if anything truly  interesting begins to show by the middle to end of next week. 

My thoughts exactly 👍 I think model fatigue has understandably set in just now. I'm going to carbo-load on some classic countryfile winter recordings so I'm sufficiently energised for the next chase 😁

Yep, just gone through them and think there's more in favour of interest than against. Even if on the graph, the 850s don't look good, the synoptics are setting up for a little later. 

Really? CFS looked above normal, even Met Office back in October and November showed a a probability of above average winter in terms of temperatures between 60-80%  chance and only a 20% chance of it being below normal - see here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob 

Yes really, that’s why I posted it. Initially, the eastern US was projected to have an average or maybe above average winter, but this was revised in November. 

Looks like the easterly isn’t quite dead and buried yet 

The ECM op eventually goes on to bring -12 850s in from the east too, a marked switch from yesterday's 12z op. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/81/9010/ecmwf_1_324csn0.png 

Incidentally the ECM46 switched yesterday to showing a colder outlook for week 3, i.e. the end of January into February. It's always worth taking note of this, as I said before Christmas when it started showing blues for early to mid-January it's a very rare thing these days to see!

The ECM46 has been flip-flopping a bit of late, though, and I'd want to see consistency for a few days before getting too excited. The flips have coincided with the flips in the MetO's extended outlook and I'm sure that's no coincidence - almost certainly the ECM46 is the biggest input into that part of the forecast.

There's certainly continuing interest in the outlook - even if the next few days are a mild mushfest.

Definitely,  can we countdown to a Beast?

In the meantime the secondary low running around the main trough for early Friday needs watching as some of the suite develop this into a troublemaker.

GFS Op - after the above, the LP near Iceland weakens and runs S-wards 1000mb Ireland Sat 17th while HP develops over Lapland 1040mb Mon 19th. This HP blocks the advance of Atlantic LPs to some extent and S/SE-lies appear over Britain rather than SW-lies. By Sat 24th the HP is still there 1035mb and with pressure low over S France, the wind has gone round to a true E-ly but not connected to a source of deep cold. The Scandi HP collapses abruptly allowing an Arctic LP to move down the N Sea with NE-lies for England Wed 28th (could be quite wintry in the SE)

ECM (to T+240) - like GFS though the Scandi HP is further south (Over Poland but  more intense1050mb). It moves N-wards to match the GFS output and by Thu 22nd the E-lies are just beginning to develop.

AIFS - London, maxima currrently 10C dropping irregularly eventually producing an ice day on Mon 26th; rain Tue 13th Fri 16th and Fri 23rd. Winds mostly S-ly until 23rd when switch to N-ly. Edinburgh, maxima now near 10C, soon dropping to 3-5C and staying there until colder on Mon 26th; frequent small amounts of rain to Sat 24th winds mostly S-ly throughout.

GEFS - mean 2 or 3 C above norm for a couple of days, steadily dropping to 2 or 3 C below by Wed 28th; a fair number of cold ens members from Sat 24th including op and control. Rain 14th 16th and 19th, less marked in N, small amounts thereafter. An uptick in snaow row figures at the end of the forecast period, but not above 50%.

Outputs setting up a model-watching tease for coldies at the end of January, but plenty of rain to get through first.