The Weather Outlook

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tallyho_83
06 January 2026 15:34:48
Take a look at Brian's 14 day weather outlook here:

https://youtu.be/1hY9zLBvzhI?si=QOHUWnpPfpj-PN7N 

A lot of uncertainty still over this LP system on Thursday..!?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

TheJudge
07 January 2026 10:14:24
Met office possible outcomes for Thursday …

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rYU-X15qqoQ&list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt&pp=iAQB 


Barby 551 ft above sea level
doctormog
07 January 2026 14:15:26
The medium range Met Office update this afternoon is fascinating and highlights the uncertainty in the model output very nicely:

“Monday 12 Jan - Wednesday 21 Jan

This period carries much more uncertainty than usual as milder air from the Atlantic attempts to displace the cold air over the UK. On balance milder, or at least less cold conditions are likely to make some progress into the country by Monday, bringing a spell of snow for some areas, most likely central and northern parts with rain more likely across the south and west, before it either clears or dies out. It’s uncertain as to whether these less cold conditions ever reach the extreme north and east, and here it may well remain cold throughout. Further into next week its likely to remain cold across the north and east, these colder condition possibly extending back into the rest of the country.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 7 Jan 2026”


warrenb
07 January 2026 14:51:31

The medium range Met Office update this afternoon is fascinating and highlights the uncertainty in the model output very nicely:

“Monday 12 Jan - Wednesday 21 Jan

This period carries much more uncertainty than usual as milder air from the Atlantic attempts to displace the cold air over the UK. On balance milder, or at least less cold conditions are likely to make some progress into the country by Monday, bringing a spell of snow for some areas, most likely central and northern parts with rain more likely across the south and west, before it either clears or dies out. It’s uncertain as to whether these less cold conditions ever reach the extreme north and east, and here it may well remain cold throughout. Further into next week its likely to remain cold across the north and east, these colder condition possibly extending back into the rest of the country.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 7 Jan 2026”

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes very interesting isn't it. Def hint at Scandi high in that


Retron
07 January 2026 15:12:41

Yes very interesting isn't it. Def hint at Scandi high in that

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

...and the extended one is also worth a read!

"The outlook through the latter part of January and into the start of February is typically uncertain. A broadly southwesterly regime is marginally favoured bringing changeable conditions and spells of wet, windy and mild weather are likely, potentially with some very strong winds at times. However there is a chance that drier and colder conditions could extend into the UK from the east or northeast, along with a risk of some snow.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Wed 7 Jan 2026"


Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2026 15:33:29
Fantastic Met update 👌 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jim-55
07 January 2026 15:37:46

Fantastic Met update 👌 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yep, brings us snow starved wurzels back into the frame, let's hope this yellow warning yields something more than the other ones we've had, which I might add yielded nowt. 


Previously JimC. joined back then in 2009. Frome, N/E Somerset, 125mtrs asl.
Brian Gaze
08 January 2026 16:41:25
Today's Met update is as interesting as yesterday's albeit for different reasons. It shows there is still no silver bullet in medium range forecasting - even the ensembles can change quickly. 

"There is now much higher confidence for milder air to overspread the UK by the start of this period with the last of the cold air of the past couple of weeks expected to clear from the extreme northeast during the course of Monday. So this period likely to see brisk southwesterly winds bringing a very different feel to the weather than of late. There will be some rain or showers at times, but also a good deal of dry weather and although often cloudy, some brighter interludes are expected, especially to the lee of high ground. The milder conditions will see temperatures widely above average, and will lead to a rapid thaw of any remaining lying snow across northern parts of Scotland."

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/uk 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Bellevarde
08 January 2026 17:22:14
This is unbelievable. The latest BBC forecast available on the BBC Weather home page as of 17:15 opens with Stav Danaos stating that the red danger to life warning has 'now expired' when in actual fact it only came into force at 16:00 and lasts until 23:00. What on earth is going on?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather 

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
08 January 2026 17:49:57
He's saying there is no more danger from this storm. It's an all clear announcement perhaps? But no detail as to why they have downgraded the red warning.
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Bellevarde
08 January 2026 17:53:45
Retron
08 January 2026 17:55:56

This is unbelievable. The latest BBC forecast available on the BBC Weather home page as of 17:15 opens with Stav Danaos stating that the red danger to life warning has 'now expired' when in actual fact it only came into force at 16:00 and lasts until 23:00. What on earth is going on?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather 

Originally Posted by: Bellevarde 

The charts he shows start later on this evening. I'd bet they recorded it for airing later today, but someone put it live a bit too early! 


Leysdown, north Kent
Bellevarde
08 January 2026 18:00:19

The charts he shows start later on this evening. I'd bet they recorded it for airing later today, but someone put it live a bit too early! 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Agreed but it is not great in a rare red weather warning situation is it? Maybe a bit far fetched but someone in Cornwall could watch that and then decide 'well I can go out this evening after all'. I just think it is careless.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
08 January 2026 18:08:37
Someone will have to take the blame for that one. 
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Retron
08 January 2026 18:15:59

Someone will have to take the blame for that one. 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

It also seems a bit deceitful, for want of a better word. I would expect given the situation of a red warning having just expired that the forecast would start with mentioning the highest wind speeds so far, but of course they can't if they recorded it early and are pretending it's more recent than it is! 


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
08 January 2026 18:28:30
I’m surprised they don’t have a process in place for when amber and red warnings are in effect that allows them to more or less broadcast live. It seems very odd to be using canned short-range, detailed forecasts in this situation, at least to me.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Bugglesgate
08 January 2026 20:19:20
Lower down the food chain from red warnings,

The MO doesn't seem to coordinate its local  forecasts to the warnings.

Didcot and Oxford are well within the yellow snow warning for tomorrow, but the local forecasts show 

4 deg - Didcot   and   4 deg in  Oxford with sleet.   I can't see anything worth a warning happening with 4 deg !!

What do you believe ??


Chris (It,its)

Between Newbury and Basingstoke

"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"

Snow Hoper
08 January 2026 20:33:20

Lower down the food chain from red warnings,

The MO doesn't seem to coordinate its local  forecasts to the warnings.

Didcot and Oxford are well within the yellow snow warning for tomorrow, but the local forecasts show 

4 deg - Didcot   and   4 deg in  Oxford with sleet.   I can't see anything worth a warning happening with 4 deg !!

What do you believe ??

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 

What if the forecasted high happens before the snow? The yellow warning ⚠️ is for the potential for it to happen, nothing more. 


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 January 2026 17:21:40
7 separate MetO warnings for ice, rain snow  and wind over the next 3 days, including one at Amber for snow in the southern highlands.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

ballamar
12 January 2026 14:35:20
Subtle hints on the longer term Met Office forecasts mentions highs to the North and North East, winter hazards.

I do think they should change to probability forecasts by area rather than the vague wording 

Jiries
12 January 2026 15:50:42

Subtle hints on the longer term Met Office forecasts mentions highs to the North and North East, winter hazards.

I do think they should change to probability forecasts by area rather than the vague wording 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

I always wonder why most like to read those updates, they are so boring really, so bland wording and really same wording all year around not only winter but summer too.  I never read them but seeing those when they post it here or in NW made me zzzzz.  They need to spice up a bit and make it lively updates.

I used to love reading Bill Giles forecast as it was very interesting and lively updates at times like during heatwaves or cold spells and mostly all came off.

Jiries
12 January 2026 15:56:27

Lower down the food chain from red warnings,

The MO doesn't seem to coordinate its local  forecasts to the warnings.

Didcot and Oxford are well within the yellow snow warning for tomorrow, but the local forecasts show 

4 deg - Didcot   and   4 deg in  Oxford with sleet.   I can't see anything worth a warning happening with 4 deg !!

What do you believe ??

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 

I also read a part in the Midlands thread about the BBC made a article about the snow and saying worst to come, when it was already outdated as the snow already arrived a day early.  The wording worst made me boil with anger, this is not the worst but the best ever snow to come.  Seem they consider snow worst and lot of hatred with snow so thanks god I am not paying the TV Licence.  They never say worst to come with rain? Rain are a lot worst for summer and winter, it either kill winter season or summer season when rain a lot.

Whiteout
13 January 2026 15:12:57
Blimey, quite an update in the LRF:

Sunday 18 Jan - Tuesday 27 Jan

Slow evolving weather patterns in the vicinity of the UK are most favoured through this period, with low pressure often to the west or southwest and high pressure near or over Scandinavia. Areas of rain or showers will attempt to push into some western and southwestern parts of the UK in particular, but possibly making limited eastwards progress. Longer, drier interludes are most likely in the east and northeast, though potentially rather cloudy at times. A gradual trend towards colder conditions is most likely through this period, especially in the south and east. As such, whilst wintry precipitation will be more reserved for hills initially, this may become more likely to lower levels later in the period.

I would caveat by saying these have been flip flopping a lot recently...


Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

scillydave
16 January 2026 07:44:53
Anyone else had their Met Office App update?

I hate it. Absolutely awful. 

It's child like in appearance,  covered in adverts, difficult to navigate and a general huge step backwards. I'm really disappointed as it was one of the few weather Apps that I really liked. 

You don't even get the text forecast on it anymore - so no overview for your region and no long range either.

Grrrr!


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

TheJudge
16 January 2026 08:13:24

Anyone else had their Met Office App update?

I hate it. Absolutely awful. 

It's child like in appearance,  covered in adverts, difficult to navigate and a general huge step backwards. I'm really disappointed as it was one of the few weather Apps that I really liked. 

You don't even get the text forecast on it anymore - so no overview for your region and no long range either.

Grrrr!

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

Scrolled through it yesterday, absolutely awful, leave a review on the App Store. It’s an app I won’t be using anymore. 

Edit… there is a feedback page in the app for your opinions.


Barby 551 ft above sea level

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