“Heavy snow showers will become more frequent and may merge to give longer spells of snow at times. The area and period covered by this warning are when the heaviest and most disruptive snow is thought most likely during the current cold spell, with existing yellow warnings covering a wider area and a longer period.

Further accumulations of 10-20cm are likely at low levels with 30-40cm possible on high ground. Windy conditions will also result in some drifting of snow and temporary blizzard conditions.”

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2026-01-02 

“Heavy snow showers will become more frequent and may merge to give longer spells of snow at times. The areas and period covered by this warning are when the heaviest and most disruptive snow is thought most likely during the current cold spell, with existing yellow warnings covering a wider area and a longer period.

Further accumulations of 5-10 cm is likely to fall fairly widely, with a few places seeing 20-30 cm over mainland Scotland. Strong winds at times may cause further drifting of snow and temporary blizzard conditions”

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings&ved=2ahUKEwjBwsbo1vGRAxV2UkEAHbqBEVYQFnoECCMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw20L3v6GHFOFlx8khlv7AIB 

whereas the GFS model has it crossing the S Midlands  as a much deeper feature with gales and rain to the south

I think I know what the actual answer will be 😒

Nice if we get a red warning for snow as only time to see red warning was during the 40C heatwave.  Checking the MO thread on other side sadly too much obsession about Friday LP as I have 0 interest with it.  More interested with snow tonight than Friday one, it won't happen at all either is go south or too far north that give snow to boring non populations areas like highlands.

I'm hoping the Chilterns will help squeeze out a bit more ppt, but I can't imagine amounts will be a problem here, let alone farther south east. 

I've just seen a BBC Scotland forecast though which gives us a chance of snow here in Edinburgh as early as tomorrow morning, so I wouldn't completely give up on that just yet and even today's little snow flurries were still better than nothing at all.

I love the phrase "periods of snow". So evocative of my youth to hear that magic phrase. 😀

Probably for the ‘things that annoy you’ thread, but the way they put city centre temperatures up is very misleading.  Even if somewhere in London reaches 7c, which I think is doubtful based on the models. Mogreps says 5c for London, 2c for here.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1CeRuNBVAH/?mibextid=wwXIfr 

A long way of saying it is going to be sh*t and ending up mild and windy!

I take it you haven’t watched it. I’m surprised there’s not more excitement in here from the non-mammals 

Interesting 50% chance of disruptive snow in central areas.  

As always the track of the low is critical. Further north and it’s a washout for the South. My personal preference is for it to disappear over France. Wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened either. That piece does show a clear preference in the current ens for a track somewhere near or over the south coast 

Watched that earlier on YouTube: the MetOffice model looks out of step with the ECM ensemble suite. Another of those situations where you wouldn’t want to be trying to forecast the weather for Thursday into Friday. Tonight’s ECM keeps its consistent theme of rain moving in during Thursday afternoon and then the heavier stuff bringing the freezing level down and turning it to very heavy snow.  

I seem to recall Darren suggesting that the ECM snow cover chart assumed anything with snow in it was treated as snow. I’d be surprised if there was that much on the ground, especially after the initial heavy rain.

Yes, the Met Model one of the most northerly. The chances of a perfect scenario in any one place must be relatively low. All the metrics look so borderline, but as others have noted recently - that’s what can produce some of the most notable falls for southern areas 

I did and it confirmed what we suspect. The position of the LP will dictate whether we will get gales and transient snow in England before we get mild and rain. 

Did it? It gave scenarios, none of which “confirm” anything. 

That’s not what the presenter said?  The summary was that the LP could track anywhere from crossing the middle of England down to northern France, with the consensus of the ECM ensemble suite putting the path across the south of England.  He emphasised it wasn’t clear yet but the MetOffice op run was not supported by the ECM run.

Somehow I don’t see this being resolved until Wednesday’s 12z runs, and even then it might not be clear.

I have three weather apps on my phone: the MetOffice one says rain, another says rain and snow, the third says 30cm of snow falling overnight into Friday…

Yes my thoughts exactly . Wednesday night should be the time we can narrow this down to the point were we know the main risk area(s). Even then we may have suprise areas come the day based on intensity and slight increases in altitude