The Weather Outlook

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Lionel Hutz
17 December 2025 10:18:28

Some nappy wetting on the other channel about the trend for the weekend ‘trigger’ low to not drop south enough (a la 06Z ICON) or stalling to our west instead of clearing south and east.

This was and still is fairly pivotal to events next week with respect depth of cold, but might not be too impactful as we go further into low probability territory towards New Year. 

Water, bridges, etc - as it always is.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

There has always been alot of uncertainty in the outlook. Haven't looked at the other channel but perhaps some on that channel got a little bit carried away with the more spectacular, cherry picked runs? You only need to look at the GFS ensembles to see that nothing is certain nor is there anything too exciting in the reliable timeframe at least:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london 

The Op is average until the 29th and the Control is exactly spectacular either. However, there is a definite cooling trend to average and below with generally dryer conditions. There are also some very cold members within the ensembles, especially after the 27th/28th, that's when the interest really starts. But that's all beyond 144 hrs and it's too soon to be nailed on either way. Yes, it may go nowhere but it's the most interesting set up for a while as far as I'm concerned. There are possibilities.

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Brian Gaze
17 December 2025 10:22:06
The big picture hasn't really changed this morning. Christmas Day remains uncertain, although fewer runs in the GEFS 00Z update show cold conditions than in some recent updates, at least in the south.

Edit: AIGFS is considered a production / operational model from today or tomorrow.

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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+2
Tim A
17 December 2025 10:31:25
Looks like winds will come from the East over Christmas.  I would say dull and drizzly with cold rain showers looks probable, perhaps more in the way of frost in the sheltered NW.    AIFS GFS 6Z is "the best easterly option" but even that isn't really cold enough for anything of interest.   There haven't really been any snow bearing charts apart from the odd ensemble member.  Perhaps a slow burner though and we get a way to tap into some proper cold air after Christmas.  More chance than usual anyway. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

+1
Jiries
17 December 2025 10:38:03

Indeed the issue is can we get properly cold air over the UK. This morning would suggest unlikely. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

We need proper cold to enjoy it than less cold temperatures of 1-4c with cold rain like last year,  Europe need to drop well below -5c to -10C maxes to deliver us some -1 to -2C much needed temperatures to get powdery snow and not melt so fast before you go outside.   Hope come nearer the time the models to get cold levels being upgraded.  USA already done that so Europe and UK are entitled to get same coldness levels.  I see Toronto going for less cold temperatures over Xmas so a good chance for us here.

+1
The Beast from the East
17 December 2025 11:25:26
I see Pete Tong has crashed the party. Inevitable really.  I suppose there is still time to swing back. Tomorrows rain looks further east all of a sudden and flooding now possible round here in the usual spots.  
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

+1
Ally Pally Snowman
17 December 2025 11:40:36
Quite a nice AIFS 6z,  850s around -8c to -5 for a week starting Christmas day. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
17 December 2025 11:41:19

I see Pete Tong has crashed the party. Inevitable really.  I suppose there is still time to swing back. Tomorrows rain looks further east all of a sudden and flooding now possible round here in the usual spots.  

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Yes both runs of control and Op are showing HP sinking southwards instead of retrogressing NW wards like it has done over past few runs I notice - I guess this means it must be turning colder in NE America then...typical!

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Rob K
17 December 2025 11:42:40
Seems like the consensus is moving towards the Xmas high pressure coming under more, uh, pressure from the northwest and getting shoved back into Europe in fairly short order before it can allow any cold air to flow round to the UK. 

Having said that, GEM and ECM suggest it might be a bit more stubborn, and there look to be some peachy runs coming out in the 6Z GEFS...

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gandalf The White
17 December 2025 11:50:38
The ECM 00z ensemble set looks pretty solid at the moment.  Here’s the 2m temperature graph for my patch:

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=312&y=114&run=0&type=2&runpara=0&mode=1 

Cool, trending cold, and largely dry beyond tomorrow’s deluge.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



+2
Ally Pally Snowman
17 December 2025 11:51:54
doctormog
17 December 2025 12:12:00

Snowy Boxing day on the AIFS 6z. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=6&time=228&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Perhaps in the far SE corner, elsewhere there would be cold rain. All quite academic though at this range.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Ally Pally Snowman
17 December 2025 12:38:40

Perhaps in the far SE corner, elsewhere there would be cold rain. All quite academic though at this range.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

It's borderline I'll give you that for my location as the heaviest pp moves in it's 2c, -7c 850s and 0c dewpoint. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
GroundhogDay
17 December 2025 12:41:34
Surely as veterans to this hobby, you all must realise there will be many twists and turns to come? The broad picture remains - to my mind - exactly the same as it has throughout, basically a period where things settle down and from there we shall have to wait and see. 

Would anyone really wish for an Easterly bearing + 850s?? The drizzle-fest would be nothing short of horrific! If that initial solution fails then I'm sure many would be rather happy 😁 

I still think some juicy charts will pop up over the coming days, with potentially good stuff to come around the New Year. Worst case a crisp Xmas and a drier post Xmas walk will suffice. 

Happy Xmas one and all, let's keep those spirits up and see what transpires 😊

Based in the snow desert that is North Northants
+6
Gandalf The White
17 December 2025 13:39:04

Surely as veterans to this hobby, you all must realise there will be many twists and turns to come? The broad picture remains - to my mind - exactly the same as it has throughout, basically a period where things settle down and from there we shall have to wait and see. 

Would anyone really wish for an Easterly bearing + 850s?? The drizzle-fest would be nothing short of horrific! If that initial solution fails then I'm sure many would be rather happy 😁 

I still think some juicy charts will pop up over the coming days, with potentially good stuff to come around the New Year. Worst case a crisp Xmas and a drier post Xmas walk will suffice. 

Happy Xmas one and all, let's keep those spirits up and see what transpires 😊

Originally Posted by: GroundhogDay 

But as the saying goes, you have to kiss a lot of frogs to find your prince…. In other words, a lot of dismal charts before the magical one actually verifies.   The problem these days is an excess of frogs….. 🤔😉

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



+2
Gandalf The White
17 December 2025 13:45:17
The London GFS 06z ensemble set at 850hPa shows the Op was on the milder side, aside for 24 hours, from Boxing Day through to the end, and increasingly poorly supported, mostly in the upper quartile or decile.

Much more in line at T2m, and the snow count has ticked up, peaking at 16% on Boxing Day.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1&dmode=1 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



+1
nsrobins
17 December 2025 15:30:47
12Z ICON is about as good as we can expect out of the mythical Xmas day flurry scenario with a direct hit across the south of circa. -9 at 850.

It’s still possible - and that in itself is a huge deal given the complete dross we’ve suffered for the last decade or so.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

+2
Retron
17 December 2025 15:34:21

12Z ICON is about as good as we can expect out of the mythical Xmas day flurry scenario with a direct hit across the south of circa. -9 at 850.

It’s still possible - and that in itself is a huge deal given the complete dross we’ve suffered for the last decade or so.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I'd take that with open arms!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/11/8504/icon_16_180jag7.png 

(Snow on the ground chart from ICON for midnight on Christmas Day - a dusting for some!)

UserPostedImage

Leysdown, north Kent
+1
overland
17 December 2025 16:26:34
Pretty impressive output from the 12z so far. I think it was 2021 when there was an easterly promise for Christmas which eventually failed, but as of now 2025 does look good.
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
17 December 2025 16:49:42
AIGFS has New Year's nailed.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&aigfs=1 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
17 December 2025 16:52:36
And GEM has Christmas nailed... ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️☃️⛄️

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=25&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+4
Ally Pally Snowman
17 December 2025 17:01:04
GEM really is a beauty it basically has snow for most of England  for 48hrs from Christmas day to the 27th. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+3
doctormog
17 December 2025 17:04:07
Still variations on an anticyclonic and cool theme based on the 12z output so far. There is a bit of wintry potential around and lots of potential for anticyclonic gloom too.
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

+1
Retron
17 December 2025 17:06:28

GEM really is a beauty it basically has snow for most of England  for 48hrs from Christmas day to the 27th. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I've deleted my post as it was largely a dupe, but there's one bit which is worth repeating - GEM's snow on the ground maps are utter tripe, for want of a better word, and seem to assume that every single flake of sleet, let alone snow, accumulates with ease. 

They do look good though! 😁

Leysdown, north Kent
+6
Ally Pally Snowman
17 December 2025 17:08:34

I've deleted my post as it was largely a dupe, but there's one bit which is worth repeating - GEM's snow on the ground maps are utter tripe, for want of a better word, and seem to assume that every single flake of sleet, let alone snow, accumulates with ease. 

They do look good though! 😁

Originally Posted by: Retron 

We can dream....

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+4
Whiteout
17 December 2025 17:23:58
Wow, after the biblical rain we have been having down here, it would be just how the weather works these days for it to switch to a full blown Easterly in a heartbeat, and over Christmas, couldn't make it up..
Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

+3

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