A sight for sore eyes, ptb 8 dumps 4 inches of snow here with 850s of -13 or so... the run of the winter so far! 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/91/21755/gensfr_8_9_312xyy3.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/22/15236/gensfr_8_0_288mvz1.png 

Amusingly that all stems from it failing to clear the trigger low south properly, the Atlantic pushes the Azores ridge out of the way and the above is the result.  There's a few of the 6z GFS ens that do similar still, although less than when I looked yesterday, will check the 12z set later.

Just adds a little caution that the nicer looking stuff is still FI I guess. 

Overall though the pattern change still looks likely with HP dominating maybe with an easterly flavour for a few days at least but still TBC on that front. I'm still glass half empty re the 850s, which look the wrong side of marginal to me but as it's all FI and will be seasonal at least, what will be will be!

My eyes zoomed in on the 'snow shield' over MBY

😥

That is impressive bound to verify for you 😂

I looked at the GFS 12z control run and almost choked on my mulled wine!

It was indeed a bitter run. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=17&run=12&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Very nice

Tis a fun run - 3 near ice days IMBY towards the end, a couple of cold pools wandering through and 850s of -12 at their lowest for a few areas. It also looks primed for a reload of colder uppers, rather like the cold spells of ye olden days. DPs are pretty low too, so some proper continental air IMBY at times.

Shows the potential in much the same way as the GEM chart I cherry picked earlier shows how it might go less well. 

Quite an entertaining bit of model watching and a possibly dramatic shift from very mild and wet to cold and mostly dry (or more likely given the ens at the moment chilly). 

if todays charts directly translate, we will see them  probably looking dry right up until about 48hrs, before they show any shower activity.

Even if it doesnt pull off, its still represents the best wintry xmas charts in years

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Model-output-breakout-thread 

It’s nice to see these more wintry members in the ensembles but currently they remain in the minority.

Yes, good summary.

Christmas is still over a week away and even the broad pattern isn’t resolved yet, let alone the detail.  The overnight runs offer a range of scenarios around high pressure somewhere to the north and east-northeast.  My sense is that the likelihood of tapping into any really cold air has reduced, as has the retrogression post Christmas, pulling in the Arctic northerly.  As always, is it the usual wobble around a theme or a change in the next likely pattern? 

GFS Op 0z; picks up from FAX and has the trough backing towards Ireland, deepening to a defined LP and then running south to Biscay 995mb by Wed 24th with an E-ly drift for Britain, cool but not really cold air entrained. This LP bumbles around N France /SW Britain (deepest 995mb Bristol Channel Boxing Day) with higher pressure from Scotland to Norway. By Fri 2nd the HP pulls back to Norway/C Europe and the Atlantic asserts itself with mild and strong S-lies for western parts.

ECM: similar to GFS but tales the LP further south (1005mb SE Spain) and increases the HP cell over Scotland (1040mb) by Fri 26th with stronger but still not cold E-lies, sometimes more SE-ly. The pressure difference between these two declines and again the Atlantic is back with S/SW-lies by Fri 2nd

AIFS London, maxima dropping from 10C now to about 3C between Christmas and New Year, an uptick at the very end, some rain this week esp Thu/Fri 18th/19th, hints of snow flurries after Christmas. Edinburgh, similar to London until Tue 30th, then a dramatic rise in maximum to 13C with rain

GEFS: in the S, mild with rain tomorrow (Thu), then near norm with a some rain through to Boxing Day, after which a considerable spread (esp in S) of ens members, majority around 5C  below norm (less in N, actually near norm in far N) but nearly all dry, back to norm for New Year.  Snow rows in many places have single figure values, but not more.

Seasonably cold for Christmas but almost no sign of snow.

This was and still is fairly pivotal to events next week with respect depth of cold, but might not be too impactful as we go further into low probability territory towards New Year. 

Water, bridges, etc - as it always is.