The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
19 March 2025 07:08:46
You can tell when a particular person writes these forecasts by the language they use.

There is someone in Exeter or is it the the BBC site who often writes and uses "will be associated".  More than once so it sticks in my mind.

Quite what will be 'associated' with what is never clear though they think it is, but it's a language fingerprint I find interesting.

We all do it and you see it on TWO too. 

It helps to show when a post is or isn’t a copy and paste from another writer outside the forum.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Retron
09 April 2025 18:32:08
Have to say the MetO SE text forecast is way off the mark tonight!

Thursday:

Low cloud, mist and fog clearing through the morning, with largely sunny skies by the afternoon. Feeling warm with light and variable winds. Maximum temperature 16 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Sunny and warm Friday once overnight fog clears, although probably hazier. Increasing risk of rain and showers over the weekend with cooler conditions likely.

Updated: 17:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 9 Apr 2025

"Cooler conditions likely"? Hmm... here's the raw output, and look at the temperatures for the weekend... not exactly "cooler", even compared to their 16C forecast for tomorrow.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/forecast.jpg 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 April 2025 21:07:13
Exact date 'snow bomb' to blanket Britain with 7cm as temperatures plummet to 0C

A new map from forecaster Ventusky shows Birmingham bearing the brunt of upcoming snowfall on Sunday, April 20, with up to 7cm forecast to fall over the city. Stoke-on-Trent, Leicester, Greater Manchester, Leeds, Bradford and some areas of the northeast also feature in the forecasts.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/exact-date-snow-bomb-blanket-35022470 

Clickbait


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
12 May 2025 09:22:17
The editor who you would think would have their head screwed on seems to have had the wool pulled over their eyes with this one.

https://dorchester.nub.news/news/weather-news/weather-forecast-for-this-week-in-dorchester-12-may-to-18-may-259783 

April 1st?


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Retron
12 May 2025 10:15:08

The editor who you would think would have their head screwed on seems to have had the wool pulled over their eyes with this one.

https://dorchester.nub.news/news/weather-news/weather-forecast-for-this-week-in-dorchester-12-may-to-18-may-259783 

April 1st?

Originally Posted by: NMA 

LOL, that smacks of some kid at the company running "AI" over some automated output and not thinking to check.

The days of local papers having their own met man are long gone, sadly!


Leysdown, north Kent
Matty H
12 May 2025 10:17:18

LOL, that smacks of some kid at the company running "AI" over some automated output and not thinking to check.

The days of local papers having their own met man are long gone, sadly!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Why would you need them these days? We have a MetO with an all-encompassing online presence. Any idiot can go and find their regional forecast. The above is just because someone was thick


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
13 May 2025 06:53:09
Quite right both of you.
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
31 May 2025 09:08:34
Nathan Rao getting over-excited?

UK weather: Britain to be blasted with 'torrential deluge of giant hailstones' and heavy downpours in Atlantic storm clash

https://www.gbnews.com/weather/uk-weather-giant-hailstones-heavy-rain-atlantic-storm-weekend-forecast-may-29 

And, interestingly, just a bit further down the page, two 'vignettes' side by side with these headlines:

UK weather: 'Flaming June' to send mercury soaring as Britain 'just 10 days away' from 30C blast

UK weather: Raging jet stream to unleash back-to-back rain storms in June washout


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

TheJudge
20 June 2025 05:59:04

Was not quite sure where to put this link, but an interesting read from the BBC about AI forecasting, not the biggest fan of the BBC but still worth a read….

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cwy6ykp7049o 


Barby 551 ft above sea level
Brian Gaze
20 June 2025 20:54:53

There was a good read between the lines in this piece yesterday. I know questions about which model/s the Beeb  / MeteoGroup use in their forecasts are asked from time to time. The article below provides part of the answer.

Tech giants unleash AI on weather forecasts: are they any good?

....

The highest resolution model from the Met Office, the UKV (the model that runs BBC TV graphics for the first 48 hours) can predict showers with its incredible 1.5km (0.9 mile) resolution

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cwy6ykp7049o 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gandalf The White
20 June 2025 23:11:52

There was a good read between the lines in this piece yesterday. I know questions about which model/s the Beeb  / MeteoGroup use in their forecasts are asked from time to time. The article below provides part of the answer.

Tech giants unleash AI on weather forecasts: are they any good?

....

The highest resolution model from the Met Office, the UKV (the model that runs BBC TV graphics for the first 48 hours) can predict showers with its incredible 1.5km (0.9 mile) resolution

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cwy6ykp7049o 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Why are mountain ranges in the models lower than in real life?  That seems very strange.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Retron
21 June 2025 16:04:11
Not for the first time, the person who wrote the text forecast on the MetO site hasn't checked the automated output!

For the SE, we have:

Sunday:

Sunny start then cloud will increase, but still bright or sunny spells will occur. Becoming breezy but also very warm or locally hot, with the highest temperatures in the east. Maximum temperature 27 °C.

...and the automated has 29 for Leysdown...

Which will be right, I wonder? Hopefully not the automated!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys.jpg 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
21 June 2025 16:12:24

Why are mountain ranges in the models lower than in real life?  That seems very strange.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I would assume it is because of the resolution - the model will take an average height of each square of ground, which will miss the highest peaks. eg an area of high ground with an average height of 500 metres might contain a peak much higher than that, as well as valleys much lower.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Crepuscular Ray
26 June 2025 17:24:01

Watching the BBC news just now. Yellow and Amber Heat warnings out from tomorrow up to Tuesday. Hot at Glastonbury and could be the hottest start to Wimbledon. 

Meanwhile, I'm getting ready for a weekend walking in the central fells near Ambleside. Thick Socks, walking trousers, fleece and waterproof 😂😂


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Rob K
03 July 2025 11:45:39

The Met Office have released a long-range forecast from the future (it's currently not even 1300BST!)

Friday 18 Jul - Friday 1 Aug

Changeable conditions with a predominantly northwest to southeast split in temperature and rainfall, and the potential for further occasional episodes of hot weather and thundery outbreaks, are considered likely to gradually give way to something more settled and dry overall through the second half of July. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the greatest chance of very warm or hot spells in the south or southeast.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 3 Jul 2025

This thread seems to have been all but abandoned recently. Thought I'd resurrect it with a rather summery looking forecast.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
08 July 2025 08:41:58

Good piece on the BBC:

Third heatwave coming to the UK could be longest of the year so far

The UK's third heatwave of the summer is forecast to arrive later this week and it could be the most widespread and sustained so far.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cx2jdg56gedo 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

tallyho_83
09 July 2025 20:05:08
Interesting read about the Stratospheric polar vortex for winter 2025/2026 and makes sense for it to be weaker if we slip into a La Nina combined with easterly QBO but been here before so not falling for it but worth a read....

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-weak-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-winter-2025-2026-fa/ 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

warrenb
30 July 2025 11:29:28

Looks like the BBC are back in partnership with the Meto again after their brief partnership with MeteoGroup

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/corporate-news/2025/partnership-annoucement 


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 July 2025 12:18:07

Looks like the BBC are back in partnership with the Meto again after their brief partnership with MeteoGroup

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/corporate-news/2025/partnership-annoucement 

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

According to Google, it's the BBC itself who employs the weather presenters so don't expect new faces.

I wonder if the change in technology supplier that they will have to work with will make their presentations look different?


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

White Meadows
30 July 2025 20:49:01

Yep, the Beeb have confirmed we’re going back to the good ol’ days:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crm4z8mple3o 

Not sure it’ll make the licence fee worth paying for though. 

westv
30 July 2025 22:02:19

According to Google, it's the BBC itself who employs the weather presenters so don't expect new faces.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

They used to be Met Office employees so civil servants.


Big heat in May

Summer will be spray.

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
31 July 2025 15:07:14
Latest Met Office contingency forecast is going for a shift from dry and very warm early on, to wetter and windier but still warm as we get deeper into autumn. They point to more influence from low pressure and westerlies - you could argue that is the default autumnal behaviour. Will we get our regular settled period in September? 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/index 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 August 2025 06:14:04

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy1epz58pyo 

Carol Kirkwood reviewing the current state of forecasting - weather followers will know most of it already


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
06 August 2025 06:34:13

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy1epz58pyo

Carol Kirkwood reviewing the current state of forecasting - weather followers will know most of it already

Originally Posted by: DEW 

It's a decent article but there are some parts I disagree with. Saying that forecasting technology has "improved beyond all recognition" in the last few decades is at best debatable. The improvements have been steady and incremental, leading to a substantial improvement. 

Also, the suggestion that model resolution is a key limitation is questionable. For example, most people at this time of the year will be less bothered by the temperature being a degree or two higher or lower than the model forecast, than by whether it rains or stays dry. The UKV model, referenced in the article, is known to have precipitation issues (as are others) which aren't necessarily caused by its resolution. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Brian Gaze
08 September 2025 20:42:22

Not sure if this has been posted before. Well worth watching IMO. 

A Change in the Weather


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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