I think definitely worth bumping this thread back towards the top with current developments in Australia.
We currently have a tropical cyclone called Alfred sitting off the SE corner of Queensland and crossing into northern NSW. While it is not unprecedented for a TC to be so far south it is highly unusual. The last TC direct hit in the Brisbane area / NSW was back in 1954 by an unnamed TC as no naming then perhaps. There were TC VERY close to the SE QLD coast and NSW in 1974 and 1990 but I understand that this will be the first crossing since the 50’s.
Alfred is currently sitting as a cat2 cyclone and is expected to make landfall as such….although the BOM are not entirely ruling out an intensification to cat3 as some unusual warm waters. The Tasman sea up the east coast of Australia has been unusually warm for a while now, usually a TC would be very hard to sustain so far south.
Why is this so bad…well….cyclones of greater strength TC’s will hit far North Queensland, Northern Territory and northern WA most years but following the cyclone Tracy disaster in 1975 infrastructure over the top end is much more better equipped to sustain them and the natural environment is also kind of better adapted of course being in the monsoon region, flooding rains are common every year. However, SE Queensland containing one of the biggest cities in Australia and NSW just aren’t as well prepared for cyclones, making this more dangerous.
For example in SE QLD you have these canal estates that are homes basically build like Venice, you drive way is a man made sea inlet and these could be at major risk from a storm surge.
Landfall is due maybe around Friday and I just don’t know how bad this will be but the potential is there for it to be a major news breaking event worldwide…..or maybe not….maybe they will get lucky and not as bad as expected. Right now…it looks bad.