Not a particularly interesting run although in the exceedingly unlikely event it verified it does have a snow event IMBY at T300ish (Also for parts of Scotland and Northern England around T260). Outside of that it's chilly and settling down in the near term, staying chilly at the surface as the uppers gradually warm and then generally fairly chilly in the medium to long term, aside from a day or two of milder 850s. A decent run for the Scottish mountains I'd say, balanced by more in the way of milder weather the further South you head. 

There's definitely a signal for HP to end up over the near continent in the models at the moment but so far it's only there for a day or two and may or may not drag up any noticeably mild air before it slinks off.  The theme on many of the ops is one of fairly average weather for the most part - unsettled, often cool and some snow for the hills and mountains further North as you'd expect in December.  There's plenty of mild options in the ens as you move deeper into FI if that's your bag, sadly you have to squint a bit harder for any runs bringing in decent levels of cold. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/26/20778/gfs_0_384yuo2.png 

GFS Op 0z - HP over Scotland up to 1040mb and LP near the Med generate E-lies for the south until Fri 13th. After a couple of days of adjustment, the weather becomes zonal W-ly, weak ridges and troughs crossing Britain until Thu 19th when deeper LP moves from the NW 975mb Orkney (but not as stormy as shown yesterday). This ushers in a spell of N-lies which entrain LP 990mb Irish Sea Mon 23rd, slowly crossing Britain through Christmas Day. Christmas Day indication - rather cold and unsettled.

ECM - similar to GFS but during the zonal period shows HP over France stronger and LP further north so weather is more settled. 

GEM - more like ECM but final chart Wed 18th shows LP gathering strength in Biscay

GEFS - in the S temps up and down a little but mostly a little on the cold side of norm until Wed 25th, dry until Mon 16th when chances of rain in many but not all runs. In Scotland similar but milder to start with always subject (as Dr Mog pointed out yesterday) to surface level frost and fog. from inversions Snow row figures for Christmas Day 11/33 for Inverness, 2 to 5/33 elsewhere. 

The charts have potential.  They are definitely not stuck with mild southerly euro HP blocks.  Theres actually quite alot of cold air nearby.

We are poised for a decent week or so of model watching i reckon.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Shame its 8c 

You couldnt make it up

You don't have to make it up because it is reality. Average is the way I would describe the coming week or 2. Some dry days, some wet days, temps 7-8c during the day and 1-2c at night with the occasional frost in periods between lows.

Looking at the charts in general and the GFS 06z ensemble suite for this area I’d say this week will be rather cold (2c below average).  The Week 2 mean continues the below average theme.  Nothing especially cold, but I would say ‘on the chilly side of seasonal’.

An easterly or north-easterly or even a northerly has never delivered cold weather when there’s nothing cold to tap into.

looks potentially stormy and wet. Not even getting the euroslug to help shield us down here. If its going to be another snow free winter down here I'd rather be mild and dry than wet, flooded and cold 

Things become uncertain from mod-month.  However, I'd probably go with above average temps in the CET zone with the possibility of another stormy spell before Christmas.

Close but likely to flatten, almost good for Xmas!

Scandi high almost could be 1970 for Xmas 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=252&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 

That projection you use makes the cold upper low look much further away than on other sites. 😁

It's nice to see a bubble inflate over Scandinavia, but note the direction of travel - it's essentially an offshoot of the Azores High and it carries on its merry way. The classic Scandinavian High scenario would involve a ridge moving in the opposite direction instead, forcing Atlantic lows to divert far to the south - quite different from the way the 12z GFS sets things up.

One of the many things I look out for is the Azores High withdrawing west - to its alter-ego, the Bermuda High. As long as it's lurking close to the Azores it's all but impossible to get sustained deep cold here.

Nonetheless, at least it's not raging Atlantic zonality... makes a change!

Have a look at P25 and P28, one a northerly that brings a cold HP over us for Xmas Day, and the other a cold easterly, with some wintry flurries to the east.

That Azores Bermuda high causes a almost permanent Nor Easter in cape verde.  Very refreshing all year round.

Keeping me inspired is the high pressure dominated December and stormy after Christmas theme that met office completely mixed up. Another contingency planners on the scrap heap there.