I still want ECM to tone down the Atlantic and get on board.

Wind warning for Wednesday updated at 10:57am - area covered reduced to England and Wales south of Birmingham and timing brought forward a little. Still yellow.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2025-01-01 

Will it, won’t it… like others have discussed it will be a fascinating litmus test to see whether ECM or its younger, smarter, better looking cousin with AI wins the trust of the model watchers. 

EC is out on a limb to some extent. Its suite certainly looks the messiest today. 

An interesting mention there of a squally front passing through, which matches the traditional passage of a cold front: a brief, sharp rise in gusts followed by a swift return to much quieter conditions. We've not seen one of those for a while down here, with the last two windy episodes instead being prolonged warm-sector events, with the eventual cold (or rather occluded) front not being noticeable in terms of wind.

EDIT: And we have an amber rain warning over parts of Scotland, too. No mention of naming the storm though...

But it’s for rain:

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-12-31&id=f108d72a-6f83-4fab-87a6-d61986c4cfbc 

Except it wasn't just GFS - and it was showing on multiple runs. The track was still TBC, but variations on the theme - a low moving across the southern half of UK on NYD - was almost across the board for a number of runs across multiple days.

Yes, they're not great. The EPS suite performed a massive flip overnight, with the median (not mean) noon temperature here on Sunday going from 3C (0z yesterday) to 4.5C (12z) to 11C this morning. And that's a very certain 11C as far as it's concerned, too, with the top 50% being squidged in between 11 and 12.

Hopefully it's confidently wrong, and the evidence from the other models suggests it may well be.

Incidentally the AIFS has ensembles too, and they can be seen in meteogram form here:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202412300000&epsgram=aifs_classical_10d&lat=51.3973&lon=0.921564&station_name=Leysdown-on-Sea 

(Type in your own town, like the main ensembles it has points all over the place).

The AIFS has a median of 6C on Sunday, with the op towards the bottom at 2C. A remarkable difference between the two suites, and I would wager the AIFS will be closer to the mark (again, given the other models).

Keeps the NYD snow for here (in fact, brings it forwards to the afternoon!)

GFS always the one to overplay it. The ringleader in the daft OTT dartboard lows, you should know that by now.