Yes, that’s how I understand it.

This is the most recent (and rather technical) review I can find on the model and its outcomes compared with more “traditional “ methods: 

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.15832 

It is encouraging that the METO have not yet issued a yellow warning here.  Maybe they are just short staffed at this time of year, I would have expected at least a yellow already. 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2024123006/gfs-0-54.png?6 

They issued a yellow yesterday, it covers pretty much all of England and Wales. It will be updated today, no doubt, and there's a moderate chance of an amber for the far SE I'd suggest.

As for the 6z GFS, it at long last weakens the low, turning it into an elongated trough. It remains to be seen how strong the winds are, though, as those higher-res charts aren't quite out yet.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2024123006/gfs-0-60.png?6 

I see. Normally it comes through on my phone, but hasnt this time. 

There are a few knock-on effects. One, the spatial area of strong winds is now much smaller, two, winds now peak in the low 60s rather than the mid to high 70s, and three, it means the loss of much of the snow for our friends in the Midlands north. I'm happy with that, but others' views may vary! 😁

Wednesday evening, from the 0z and then the 6z. The latter has, finally, at long last, caught up with the other models. A cautious "phew" is in order.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/72/14074/69_289UKovf8.GIF 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/15/19702/63_289UKggd0.GIF 

Hard to tell from this, still very windy but hopefully not damaging

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2024123006/gfs-14-60.png?6 

The cancellation was cancelled 😂

No cross-model agreement even for the NYD low let alone the medium term so no conclusions from me yet.

Same here. Just going to go from mild nothingness to chillier nothingness.

EC ens still going with the potentially much milder theme post 240hrs. Last night it showed high pressure dominant; this morning more of a SW to S flow, so nothing really nailed on at all. 

Is that the same BBC that has telling me that tomorrow will be brighter for the last three weeks? But hey, today is the day 😂

It went to the EPS instead, this morning's one having median temperatures on Sunday some 5-8C higher than the previous two runs (down in the south, anyway).

Meanwhile that cautious "phew" from me still stands, but looking through the GEFS there are still a significant number of members keeping the low with its 62+ mph winds, and in some cases well into the 70s. Hopefully it's just yet to catch up with the op and other models.

As for Saint's despondency, look on the bright side - at least up there you still a couple of several minor snow events in the next 7 days (from the 6z op), compared to none whatsoever down here. 😁

Always a good thing which is why we look forward to your daily posts. 😀 I have seen much of Europe sub zero from time to time in the past but only when there has been a "proper" cold spell, so fingers crossed.

Severe cold potentially becoming entrenched across the country after the weekend. Favoured spots north east facing coasts and high ground. Areas further west not best for snow in the type of setup being modelled, obviously. 

Who knows, but that is what it showed. It is unusual, as Darren said, to get two consecutive sets of ensembles to flip that dramatically for shortish term prospects and I said it was even more unusual for them to flip back cold which they have. We have to be objective and comment on what is presented to us and yesterday was milder, with some support. Fact.  Today things are looking better for cold fans. Coldest spell of the winter for the South and most likely everywhere looks reasonably certain with such a low bar.

So the conclusion from those sets of data, given that even two days from now is unclear still, is that we have a very volatile situation!

I started to read that, had no idea what most of it meant and gave up on the first page 🤣😳

In terms of the models, it's nice to see GFS flopping back to cold this morning and the ECM AI sticking to it's cold guns.  The ECM op and ens are as per other comments something of a party pooper this morning, although the op at least maintains the cold for Scotland during the Atlantic incursion and does briefly filter the cold air back over the whole country by 10th Jan before a collapsing HP settles things down possibly maintaining cold air at the surface despite the uppers. I'd also imagine the LPs shown to roll through on the 6th and 9th would bring some decent snowfalls for some even if it's just rain IMBY (Scotland on the 6th, somewhere in the Midlands plus Wales maybe on the 9th).

I'll go with my post from yesterday - it's rare that the models stick solidly to a cold evolution but whilst not always the case they do sometimes seem to go a bit mad when they pick up a spoiling signal, then tone that back down over the next couple of runs. Hopefully that's the case this time and ECM creeps back in line, rather than today being a false dawn followed by a more concerted milder flip this evening.

On the wind front for Wednesday latest GFS looks to be toning down the wind speeds a touch, so hopefully that continues although it still has 60+ crossing the south, which is enough to bring some trees down and cause a few problems. I think it's fairly certain it'll be windy on New Years Day down here, just whether it's windy enough to cause more than a few issues is still TBC. 

#Will see how the rest pans out...

I was just putting together my own forecast for Facebook when I noticed how GFS dropped the peak gusts from 81 mph to a more forgiving 64 mph - more or less in line with other models. Will still be a very windy day on the whole with 50 mph gusts but that's manageable stuff in my book, although I'll mention 70 mph gust at exposed areas by the evening in my forecast just to cover my backside. 🤣

Beyond that, then perhaps I might show some interest with the colder air being in place by then, I wouldn't rule out a significant transitional snow-to-rain event somewhere over the UK as Atlantic air try to push away cold air later on down the line. It's still not exactly the most favourite winter set up, though, but until then I'll take the cold but dry and bright conditions in the latter half of this week and hopefully into the weekend.