Outlook suddenly looking awful for cold after the usual models brimming with potential.....dont think Brian's winter forcast will be far off.....

The EC, in isolation, isn't showing anything particularly mild over the next couple of weeks either. All about average really. 

I'm one of those who will be more than happy with calm and cold, seasonal weather. If we should happen upon some snow then that would be wonderful too but it's not the be all and end all. At least it's not looking mild for the rest of next week, for me, so far.

Perhaps it's still too early in the season for it, wonder how it'll turn out if it is late January or early February.

Air masses don't really follow the isobar flow though. That high is just an extension of the Azores high with a tropical Atlantic maritime air mass meandering around beneath it. A cut off high centered over southern Scandinavia or western Russia would be better for pushing in some real Continental cold. 🥶

The sinewave-tastic GEFS shows that the popular Christmas song, "Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Zonal all the Way" will probably be heard yet again. It'd be nice to change the record!

While it's interesting to see rather more runs approaching -10 than is normal, it's still not the sort of pattern that would bring deep cold. As Chunky says, though that Fax chart shows a superficially appealing NE'ly flow over England and Wales, it's an Azores high rather than an extension of the Siberian high - that latter one, with a ridge over Scandinavia, is what's needed for a traditional snowy winter spell down here.

Mind you, given the pummelling from Bert and Darragh, the latter of which is of course ongoing, even dull old zonality would be a pleasant change!

(And as it's the model thread, here's one that's not often posted - the extended range ECM metrogram. Here's Reading, and you'll note that the most likely option is average to mild conditions, right the way out to the end of January!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202412070000&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading  )

GFS Op 0z - by Tue 10th HP well established over N Britain 1040mb with E-lies for the south courtesy of the remains of Storm Darragh by then near Corsica (but not cold E-lies; circulation round Darragh sources the air from Turkey). This pattern slowly breaks down by Fri 13th and (unlike yesterday) no reload of HP, instead a new storm (looks as if it is a candidate for naming) 950mb St Kilda Mon 16th with NW-ly gales. This ushers in zonality with LP (980mb Scottish borders Wed 18th) and HP (1035mb France) chasing each other across the Atlantic.

ECM - differs from GFS after Sat 14th with the LP Mon 16th staying well to the north (eventually into Norway) and HP 1030mb English Channel building a ridge NW-wards by Wed 18th. 

GEM - like GFS rather than ECM

GEFS - cool Tue 10th, mild Thu 12th (lasting longer and more marked in Scotland), cool again Sun 15th then little agreement between ens members but mean staying near or a little below norm through to Christmas Eve. Chances of rain increasing after Sun 15th (50% chance of snow at low level in N Scotland so plenty for the hills), also a little in the far S at first. 

The links above are for this location by the coast, further inland it may be more marked.

These situations can play havoc with the automated weather forecasts. This example for Braemar for Wednesday is a bit of an extreme illustration. A 29°C diurnal range? 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/UK/Braemar.htm 

That would actually be very close to a record, but I'm not sure where it is getting that sort of overnight low from! 

Actually although GFS only shows -5 or so, the UKV has some -16C grid points and shading down to -20C on Tuesday morning.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukv/03_43_min_temp.png 

That's a thinned grid. The lowest I can see on the full grid (at a glance) is -19C.

One of the issues in the UK is the paucity of reporting stations, particularly in that region. This was highlighted to me a while ago by a UKM guy whilst discussing the low values shown at times by the Global model. That said, the advice was to put more stock in UKV than the Global model.

From what I can see there are more runs continuing to show a west / northwesterly tilt than has been the case in a number of recent winters. That (IMO) leads to more interesting weather across the board because there's nothing I personally dislike more in the winter months than a fat area of high pressure over Iberia / France sedating the weather over southern Britain. However, snow is likely restricted to the north and mostly over high ground even there.

Joy to the world!

Calls going into the Samaritans already on netweather, though cold rampers seem to be a rare species these days. Everyone seems to have given up, even Steve Murr! 

GFS 06z does have colder more blocked pattern for Xmas week, but probably yet another skirt raising tease that will disappear as runs go by

Doesn't look that way to me?

Indeed, although it also looks ripe for another nasty storm in the southern half of the UK!

That's a new development on the 06z; only the parent depression to the north of Scotland was there when I looked at the 0z first thing this morning

Indeed. I wouldn't place much stock in the 06Z (or any other run for that matter), but the potential for another stormy spell appears to be there IMO.

Looking very mild.   🙂