The Weather Outlook

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warrenb
06 December 2024 13:03:43
Well as predicted events being cancelled all over the place. Thought I might get away with Glow Wisley tomorrow evening, but that has just gone.
Tonbridge 45m 
Ally Pally Snowman
06 December 2024 13:14:15

Well as predicted events being cancelled all over the place. Thought I might get away with Glow Wisley tomorrow evening, but that has just gone.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

The Bishop's Stortford Christmas fair has gone, was due tmrw. Big deal for the people involved.  This will be being repeated all over the country. Just 2 more Saturdays after tmrw before Christmas.  Will be a massive financial impact from Darragh.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Lionel Hutz
06 December 2024 13:19:06

Given that it's only an amber warning, I'm  not sure that it's going to be any worse than what we get a few times a year. That said, any sting that develops would need watching. 

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

This post may not be ageing all that well...Red warnings now along Ireland's west coast and amber warnings across the whole island. 

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Saint Snow
06 December 2024 13:28:38

The Bishop's Stortford Christmas fair has gone, was due tmrw. Big deal for the people involved.  This will be being repeated all over the country. Just 2 more Saturdays after tmrw before Christmas.  Will be a massive financial impact from Darragh.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

It's so sad to see. As someone made the point the other day, for the past while all the worst weather has hit at weekends.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

+1
Saint Snow
06 December 2024 13:31:36

Met Office App has ramped up a notch further.

Highest sustained windspeed that I can find is Yr Wydffa summit - 99mph!! With gusts to 109

For lowland sites Holyhead has a sustained of 63mph with gusts to 90mph.

For me I've a sustained of 39mph and gusts to 75mph. 

I'd say that's about 10 - 15mph above a 'regular' winter storm.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

That's mad.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
06 December 2024 13:34:14

For Storm Eunice in Feb 2022 we were under a red warning - I have a screen shot of the BBC weather app showing gusts of up to 93mph which is the highest I've ever seen. Although we are in a relatively exposed coastal location there wasn't any damage to our property, which was probably helped by having hedges and not panel fences and also taking down the trampoline's safety netting!

Originally Posted by: overland 

We were in the Lakes a few weeks after Eunice, and it was a scene of carnage

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Chunky Pea
06 December 2024 13:53:59

Given that it's only an amber warning, I'm  not sure that it's going to be any worse than what we get a few times a year. That said, any sting that develops would need watching. 

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

No doubt we've seen worse; more just noting how rapidly the winds will increase. UKMO, one of the better models for wind speed prediction, is going for 62 knot gust speeds for my location tonight, which is well inland. Those living on exposed coasts are in for a ride with this one I think. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Fargo
06 December 2024 14:51:39

Met Office App has ramped up a notch further.

Highest sustained windspeed that I can find is Yr Wydffa summit - 99mph!! With gusts to 109

For lowland sites Holyhead has a sustained of 63mph with gusts to 90mph.

For me I've a sustained of 39mph and gusts to 75mph. 

I'd say that's about 10 - 15mph above a 'regular' winter storm.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

Aberdaron on the Llŷn Peninsula projected slightly higher gusts (91, 92, 91, 90), although it is ridiculously exposed there and perpetually windy. 

West Oxfordshire 230m asl
+1
Bolty
06 December 2024 14:58:38
Yes, this is looking a bit like a repeat of Storm Eunice. Not good at all, and it's certainly going to do some damage. As other's have mentioned, it's going to affect the Christmas shopping season... not to mentioned a lot of homes have their decorations outside now too.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

+1
Saint Snow
06 December 2024 15:33:40

Yes, this is looking a bit like a repeat of Storm Eunice. Not good at all, and it's certainly going to do some damage. As other's have mentioned, it's going to affect the Christmas shopping season... not to mentioned a lot of homes have their decorations outside now too.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

We've just brought a couple inside.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

+1
Chunky Pea
06 December 2024 16:16:54
Freaky yellow/orange 'glow' here now. Like looking through coloured plastic. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Saint Snow
06 December 2024 16:19:30

Met Office App has ramped up a notch further.

Highest sustained windspeed that I can find is Yr Wydffa summit - 99mph!! With gusts to 109

For lowland sites Holyhead has a sustained of 63mph with gusts to 90mph.

For me I've a sustained of 39mph and gusts to 75mph. 

I'd say that's about 10 - 15mph above a 'regular' winter storm.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

And now another little notch...

At 15.00, wind is forecast to be 100/110

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Brian Gaze
06 December 2024 16:42:10
At a glance it looks as though Arpege 12Z has dialled down max gust speeds in parts of the UK 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=9&chartname=ukwindvector_gust&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Wind%20gust 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Retron
06 December 2024 16:56:28
Both the 12z GFS and latest MetO raw have ticked up in terms of winds down here - just as I was hoping we'd escape the unpleasantly strong stuff (i.e. hours on end of 50+ gusts). Just goes to show even at this late stage little tweaks in track/intensity are still occuring, and they mean the difference between just a windy day and a few trees down etc.

Of course further west it's a different story - buckle up everyone, it's going to be an unplesant ride over the next 48 hours!

Leysdown, north Kent
StoneCroze
06 December 2024 16:58:30
All flights locally already cancelled tomorrow. 
Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
Retron
06 December 2024 16:58:59

And now another little notch...

At 15.00, wind is forecast to be 100/110

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

102/112 now. Utterly insane, and unimaginable quite frankly! The "strongest UK winds I've ever seen on the MetO raw" record has gone several times today...

EDIT: For posterity!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/snowdon2.jpg 

UserPostedImage

Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
06 December 2024 17:03:30

At a glance it looks as though Arpege 12Z has dialled down max gust speeds in parts of the UK 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=9&chartname=ukwindvector_gust&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Wind%20gust 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I'd like that to come off - doesn't even reach 50 here, versus 12 hours on GFS (peak 58) and 11 with MetO raw (peak 54). Of course Arpege yesterday was showing widespread 70+ for London and the SE, so it's flipped a fair bit!

I still take note of it, mind you, the legacy of it getting it right in 1987 whereas the MetO model didn't...

Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
06 December 2024 17:08:17
I wonder if the raw data output, had it existed at the time, would have “forecast” Fraserburgh’s 142 mph gust in Feb 1989. Snowdon’s forecast wind speeds are quite remarkable and I hope no one ventures there to find out what it feels like.

Here, while it will be very windy, I wonder if the rain will also be a problem.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

overland
06 December 2024 17:10:18

And now another little notch...

At 15.00, wind is forecast to be 100/110

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I assume the relatively small variation between gusts and sustained wind speeds is simply due to the lack of obstructions at that height?

Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
Retron
06 December 2024 17:23:35

I assume the relatively small variation between gusts and sustained wind speeds is simply due to the lack of obstructions at that height?

Originally Posted by: overland 

I'd have thought so, but then that doesn't explain the massive gust ratio on coastal locations in the SW - as there won't be much to perturb the onshore winds either. Or maybe Ireland, despite being 150 or more miles away from Cornwall, still manages to have an effect!

Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Rob K
06 December 2024 17:33:12
Despite temperatures being fairly average tomorrow, the "feels like" temperature is around -10ºC through the middle of the day tomorrow in the south west.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

roadrunnerajn
06 December 2024 17:41:57
I think I’ll be spending Sunday afternoon picking up all the Welch Christmas decorations….
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
Chunky Pea
06 December 2024 17:59:07
UKMO model is upping my location gust potential up to 66 knots, which is about 74 mph. Given that I'm quite sheltered, the likes of Donegal, northern Mayo and Derry etc are in for a wild ride later. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Brian Gaze
06 December 2024 18:09:01
UKV showing 104mph gusts on the Welsh coast.

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gandalf The White
06 December 2024 18:11:51

All flights locally already cancelled tomorrow. 

Originally Posted by: StoneCroze 

I’m sure there will be issues at most airports tomorrow and into Sunday morning. The south-westerly gales are bad enough, but runways tend to aligned broadly E-W or ENE-WSW, but when we get the northerly blow it will be another matter.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



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