The Weather Outlook

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Gandalf The White
06 December 2024 00:12:20
The Alaro 18z run, which only covers the UK from east Lincs down to Sussex, has gusts for my area up to 70mph on Saturday morning. Then when the LP pulls away into the North Sea overnight into Sunday there are gusts up to 75-80 along the North Norfolk coast and then the exposed parts of the north Kent coast.

We’re quite exposed here and it’s not going to make for a quiet 24-36 hours.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Lionel Hutz
06 December 2024 00:13:17

Think for me this is going to hit in a split instant. From near calm to fully on wild in seconds. Remember something like this in this happening back in Jan or Feb 2014.  It is in these sort of times that I miss my Davis anemometer to measure this sort of stuff. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Given that it's only an amber warning, I'm  not sure that it's going to be any worse than what we get a few times a year. That said, any sting that develops would need watching. 


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Retron
06 December 2024 06:12:29

Latest update unbelievably ramps it further!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

And this morning? Briefly cat 2 hurricane strength winds! I can't say I've *ever* seen such strong winds forecast for the UK.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/snowdon.jpg 

Elsewhere there's not much change from yesterday - still looking very windy for most of us, and dangerously so in that amber warning area (e.g. Bude is still showing several hours of 80+ gusts). Hunker down folks!

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Fargo
06 December 2024 06:35:23
Surely a red warning necessary now for Pembrokeshire (and others) - gusts in excess of 80mph for several hours, even a good deal inland in areas with lots of trees and waterlogged ground. Crackers.
West Oxfordshire 230m asl
roadrunnerajn
06 December 2024 07:17:22
The quiet before the storm this morning… not a breath of wind.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 December 2024 07:48:49
It's been noticeable how the forecast intensity for Darragh has increased over time. I first picked it up on the daily look at the charts 28th Nov. But at that stage it was a tame pussycat, just 2 or so isobars deep, moving along the Channel and not appearing in every model run. See posts #206 (absent) and #225 (first noted) in this thread
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

lanky
06 December 2024 08:15:46

It's been noticeable how the forecast intensity for Darragh has increased over time. I first picked it up on the daily look at the charts 28th Nov. But at that stage it was a tame pussycat, just 2 or so isobars deep, moving along the Channel and not appearing in every model run. See posts #206 (absent) and #225 (first noted) in this thread

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Yes it's not an exceptionally low central pressure to cause such disruption. It looks to be around 980mb as compared to the 1987 and 1990 storms where the lowest pressure was around 955mb.

It seems to me to be equally about the strong anticyclonic development in mid Atlantic of around 1045mb that is accentuating the pressure gradient E-W across the UK


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

roadrunnerajn
06 December 2024 08:28:31
The 10 day outlook by the met office on YouTube yesterday mentioned that the high pressure to the west is the main reason for the intensity of the forecast winds. He said the high will be almost forcing its way in. 


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
StoneCroze
06 December 2024 08:37:58
Hm, local forecast going for severe gale F9, possibly storm F10 with gusts to 70 Kts tomorrow afternoon. The longevity of these winds are going to cause problems. 

Not looking forward to this as I'm about 100 yards from the sea facing North. 

Time to secure things down properly outside and get the chainsaws sharpened.   


Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
Saint Snow
06 December 2024 09:22:14

The quiet before the storm this morning… not a breath of wind.

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 

Was thinking the exact same thing.

It's perfectly still and not a cloud in the sky. Yet roll on a few hours and we're forecast to be getting 40+ mph gusts by the end of the afternoon, and this time tomorrow 30mph sustained winds with gusts up tot 64mph.

There's still uncertainty over the exact track of this system and how potent the winds will be. Arpege has lowered the peak wind gusts; so has GFS, which also limits the badly-hit area to W & SW Wales. Yet the Met Office model keeps the damagingly stronger waves from yesterday and also expands the area that these impact.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Matty H
06 December 2024 09:25:14
MetO and BBC Weather apps going for gusts to high 50s here, which whilst unpleasant, wouldn’t be that unusual from a winter storm here. Winds from the NW/N are a better option for my backyard fences too, as my backyard is South-facing
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Brian Gaze
06 December 2024 09:31:20
This morning's MOGREPS update dials down the gust speeds likely in the south east. Hope this is right.

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

scillydave
06 December 2024 09:51:58
Unsurprisingly Red warnings have now been issued for Western coastal areas.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Gavin D
06 December 2024 10:03:29
Saint Snow
06 December 2024 10:04:29
Met Office are backing their model, which now has, as far as I can see, the strongest winds (both sustained and gusts) - and has increased from yesterday.

For reference, here's the forecast for the summit of Snowdon at 9.00am now:

Sustained Wind Speed: 95mph

Wind Gust Speed: 105mph

Temp: -1c

With windchill: -13c

Conditions - Heavy Snow

Holyhead's peak winds now forecast at 60/91


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Roger Parsons
06 December 2024 10:23:19

Red warning issued for parts of Wales and South West England

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-12-07&id=741dabc8-ad97-476a-bd24-1683cea8198b 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

BBC's take:

"The Met Office has issued a rare red weather warning for wind, as Storm Darragh approaches. The warning is in place from 03:00 to 11:00 GMT on Saturday, covering western and southern coastal regions of Wales as well as the Bristol Channel in England."

Rare red wind warning issued as Storm Darragh approaches

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2dxlwz219ko 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

nsrobins
06 December 2024 10:40:17
As expected localised RED issued. Expect extension of Amber in the next hour.

Batten down people.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Saint Snow
06 December 2024 11:04:45
MBY forecast to have 60+mph gusts from 7.00am to 4.00pm (and 50+mph gusts from 5.00am to the following midnight)

I'm a good 10-15 miles inland

Really disappointing that the snow risk as the system pulls away has all but disappeared (well, not disappeared; because the track of the storm isn't now predicted to turn southwards until well clear of the UK, it's still too far north as it crosses the island, so the snow risk is kept well north, for Scotland.

Worst of both worlds for me - the strongest winds hit this region instead of further south, and we lose the snow risk


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 December 2024 11:22:10
We’re still under the yellow warning band for wind on Saturday at the moment.  Our annual Christmas market for Saturday was cancelled yesterday.  We’re supposed to be doing the Elf steam train experience with our granddaughter tomorrow near Barnsley but as yet, we haven’t heard whether it’s going ahead.  I expect it to be cancelled and won’t be too disappointed, given the filthy weather forecast.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Saint Snow
06 December 2024 11:57:53
Some flakes blowing around at the Nevis base station

https://www.nevisrange.co.uk/webcams/ 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

ARTzeman
06 December 2024 11:59:45
Do Not Like the idea of being in a RED BAND Warning area. Never been in one before.

Bad enough having all the Strong Winds being on a hillside....




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Retron
06 December 2024 12:06:17

Do Not Like the idea of being in a RED BAND Warning area. Never been in one before.

Bad enough having all the Strong Winds being on a hillside....

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

The rules here in Kent for them are that if it's a snow red warning you get a few flakes of sleet, or nothing at all, but if it's wind you get trees down, tiles off, fences and neighbourhood trampolines blowing all over the place.

Stay safe!


Leysdown, north Kent
scillydave
06 December 2024 12:09:42
Met Office App has ramped up a notch further.

Highest sustained windspeed that I can find is Yr Wydffa summit - 99mph!! With gusts to 109

For lowland sites Holyhead has a sustained of 63mph with gusts to 90mph.

For me I've a sustained of 39mph and gusts to 75mph. 

I'd say that's about 10 - 15mph above a 'regular' winter storm.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

overland
06 December 2024 12:12:58
For Storm Eunice in Feb 2022 we were under a red warning - I have a screen shot of the BBC weather app showing gusts of up to 93mph which is the highest I've ever seen. Although we are in a relatively exposed coastal location there wasn't any damage to our property, which was probably helped by having hedges and not panel fences and also taking down the trampoline's safety netting!
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
idj20
06 December 2024 13:00:40
As far as my back yard is concerned, at least the worst of it are not the usual in-your-face southerlies (just the first few hours late tonight), I tend to be the most sheltered from west and north west winds. Also rainfall amounts are looking scant along Southern England. Saving graces and all that.


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.

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