EDIT - now I've checked the models, he must have been looking at the GFS Op and ignoring everything else.

Basically saying that I quote " A solar maximum can override the usual stabilising effect that a westerly QBO has on the Polar vortex."

https://watchers.news/2024/10/15/early-snow-cover-patterns-point-to-polar-vortex-disruption-signaling-harsh-winter-ahead-across-north-america-and-europe/ 

Ahh, reminds me of the good old days of the OPI.

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/81494-october-pattern-index-opi-monitoring-winter-season-2014-2015/ 

Whatever happened to that? Oh yes, it was a load of rubbish. Sounded good though!

(We get these sorts of articles every year, of course, and one day through pure luck rather than skill they may end up being right. It's comforting in a way, though, that despite several orders of magnitude of improvements in computational power over the past few decades, we still can't really do seasonal forecasting with any great accuracy. I doubt we ever will in my lifetime, TBH!)

I know - We had an easterly QBO last winter and despite that along with early snowfall in Scandinavia we still didn't pull off anything colder. I wonder if the incredibly wet autumn we are having now will have any impact on our winters weather, as it has been a while since we have seen a wetter than average autumn.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t13687-OCTOBER-PATTERN-INDEX--OPI--MONITORING-WINTER-SEASON-2014-2015/page1 

Last November has been VERY wet at this end, it rained practically every day including 75 mm in just one day alone. 

I remember that set of posts in here and on NW about the October Pattern Index.  Some Italian researchers were attempting to correlate the degree of "non circularity" (or some arcane math function !) of the 500mb pressure pattern in the NH in October with the weakness of the Arctic Oscillation in the following winter on the premise that a weak AO generally leads to a colder winter in the NH as polar air tends to leak out more

They boasted a r value of about 0.9 IIRC between their OPI and the following AOI using a few years of historical data but they managed to prove that correlation is not causation when the following winter failed the test and the whole project seemed to disappear without a trace

As Retron says, even  with the huge increases in computing power and data availability, no-one has ever come up with a seasonal predictor that actually works 100%. Given the number of feedback loops and feedback of the feedback ad infinitum, perhaps it is an impossible objective as it is in effect down to chance. OTOH, the weather often does follow long periods of "sameness"  such as winters like 1963, 1979, or summers like 1976 or 2018 so it is not just switching wildly from type to type every day. Some higher level controlling events must be at play somewhere so I am still interested in initiatives like the OPI even when they always seem to end up doomed to failure

Indeed - it's relatively easy to spot patterns and commonalities with the weather of the past. It's the foresight to be able to say when these patterns and commonalities will repeat themselves that is the issue even though we know they likely will.

Monday 18 Nov - Wednesday 27 Nov

Frequent wintry showers are expected, mainly in the north and along eastern and western coasts where exposed to the strong north to northwesterly flow. Snow is likely to fall to low levels, especially in the north. Many inland areas may be largely dry with lengthy sunny spells, especially where sheltered from the flow. However, there is a risk of some more organised areas of rain and hill snow running east across more southern parts. The chance of any widespread or disruptive snowfall affecting more populated areas at this stage remains low though. Cold everywhere with overnight frost, and the strong winds will result in significant wind chill. There is a hint that it may become less cold later in the period, with more of a westerly flow becoming established.

Tuesday 19 Nov - Thursday 28 Nov

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to affect most if not all parts of the UK early in this period, with wintry showers affecting in particular northern parts and exposed coastal districts. Overnight frost will likely be widespread and occasionally strong winds will result in significant wind chill. However, there may be more organised areas of rain and snow, accompanied by strong winds, which run across some parts. This could lead to some disruptive weather at times, especially at the start of this period. Briefly milder conditions may accompany these in the south. There is a hint that it may become less cold late in the period, but still likely remain mostly unsettled with further spells of rain and snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/a-cold-and-wintry-spell-is-on-the-way 

Cairngorms 

Meanwhile here it looks mixed but I’d be surprised to see snow even half the frequency that is forecast here .

https://firewoodfund.co.uk/winter-2024-predictions-uk/#:~:text=As%20the%20UK%20heads%20towards,winter%20than%20in%20recent%20years. 

Milder wetter and stormier than normal 

More likely to correct when they go mild.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/index 

Many things are “horrific”, a mild winter is not one unless it accompanied by damaging wet and windy weather (which is rather hard to forecast across an entire season!)

Yes, although the forecast does say a windy winter is 80% more likely and since December is predicted to be slightly calmer than normal it suggests something over 100% for February and March.  As you say, mild is good for heating bills, but another wet winter I could do without.

They're giving the chance of a cold season as 5%. I know these forecasts are data driven and imply objectivity. However, I seriously doubt they would ever go below 5% for a given scenario over a 3-month period.

In reality, it's not a 3 month outlook, because it updates every month.

However when they go totally mild,I'm concerned. 

Well, except the forecast is for December to be the odd one out, given the overall seasonal prediction.

As for it not being a 3-month outlook, it clearly is!   The fact that it updates every month isn’t relevant; if you used that logic then the daily weather forecasts aren’t really daily weather forecasts because they update several times a day…. 🙂