May certainly had a number of warm/very warm days here throughout the month as it did across the country, but neither March or April produced any especially warm days for the time of year in my neck of the woods unlike a number of years in the past couple of decades. Temperatures during March for most of the time were only slightly above average at the most with predominantly unsettled weather, and April only warmed up to any real extent after mid-month when the weather improved somewhat after the dreadful first couple of weeks. In respect of March and April, it was almost certainly higher nightime temperatures which were instrumental in keeping CET figures up during those months along with the very warm daytime temperatures during May.

Not so. I've posted this before and will continue to do so whenever people say it wasn't a very warm spring, maxima wise!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

There were only two periods in spring where maxima weren't above, or much above average - the 2nd half of April, and the 2nd half of May. Note how often we were in the top 10% ever recorded... and compare that with the fact that no days entered the bottom 10%.

I know it's about as reliable a Sunak election pledge, but latest CFS doesn't hold much promise for most of July... but does have a generally lovely August 🤣

The worry is that this Omega block pattern can lock for 4 to 6 weeks. Bit like last July😭

 Yes but the second half of April was sufficiently cool/cold to pull the monthly average down to only marginally above average so in these warmer times a notable below average spell. The temperature here this year has only maxed at 24c which again in these warmer times is more unusual.

 The other point to make out regarding the May U.K. average is that Scotland especially the north was well above average, distorting the overall average.

 I will just add this to the mix

https://centrist.co.nz/foi-request-uncovers-major-inaccuracies-in-uk-met-office-temperature-data/ 

Very interesting read about them.  We not stupid that we witnessed a very poor cold to average Spring so no questions, no buts or ifs asked.   This month will also start off well below average from the latest updates but where all the such cold air coming from when Arctic circle are warmer than here at 21C in Lapland?  Either they are undercook the temperatures by up to 5C errors.

All of the UK was above average in May, it’s just that the positive anomaly was larger in Scotland. Each home nation was individually above average too.

As for spring being cool. It wasn’t:

It was however dull and wet which probably skews perceptions a bit.

Back to the future and it still looks cool and showery for the coming days,

 I dont think daytime temps were above average in my location over the whole month.

The lack of accuracy from weather stations is not something to dismiss .

Which WS are inaccurate and based on what evidence? I think your locality (or perhaps just to the west) is about the only one that wasn’t above average in the entire UK for daily maxima in May so that might have skewed your perception of the overall milder than average picture.

Hi Darren, thanks for that. 🙂

Much of what I have described above are my own recollections of the weather during the spring that I observed in my own area. My own memory of the spring on my own area was that unlike the March/April period in numerous recent years, there was an almost complete absence of any notably warm & sunny spells in my own area at any time during those two months (April was a bit warmer later on once the weather improved as I said previously), with the first two weeks of April being the worst spell of spring weather that I can recall in many years with almost winter-like temperatures. May was a different story for much of the time, and I and others have said.

FWIW, I don't in any way disagree that there is a big difference between my recollections of the weather and temperatures I experienced in my own locality throughout the spring, and the season stats for the UK in general terms.

What on earth is going on?

I appreciate it is not uncommon to have spells of cooler weather in June but the longevity of this projected below average spell is is quite concerning especially with The Met Office predicting this to last well into July?

IMBY posts are welcome for this. Here the max was a degree or so below the LTA.

Might need the heating on in the next few days to maintain 19c but that has always been the case in early June.  Could obviously be much nicer and warmer but the current weather and forecast is nothing remarkable , just typical of the variation of weather  you get at this time of year. 

As for the outlook omega block in the wrong place again just like last July.  Could last 3 to 6 weeks. Grim

GFS Op - as previously, LP in Norwegian Sea moving slowly E to Norway but leaving N-lies for Britain to Tue 11th. Brief respite before new LP arrives from the W Thu 13th, settling over NE Scotland 990mb Sat 15th. As this fills, a new trough appears in its circulation, to Wales 1005mb Mon 17th. HP then moves in gradually from the SW and becomes dominant from Fri 21st but always centred SW Ireland 1030mb with NW-lies for much of Britain. Pressure over Europe something of a jumble, but never very high, typical value 1010mb throughout.

ECM - similar to GFS, though the LP is still over N Ireland Sat 15th and the 'new trough' is no more than the old one persisting.

GEM - begins to differ from GFS after 13th, the LP then arriving is shallower but covers all of Britain. This is followed by a deeper LP which however stays out near Rockall from Mon 17th.

GEFS - cool, or in the first week very cool, throughout, only just approaching norm Sun 23rd in the S, a few days earlier in the N, with agreement from most ens members. Small amounts of rain widely in most runs at any time; but drier in the SW at first and some heavier falls for Scotland around Sat 15th.

The next 10 days look guaranteed awful. GFS offers another glimmer day 11. It really does remind me of last July.

The difference was we had a fantastic June. So far this June has been complete and utter turd

We could be a month ahead in the cycle,  we had the warmest ever September with a significant heatwave last year. So maybe August could be a scorcher this year?

This would have been a decent June here if it had only been a bit warmer.

It's been dry until now and our sunshine totals have been a bit better than of late during this month.

However, this month is running cooler than average up until now and because of that, I have to say that until now, this hasn't been much of a summer because in order for me to be able to say otherwise, it needs to be warmer than average.

Looking at the latest model output, I'm still not seeing any signs of any proper summer warmth on the horizon.

Even Spain and Portugal looks set to cool down a bit and given that we often rely on hot air coming from there to deliver any summer heatwaves which we get here in the UK, that isn't exactly boding too well as we're less likely to get that warmth if there isn't going to be much hot air to our immediate south to be able to tap into.

Excellent points there. Loads of forecast models aren't forecasting anything decent. I'm almost prepared to write this summer off already. However,  something could turn up unexpectedly. It's happened before.

Whatever,  I do feel something nice will materialise late September, October.   🙂 

That would just be like the thing of course because by that time, I will then just be wanting to get on with autumn so it will be a bit too late by then in my books.

Having said that, the current pattern isn't actually all that dissimilar to the pattern of June 2013 when high pressure to our west led to a cooler than average month overall.

Yet, we still managed to get a decent summer overall in that year, so you just never know what might happen.

For that reason, I'm not completely writing this summer off just yet but we are in completely different times now, so just because something happened in 2013 from a similar situation doesn't necessarily mean that the same thing will happen this year as well.

It is almost sounding like a Wilkins Micawber summer. Something better will come along perhaps.

No, don't do that. That's the equivalent of writing off the entire winter after a mild first week of December. And no one ever does that.....