This time of the year we usually look for settled, heatwaves, plumes and thunderstorms but sadly all about idiot Greenland high that really have to be compulsory effect uk with several degrees below average temps?  Cyprus having a heatwave so why not allowed for some warmth let alone average temps in here.

As you say the heat is there and record breaking heat at that in southern Europe . But getting the right synoptics to pump it up to Blighty seems impossible atm. It's looking pretty dry at least in the South.

GFS Op - LP near Faeroes slow to break up and move to Norway which it does by Mon 10th, in the meantime generating cool W/NW-lies for Britain. A 'blink-and-you've-missed-it' HP is rapidly followed by  a couple of shallow LPs from the Atlantic; 1005mb Scotland Wed 12th, 1005mb again Irish Sea Sat 15th. The latter slowly moves N-wards and a more convincing ridge of HP moves into W Britain from the SW from Wed 19th.

ECM - resembles GFS though the brief HP lasts two days rather than one. Noted that yesterday's 12z kept this HP going but this morning's 00z, like GFS, brings in an Atlantic LP for Sat 15th.

GEM - resembles GFS at first. The 'shallow LPs' appear as a more extensive (and cooler) trough from Iceland which slowly moves away to the NE. HP is nudging in by Sat 15th but remaining some distance west of Ireland, so still cool for most.

GEFS - Temps now down to cool and staying somewhat below norm everywhere until about Thu 13th with quite good agreement of ens members, then a greater spread but still not far from norm for the following week. Dry in the south for week 1, a little rain in the north; then a bit more rain everywhere with one or two runs suggesting heavy falls. Always driest in the SW.

I think much of the reason for the spring being as warm as it turned out to be was the amount of cloud cover for much of the time which stopped temperatures from falling too low at night at any time. I might be wrong, but I don't recall any daily maximum temperature records for the UK being broken at any point in March, April or May.

FWIW, much of the first half of April in my neck of the woods was baltic, as well as wet and miserable.

Only a guess, but maybe that has been something to do with the recent El Nino coming to an end?

Anything properly settled looks to be in the "jam tomorrow" range. Met Office long term forecast doesn't offer much comfort either.  

That is true to a certain extent, but the monthly summary maps show that the daily maxima were also above average for almost the entire UK (over 2.5⁰C above for much of Scotland). Not only that but these anomalies are compared with the milder 91-20 average and not the 61-90 dataset. I'm sure someone will no doubt say something that denies this just to be contrary but the data are readily available.

Hi Michael 🙂

I think the persistence of weather and winds from warmer directions probably had a lot to do with it too. We're in the middle of a cool northwesterly spell at the moment; how many of those did we have at any point during March, April or May? Virtually none that I can recall. Last winter had very little, if any, spells of weather from any northerly directions either as far as I remember.

I was outside not long before typing this post, and I can promise you that it feels as cool here at the moment as it did at any time during the spring, or last winter for that matter.

Nope ‘fraid not. Just a steady rise from 15 degrees to 17c daytime maxes on the south coast which will carry us past summer solstice to month end.

Latest ECM has gone from bad to dogs**t sandwich with a nasty low parked over the UK for next weekend. 

Spot on. As I've said before, the "UK is now in the Med" mindset has really grown over the past 20 years - you see it on here, you see it in the press, you see it on social media.

Heaven forbid we actually get a cold (91-20) summer, for once! They should come along every other year, or just under, on average, but every summer since 2015 has ended up above the 91-20 average.

No sign of that changing down here at least, with the models showing plenty of sunshine, with temperatures at or above average over the coming week... at least according to the new MetO output. The raw GFS has 15/16/16 here for today, tomorrow and Saturday, compared with 19/20/21 for the MetO.

I don't know whether it applies elsewhere in the UK, but for the past month or so the GFS has been absolutely atrocious... it's always underestimated maxima by a degree or two in summer, generally, but it's plumbing new depths at the moment. The other day was a good example: GFS had 18, MetO 22, it ended up as 22.3. A model that's consistently 3 or more degrees out really isn't very good.

Meanwhile, an emerging picture this morning for a potential northerly influence after mid month with a return to wet conditions. 

A couple of points about May, the daytime maxima were also above average and the overall maximum was 27.5°C on the 12th in Surrey. It is on the cool side at the moment and for the coming days for many people but it is also just the very start of the summer.

I know it doesn’t work like this, but I would rather have cooler showery weather at the very beginning of summer if it meant things were warmer and more settled in the heart of the summer period.

I find that the global models always temper the extremities of temp either side. Icon, Harmonie, hi res UKMO etc a lot more accurate in this regard I think. 

GFS Op - not really consistent with the above. LP now near N Scotland circulating around the Norwegian Sea and North Sea until about Tue 11th before moving to Scandinavia with lingering N-lies. Then a modest rise of HP but with shallow troughs sliding SE-wards past Cornwall 995mb Fri 14th and 1015mb Tue 18th. HP then builds more strongly but soon retreats westwards and a general area of LP from Scandinavia to France brings back the N-lies from Fri 21st.

ECM - like GFS at first  but the LP Fri 14th runs towards N Ireland and sticks over the Irish Sea 1005mb Sun 16th

GEM - follows ECM in placing that LP over N Ireland

GEFS - temps remaining on the cool side to about Fri 14th then near norm through to Fri 21st, with quite good agreement from ens members for two weeks. Dry in the S until Tue 11th then frequent small amounts of rain; a more irregular pattern in the N with rain appearing more occasionally but quite heavy in some ens members (and becoming drier in the NE later)

I'm also thankful that it is cool right now as we've been moving and packing boxes at home, in preparation to for the big shift up north. Just hoping it's not too wet over this weekend, when most of the furniture is going.

 Same on apple app temps which data crap model they get is seriously wrong most days by 3 to 5C lower than actual. They were showing correct 20C from this weekend to early next week to 24C to straight 15C which is not possible with warm Europe to Lapland that reached 26C so likely low 20s as normal for near mid June.   

Hi,

Last week watched the world weather on sky or bbc, one one of them said a south american country just had its coldest may on record. I dont know which  country

I think it was southern parts of Chile and maybe parts of Argentina rather than one specific country and very much in contrast to many other countries.

Meanwhile the outlook for the next week or so in the UK remains on the cool side.

GFS - current LP near NE Scotland slowly moving to Scandinavia but lingering N-lies until Tue 11th. Brief ridge of HP before shallow troughs move into Britain from the Atlantic 1005mb Sat 15th E Anglia, 1000mb Mon 17th Ireland, the latter making a slow anti-clockwise circuit of Britain before retreating northwards Sat 22nd as the Azores ridge builds from the SW (Yesterday this trough was shown as slipping SE-wards past Cornwall but today the outlook is much more like what ECM then showed). Scandinavia gets the benefits of HP from Sat 15th onwards.

ECM - also has trough from the Atlantic but takes one bite at it, not two, starting Sat 15th 995mb S Ireland and then moving across England to the N Sea Mon 17th. Both GFS and ECM look to be cooler than suggested by WX.

GEM - the trough arrives earlier Thu 13th and does the perambulation of Britain as described above, but in this model it links to LP off the Norwegian coast for generally lower pressure over all of Britain, and no HP for Scandinavia.

GEFS - on the cool side to Sat 15th then near norm to Sat 22nd with good ensemble agreement; at the very end some members show much warmer. Rain in the S from Tue 11th in most runs, mostly small amounts but possibility of heavier Thu 13th and in the SW at any time; in the N rain starts a day or two earlier and is more intermittent though never far away, except that the far NE has some longer drier spells around the 15th.