GFS Op - current HP slipping W-wards allowing LP near Iceland to develop, more so than yesterday, deepest 990mb Faeroes Wed 5th with cold N/NW-lies. Although this LP fills, it hangs around the Norwegian Sea and North Sea with a N-ly cast to the weather until Mon 10th when HP builds in from the SW. This HP is present over Britain for the following week, but from Sat 15th LP west of Ireland links with that lurking over France and becomes centred 1005mb over much of SW Britain Tue 18th.

ECM - that LP isn't merely 'around' but moves W to cover Britain with a 'cool pool' 1005mb Wed 12th, and no sign of HP from the SW. Alas, ECM has been more consistent and accurate than GFS over the last few days.

GEM - closer to GFS; the LP Wed 5th is more out to the NE and affecting Britain to a lesser extent, and then HP does build in on Mon 10th but from NW, not SW

GEFS - temps dropping from norm to cool Wed 5th, slowly recovering to norm Wed 12th with quite good ens agreement after which a spread of outcomes either side of norm. Not much rain at first in S/SW, rather more continual in N/NE, some runs showing spikes now and then anywhere esp Sat 15th.

Likely a severe outlier for ECM and GFS correct even the apps show decent recovering temperatures and more sunshin with very little rain around.

The ECM 00z op run was not an outlier at any point. It’s also not that wet away from the NW

Good post. Let’s hope so 🤞 

It’s pretending to be summer here again today, but later next week looks garbage again

Let’s hope the GFS is closer to the final output as more weather like today’s would be lovely.

We just had the warmest Spring on record, and we are on the 3rd day of summer, hardly baltic. 

GFS Op - LP near Iceland extending NW-ly influence over Britain at its peak on Wed 5th, staying around the N Sea to Fri 7th, then moving to Sweden before HP appears from SW 1025mb to cover Britain Tue 11th, and after a few days with a rather uncertain ridge, HP is back in full control by Tue 18th. Pressure is low over E Europe at first and later over C Europe.

ECM - the LP is slower to move away, still affecting Britain Mon 10th, and then the incoming HP only covers S England Thu 13th with LP 1005mb Shetland and strong W-lies between. 

GEM - resembles GFS, but with a stronger HP 1030mb persisting from Tue 11th centred over N Ireland, and consequent fresh E-lies through the Channel.

GEFS - a drop to cool in all ens members on Wed 5th followed by a steady rise to norm or a little above over the next fortnight with fair agreement for England, a wider spread with some much warmer for Scotland. A few splashes of rain in the S, more likely around Sat 15th, but rather more in quantity and frequency for the NW.

A generally pleasant outlook, though I'm not as enthusiastic as APS; and a caveat that ECM has been the most accurate forecast over the last week or so.

Certainly encouraging but the Ops is at the higher end of the GFS runs. The overall pattern is for a build of high pressure to the south west rather than the south at the moment.  

​​​​​​Op still in the minority though, but it does have some support.  Also a good solid warming trend with time.

But hardly that warm. 😂 It's been an underwhelming meteorological Spring, at least for this neck of the woods. 

Anyway, at least the latest runs offers a temporary glimmer of hope in terms of some prolonged decent weather beyond this week, but in the deterministic range it's pretty much the same old same old.  

Let hope so because after a false warmest spring on record when temps didn't go to 25C in March, 29C in April or 33C in May which are the 3 hottest maxes on each Spring month that qualifiy warmest spring on record.    Let hope it continue the trend to correction summery pattern we badly needed this year. 

Compare that with two weeks ago when I decided at short notice to go to the New Forest for two days as the forecast on the Sunday night for Tuesday/Wednesday was warm, sunny Tuesday and hazy sunshine Wednesday with the risk of a shower. The reality was sunny Tuesday morning then 36 hours solid of rain! So this is about model output predictions but it gets worse so the rest can go in the "Moaning" thread!

Wouldn't that be around average though? 17c any time of year could in no way be described as 'Baltic', if you mean that in the winterly sense anyway. The Baltics can get very hot in Summer. 

🤞 

I'm in Shetland at the moment, you'll get all the weather in one day, we've had lovely sun, pouring rain, wind, all at different times today, you'll still get plenty of good pictures.  Cold and wind is what they are good at up here, just wrap up and have a good holiday.

GFS Op - current LP near Iceland about to feed in some modified Arctic air, and remaining close to the NE until Sun 9th after which HP builds from the SW to cover Britain 1025mb Tue 11th. This is diminished by a shallow trough off W Ireland Sat 15th which weakens as it moves eastwards and HP is back in control Tue 18th (though there is a thundery-looking LP over the Low Countries Thu 20th).

ECM - similar to GFS and not showing an LP settling over England later on, as it did yesterday. Its final chart for Fri 14th indicates that the trough off W Ireland is being held off by a ridge of HP connecting to Norway.

GEM - agrees with ECM though keeping the current LP closer to Scotland for a day longer

GEFS - EDIT, updated - dip in temps to 5C below norm in the next couple of days, rising steadily back to norm Wed 12th with good agreement to that point. Mean then stays near norm with a variety of outliers from warm to cool.  Dry at first, small amounts of rain in some runs  from Tue 11th in S & SW;  but some rain in most runs throughout elsewhere, heavy at times in W Scotland