GFS OP - HP nudging in from the west and just about retaining control over Britain until Mon 10th, though LP never far from NE Scotland (some cool NW-lies) or SW England (thundery weather over France?). From the 10th the traditional pattern of a ridge from the Azores giving fine weather in the S and unsettled in the far N.

ECM - similar to GFS but has the LP off NE Scotland deeper and more extensive esp around Wed 5th before it moves away.

GEM - follows ECM

GEFS - warmer until Sat 4th then cooler until Mon 10th, the latter more pronounced and with better ens agreement in Scotland, after which a general spread either side of norm. A little rain in the E at first, then dry until 4th in Scotland or 7th in England, after which increasing chances of rain anywhere

Each of GFS, ECM and GEM stick with the initial phase of high pressure building in over the UK from the west, then a low to move over the top of if, causing it to decline as we start next week.

Whereas previously the models had aligned to have that low then sinking broadly SSE'wards down the North Sea, all now show rising pressure over Central Europe, which blocks this southwards route for the big low and keeps it bottled generally to the NNE/NE of the UK. 

GFS spins an active front south over the UK through the middle of next week, but then quite quickly fills the low, causing it to fragment into a messy picture from Iceland to Scandinavia (wet over Scotland, drier as you move south under a flabby ridge). It then builds the retreated high back in over the UK from the SW as we hit next weekend. Into FI and, after briefly sitting over the UK, the high then links northwards with a ridging Greenland High. A low well to our north severs that link and a resultant weak high over the UK is soon toppled SE'wards by a new train of Atlantic lows

ECM keeps the influence of the initial high over the UK for an extra day, but then has the low much more active and persistent, sitting just north of/over Shetland. The whole of the UK is unsettled through the middle of the week. All the while, the high sits in the mid-North Atlantic to our west and eventually drifts back eastwards. Right at the end of the run it makes it back over the UK - but there's a nasty low with a huge front stretching S from Greenland to level with Southern Spain waiting to hit us.

GEM also keeps the low intact, but meanders it around the Norwegian Sea, so it's [wet] influence on the UK waxes and wanes through next week. GEM then, unhelpfully, spawns a little low over France and migrates it northwards in time for next weekend. It dissipates pretty quickly, leaving most of the UK more under the influence of the high camped off the SW tip of Ireland.

Average high in Reading in mid-June (91-20): 20.4C. Saying it's "vile" because it's not 25C (4.5C above average) is frankly hilarious - think you'd be better off in the moaning thread!

Or put it another way... on a day like today, when it's been wet, windy and cloudy all morning, with the wind from the NW at that, and only just  brightening up now, it's just 3C below average... what I wouldn't give to see a day where it was 4.5C below average, but it's frankly impossible this time of year down here. It'll warm up further as soon as the sun comes out, of course, as it's damned strong this time of year, almost as strong as it gets in the UK.

EDIT: Remember, folks, we're not in the Med. Just as we're not Norway in the winter, neither are we southern France in the summer. I do wonder what the whinging would be like if we were to get an 80s summer, mind you... the 61-90 Reading mid-June average high was 19.4, and even in July and August it was only 21C!

Surely it will waste potential warm with longest daylight hours in June.  So glad the conseratory is a game changer like today so cold and unexpected overvast skies just becausek UK climate cannot cope with 15-16C under full sun on 31st May.  I saw the horrible bank of thin dirty clouds roll in as soon the sun came up.  That the sign of the HP cloud enter here this morning so it need to sod off or replace new clearer HP.

The models need to stop play games, check the date which is June and give us well over due summery settled patterns.  

Unlike the relentless dull murk that will characterise Spring 2024 for the record books. Not cold, but It's been cloudier than normal in March, April and May and as a consequence, frosts have been rare.

And very wet too of course. At least in this part of the UK. 

GFS 168h = Summer 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

ECM 168h = Autumn

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

GFS Op - HP nudging in from the west for a few days but retreating again as LP near Faeroes brings in NW-lies Wed 5th, HP then re-asserts itself to cover Britain 1025mb Sat 8th. This moves eastwards and weakens as a trough develops near Rockall and as the following week progresses the pattern is for fine weather in the SE, unsettled in the NW, but with the trough dipping further south and linking with slack LP over France at times.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Wed 5th, but HP then stays out to the SW, and depressingly the Faeroese LP drops southwards, filling, and lies off the east coast of Scotland 1000mb Sun 9th.

GEM - agrees with ECM but also throws in an extra LP approaching from the SW Mon 10th.

GEFS - temps near norm now, cool Wed 5th for a few days esp in NE, after which ens agreement breaks up but most runs near norm (operational run is a wildly hot outlier on Wed 12th). Rain increasingly likely from Fri 7th in SE, from Wed 5th in NW, in small amounts at first.

Don't like any HP anymore, they just a pest that bring cloud and colder temperatures.  In the past model viewing I always see HP move east as default Earth circulation for N Hemisphere but now it kept reversing back as it go near to UK for some stupid reason.    It getting too difficult to get someing seasonal decent settled weather now.

There must b a serious issue about why HP kept taking unwanted resident over Greenland instead of our lattitude to Azores as it should be due to GW, normally HP belt are in the Azores levels and with GW had shift this too far north than our lattitude.  

One or two commentators on here forecast or hinted at a poor summer about 6 weeks ago. Recent events have proved them correct. I'm now 65% sure this will be a poor to bad summer. 

Locals wearing scarves, hats and winter coats!!

First day of summer on the south coast more like a crapfest. 

The only saving grace is it looks like a pretty dry pattern, so if we can get some sunshine it will feel ok.🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

Have faith folks! No reason atm to think this is going to be a washout.

The above was what it looked like this morning, but I commented a couple of days back that the forecast was unstable.

This evening's chart just goes to prove this. The cold air from the north is now shown as pushing south across Germany and France in week 2 and there's even a blob of freezing weather over Iceland. Finland is cooler  as above but E Europe remains warm. The GEFS members from the 12z support this evolution.

Spring 1995 was good here that time i was in Surrey had couple of warm spells among with colder spells but little rain to record.  May 1995 was great month from 30C early start to 7C max mid month to 32C by end of the month.  That what Spring is all about that but with today what ever models show canont be trusted at all compare to more trusting in 1995 models runs if was existed and widh it never exist today as it bringing misery for us on most times.

Not sure anything about summer is 'proven' on 1st June

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