Other models had, at times, downplayed that influence as they showed higher pressure around the UK keeping the worst of it at a bit of an arm's length.

Typically, the GFS solution now looks most likely, with other models moving towards that broad evolution. GFS and ECM both plant the trough over the UK for a while; GEM moves it through more quickly.

ECM keeps the trough over the UK until the end of a thoroughly miserable run.

GFS into FI moves it off eastwards... then replaces it with another low, which gets trapped over the UK between high pressure to our south and north (as happens annoyingly frequently, we are in the bad and very wet spot between high pressures).

GEM's FI is a different evolution, with a big low centred over Iceland/Faroe but spreading its influence as far as NE Russia in the east and to the UK Midlands to the south. The AH is trying to nudge into the UK from the SW, though, and the southern half of the UK would be mostly dry - but bracing westerly winds.

I concur with Moomin that this summer , at least the early part may well go down as poor based on current weather patterns 

Glad I had the conservatory installed for that very reason and the installer told me there demands for it not the AC units, it was on demand in the 90;s and early 00's summers.  Saw the app showing 24C next week with full sunshine but i don't believe an inch of it, METO/BBC Forecasts and Models still very wrong and unreliable on today age.

Models, forecasts and apps are all so unrelieable and rubbish best use your window to look at first then plan for today only that the absoluate max you can plan, very hard to plan next day as we had no reliable source of correct forecasts/model runs.

There is a May - July contingency Met Office forecast out. Presumably it came out a few weeks ago so I'd expect a Jun-Aug one to be released soon. It's going for warmer and wetter than average with HLB the theme of early summer but with more neutral synoptics later in the period. So perhaps England will generally fare better later in the summer. What's the odds on another September heatwave!?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_mjj_v2.pdf 

The best two summery months of the year being July & August would be quite the novelty these days!

That was the case in 2022 Saint. 

Date, GEFS update, Runs hitting ~30c

Thu 23 MAY 2024 06 4 

Wed 22 MAY 2024 18 1

Wed 22 MAY 2024 06 4

Wed 22 MAY 2024 00 1

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/enhanced-forecast-weather-data-trial 

Obviously I turned it on. It's impressive - my complaints about the UKV data they currently use are that a) it underestimates maximum temperatures on a consistent basis and b) it underestimates the dewpoint.

Both of those points have been adjusted in the new data, whatever it is that they're using: today's high has gone from 19 to 21, for example, and the reality was 21.5.

Old:

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/met0.jpg 

New:

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/met1.jpg 

I have been using and comparing these for a few months, I also found the temperatures better. The old model tended to underestimate greatly at 5-6 days and slowly upgrade temps ( all other things being equal) but now it's better.  Symbols still not great though for rain events though. 

Looks an improvement basically 2 or 3c warmer. Odd though it's an "option" just make it the only data surely. 

There was a Met Office online forum last week (not sure if anyone here attended it) and this wasn't mentioned. However, I suspect they may be using data sets which compare model forecasts with outcomes to identify biases and then apply an adjustment. The reasons I wouldn't just put it live are:

1) You may be robbing Peter to pay Paul. There is always a chance that fixing one issue introduces a new one

2) The adjustments to temperature forecasts may not be good for all locations and /or in all scenarios

Fair enough,  The old data definitely underestimated max temps for here regularly. 

Come to factor that we are very well over due for proper long settled spells, proper warm to hot days and importantly proper wall to wall sunny days.

It got to happen at some point much sooner, as summer season coming up, after nearly a year of unsettled, dull and bland static temps have to come to the end at some point far sooner.  We now near to the end of Spring which did not happen this year as it been Autumnal weather pattern non-stop bar few days dry less than 24 hours settled spells that won't help.  

No sign of it settling down in the near future. Perhaps less wet than it has been but no long dry spell which most of the country needs. We have to remember where we are in the UK so I think the weather for the next couple of weeks looks fairly typical for early summer. I always think it's an ominous sign when western Russia starts to hot up, like it is forecast to do next week. 

UK climate before had lot of variety package that including warm sunny setttled spells that we had none anymore plus other weather type all gone all we get is not normal near 12 months of same Autumnal set up that only known to Faroes and Shetland climates.    I see tomorrow twat apps show full sunshine if true but if so will use that to correction warm up indoors after very cold sunless days lately.   Hope this BH is a repeat of last BH superb weather we last had here.

I'm at an outdoor event for most of Sunday so have been paying close attention to the local forecast. Each day it gets worse, from a few showers to widespread showers to a long period of rain 😡. I should know better than to attend anything outdoors on Bank Holiday weekends!

I've been useing  and comparing for a few weeks now it dose seem better then the previous version. It might be using UKEP, that's in development for the 1st 36 hours?

The rain symbols make zero sense, for example you can't have 50% chance of heavy rain, or 95% chance of light rain. The symbol changes with the % chance of precipitation.

There's something more than just UKEP being used - note the forecast for Sunday in my screenshots (72 hours out at the time) - the temperature rose 3C, which is significant. I wonder if there might be better use of MOGREPS, perhaps using the most likely cluster rather than just the mean/median?

I was thinking that before I saw what you have just posted. I hope not.

Furthermore, I recall back in the winter Jan/Feb? when Spain had a warm/hot spell, some were thinking "If it is this warm now, just think how hot it will be in April and May". From what I've seen, it hasn't been that hot in the Iberian peninsular this spring. So far.