https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Raw windspeeds on the Met Office App are currently peaking at a steady 54mph (just a touch off storm force) for the islands with considerably higher gusts.

That would be a decent storm in winter let alone now in mid Spring. I wouldn't want to be camping on the islands tonight that's for sure!

Luckily the Elm trees are not usually in leaf yet so damage should be fairly limited.

Definitely one to watch!

Yea, and that storm has also been officially named as Storm Pierrick by the French Met Service and since France is part of the same storm naming system as Spain and Portugal, this is the next one on that list after Storm Olivia which gave us all of that heavy rain just recently ahead of Storm Kathleen.

We will be under a Met Office Official yellow warning for rain during tomorrow as a result and given that we've had so much rain here just lately, any further rainfall here is something which we could well do without for now.

High pressure still in the charts.. this might actually happen.

Im more excited about this than a BFTE!

Storm Pierrick is fast becoming a headache for the far Southwest as the strongest winds are forecast for high tide which is unfortunately a big Spring tide so coastal flooding likely to be an issue. 

If anything the wind speed forecast has increased since this morning with some models forecasting gusts north of 85mph. 

The average windspeed on Scilly according to the Met automated is now 56mph - storm 10. 

I'm surprised that there's not an Amber out yet for this given the main event is just hours away.

It doesn't look overly warm - pleasant in the sunshine and chilly of a night?

Not just the far SouthWest

Load up https://www.floodalerts.com/  and see all the flood warnings lining the coasts.

For instance, Old Portsmouth (i.e. by the harbour entrance) has the following "the weather will increase tide table values by 0.76m. The total tide will be 5.75m. This will be the highest tide ever recorded"

The River Esk in East Lothian has already burst its banks in and around Musselburgh (which is just to the east of Edinburgh) so I would hate to imagine what any further rainfall during tomorrow will do, especially if we get anything like the sort of rainfall totals which the models are showing for that period.

In addition to that, I have just seen a picture of a really high tide which occurred today on the side of Newhaven Harbour (which is in the north of Edinburgh, just to the west of Leith) which is closest to the main road. That tide was so high that it actually flooded over the lower walkway on that side of the harbour with the water level almost reaching the seated areas of the benches which are located there.

Of course, those really high tides which cover that area aren't unusual and they actually occur twice a year when the New Moon or Full Moon which causes those spring tides is also relatively close to the Earth.

On this occasion, that was being caused by the same New Moon which is also responsible for today's solar eclipse over in North America (I can currently watching a Facebook livestream of that eclipse as I write) but in six month's time, the same thing will happen again except that this will be the result of a Full Moon being relatively close to the Earth.

In addition to that though, weather conditions can also have a big impact on the tides in terms of their effects and even for the highest spring tides of the year, this particular tide was almost like nothing else I had seen before.

Wow - that would be quite something. I imagine there has been a tide guage at Portsmouth for many years and so to record the highest tide ever would be an exceptional event. 

The flood defences are in place on The Point this evening and sandbags are being distributed to properties on the Camber and down High Street. I’ll probably pop down later and take a look.

See 'current conditions' thread.

GFS Op - current small LP off to Norway by tomorrow, then a week under the influence of HP centred over France with winds from the SW later W. Then LP moves in to affect mostly the N Sun 14th (990mb Shetland), never really getting away from NW Europe with winds for Britain first N-ly then NW-ly to Sun 21st after which Atlantic HP settles over W Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS, the later HP however moving in a day or two earlier, say Fri 19th.

GEFS - cool now, recovering quickly to mild (even warm in S) dropping sharply to cool Mon 15th (14th in Scotland) all with very good ens agreement. The mean recovers to norm and stays to Wed 24th as ens members increasingly disagree, by Sun 21st op and control at opposite extremes in the SE , the former rather cool and the latter rather warm, but both cool elsewhere. Once tomorrow's rain moves off, dry for several days, not much rain anyway later.

Warm wasnt the reason... Im looking for Dry.

Anything dry.  (as he looks out the window and its torrential rain... again)

Oh, it wasn't a criticism, Russ! I'm not fussed whether it is warm or cool at this time of year. It was just an observation/question (with one eye slightly looking toward my monthly CET guess..)

0z ECM places the high to the NW with a low over the France/Belgium/Germany border, bringing NE'ly winds and a reverse of the norm (so the NW best; SE worst)

6z GFS retrogresses the high to the south of Greenland, with low pressure to our N bringing a chilly flow and further unsettled weather from the NW (it does, later in the run, build the high over Scotland)

0z GEM has the high to the SW, with settled conditions away from Scotland/NE England

Can't wait for the first sight of bikini sunbathers in the park. You know Summer has arrived then

"Tit Monday"

Even the temps at the cooler end of the MO spectrum aren't anything to cause problems for wildlife at this time of year. 

Share your desire for some dry, though!

Looking for warmth? We're about 4C above the April mean!

Admittedly the real anomaly has been overnight temperatures but even daytime has been well above average.  It does look like we'll be near average over the next couple of weeks after the end of week mild spell, so there is a chance that the second half of April will be cooler than the first half 

Indeed - it's been a very warm start to the month, with temperatures effortlessly in the mid to high teens down here by day, and not falling much at night. (Tonight will be the first cold night in a long time).

It's also a hell of a lot warmer than it used to be: the 61-90 April average max for Brogdale - the nearest official station to me - is 11.95C, the 91-20 average max is 14.17 - and here, at least, the average max so far is 16.7! Ridiculous, frankly, and I think people (meaning no offence) have forgotten what our weather should be like.

(As a kid in the 90s, I remember the excitement at reaching 16 for the first time, or 61 in old money - it usually happened in April, but seldom for very long).

It's been far from warm, or even mild, for most of the time over the past couple of weeks where I live.

On Friday just passed the screen behind the steering wheel in my car (I have a Seat Leon which was new in 2015) said the temperature at lunchtime that day was only 3.5C, and no wonder as it felt positively baltic here with a strong NE wind. There have been numerous other days in the past fortnight when the maximum temperature wasn not that much, if at all, higher. That is way below average for the middle of a day in the first week of April, even in Scotland.

I think much of the warmth seen recently has been mostly confined to southern areas, as precious little of it has made its way up here. It is supposed to be somewhat warmer up here towards the end of the week, but it doesn't look like lasting long if the forecast proved to be right.

I think we are a little below the April mean here with very little in the Way of warmth (or dry weather). On the plus side Thursday and Friday both look decent enough and pleasantly warm. I would settle for warm or dry but the latter is definitely more needed.

GFS Op - winds going round to a brisk SW-ly under the direction of 1030mb HP over France, declining after Sat 13th as LP runs SE-wards over the Northern Isles and into the N Sea with brief N-lies to follow. By Wed 17th HP has re-asserted itself and becomes centred over Britain 1025mb, only to give way to a shallow LP from the north 1005mb Tue 23rd covering Britain, followed by a weak pressure rise.

ECM - similar to GFS though the LP Sat 13th promotes a deeper trough over Britain as it passes by. The last frame (Sat 20th) suggests that the HP may give way to a milder LP from the west, not north.

GEFS - Quite generally mild/very mild to Sun 14th, when a sudden drop to cool with very good ens agreement, followed by a few days a little below norm with moderate agreement, and from Fri 19th mean stays near norm amidst increasing disagreement (op & control cool later on). Very little rain in the S, not much more in the north after a a wet couple of days around the 14th, also bits and pieces cropping up in far NW.

Apologies for the NIMBY post. I was referring to Fairweather's area (South Essex) along with the CET. Of course, further north I realise that it has been much colder and particularly miserable in eastern Scotland