Succinct version:

Garbage

More accurately: Settled

Whilst not perfect, for the first time for months there are consecutive dry days indicated!

Fingers crossed it all drifts westward nearer the time, as it did all winter.

Don't you mean 'eastwards'?

GFS Op - LP near Iceland runs past NE Scotland into the N Sea Mon/Tue while the HP over France moves first into the Atlantic and then back over Britain 1020mb Sat 20th. LP over Scandinavia then deepens, extends a trough across Britain which then deepens into distinct LP 985mb S Ireland Wed 24th. This fills and moves north with HP arriving rather uncertainly from the south by Sun 28th.

ECM - similar to GFS until Sat 20th but then the HP intensifies; instead of LP and a trough from Scandinavia there is HP and a ridge up to 1030mb over Britain Tue 23rd (end of run). Could scarcely be more different! Any LP is banished to Poland.

GEFS - temps dropping to cool Sunday, staying there to Fri 19th, then a few days when the temp is back to norm all with good ens agreement. From Tue 23rd in the S, a day or two earlier in the N, the mean with the majority of ens members drops to and stays at 2 or 3C below norm (op & control amongst the coldest runs). Not very much rain, some in the near future in Scotland, generally increasing a little after 23rd. 

GEM has the high meandering around to the west and over the UK

GFS retrogresses to form a huge Greenland High 🤣

Both ECM and GFS evolutions would have been great in January!

GFS Op - HP moving from France to N Atlantic as LP slides SE-wards into the N Sea Mon/Tue and on to C Europe. The Atlantic HP hangs around off W Britain (so weak N-lies) until Fri 19th when it moves closer, 1035mb Bristol Sun 21st. It continues to dominate British weather for the following week, though always threatening to move back to the Atlantic with cool weather off the N Sea for the east, finally collapsing and allowing LP 1010mb to drift S-wards across Britain Sun 28th.

ECM - similar to GFS though (i) LP on Mon/Tue is closer to NE Britain with stronger NW-lies generally (ii) after Sun 21st the HP develops as a narrow ridge from the Atlantic across Britain to Norway with  more of an E-ly influence for England.

GEFS - Cool now, just a hint of near-normal around Sat 20th, then mean stays a degree or two below norm throughout with moderate agreement between ens members. Mostly dry, small amounts of rain now and then (e.g. showers in the NW today), more rain appearing in a few ens members after Thu 25th. 

Yes!

GFS Op - LP running SE down to Denmark 990mb by tomorrow albeit closer than shown yesterday, eventually losing itself over Belarus. HP then developing W of Ireland, its progress delayed by another LP running SE on Fri 19th but not so close as the present one (BBC shows it nearer Britain than GFS). By Sunday 21st the HP has reached Wales 1030mb. On Wed 24th the HP has collapsed and Britain comes under the influence of LP from Scandinavia which becomes ensconced over Britain through to Wed 1st, mostly shallow but with local centres popping up near the W or SW.

ECM - similar to GFS but shows LP more widely over continental Europe from Mon 22nd and consequently stronger E/NE winds over S England at that time

GEFS - cool now, close to norm for a few days from Sun 21st, then cool, even cold ca 5C below norm, again until Wed 1st. Some variation in ens members from the 21st but closing up again after that. Dry Fri 19th to Tue 23rd but otherwise small amounts of rain in one run or another throughout. 

Think you might have spoken too soon. 😂 At least going by the past couple of GFS runs. Even the ECM puts my corner of the world under a cold and damp north east airflow. 

GFS Op - HP very gradually moving into Britain from the W, finally 1030mb covering the country Sun 21st; until then LP generally near the Baltic keeps winds in the N especially on N Sea coasts. The Baltic LP then has another go, 1000mb N Sea appearing Wed 24th with HP retreating to the Atlantic and  only returning to NW Britain Sun 28th. The final chart, Thu 2nd, has HP well settled over Scotland but pressure has dropped over S France to produce quite strong E-lies for England.

ECM - similar to GFS though that Baltic LP stays on the other side of the N Sea and pressure remains quite high over Britain Wed 24th.

GEFS - temps rising from cool now to norm or a little above for a few days from Sun 21st; then mean drops away a little (op & control amongst the cooler ens members here) and finally recovers to norm approaching Thu 2nd. A few outliers on the mild side now and then, and a few colder ones around the 23rd, but most ens members not far from mean. Dry around 21st, small amounts of rain in some ens members later.

"Traditional economics makes ludicrous assumptions and poor predictions. Now an alternative approach using big data and psychological insights is proving far more accurate... Economics is often lambasted for being a pseudoscience, with dense mathematical formulae that belie its subjectivity and a poor track record of making accurate predictions. J. Doyne Farmer thinks we can do better. In his new book, Making Sense of Chaos, he unpicks why standard economic approaches often fail – and presents a radical alternative. Complexity economics, as it is called, treats economies as systems akin to natural ecosystems or Earth’s climate. Giant computer simulations based on these ideas offer a better representation of how billions of people interact within the global economy

The man reinventing economics with chaos theory and complexity science

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg26234870-200-the-man-reinventing-economics-with-chaos-theory-and-complexity-science/ 

Works for me, but I use an addin that makes sites like that think I'm Google. (If companies want to serve the full thing to Google but not to anyone else, so be it - at least it's easy to circumvent!)

You can read it here, FWIW. Archive.is also pretends to be Google, so can get the full thing!

https://archive.is/uSBeq 

GFS Op - HP from Atlantic creeping closer to Britain but not really arriving until the weekend while LP over Scandinavia keeps N-lies running down the NSea. Over the following week this intensifies towards Iceland while LP shifts down to S France keeping cool weather with E-lies for the south of Britain. On Sun 28th what seems to be a semi-permanent area of LP over Scandinavia projects a trough over England 1000mb East Anglia before withdrawing as HP feeds in again from the SW.

ECM - similar to GFS though early on (Fri 19th) LP is closer to NE Scotland and later on (Fri 26th) the LP over France is less developed so E-lies weaker for the south.

GEFS - a day of mild weather Fri 19th (and in Scotland a couple of days again around the 23rd) then consistently cool, even cold with temps 5 or 6C below norm for a long period, only slowly rising to norm by Fri 3rd all with good ens agreement. Mostly dry, though one or two ens members have occasional spikes of heavy rain in the SE after Fri 26th. 

"In Making Sense of Chaos one of INET Oxford's most influential scientists, J. Doyne Farmer, tackles these questions and more. Introducing the new field of complexity economics, he describes how rebellious economists and other scientists are revolutionising our ability to predict the economy, developing new approaches to global problems – like climate change, inequality, and the devastating impact of financial crises, which hit the poorest hardest."

https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/making-sense-of-chaos-a-better-economics-for-a-better-world 

Western Britain is looking milder, especially Northern Ireland on Sunday.  

EDIT: Just seen Ian's post on a similar theme above!!

Even though we may not think it, weather is far less chaotic than is commonly considered. A butterfly flapping its wings will not change the course of any weather system... indeed it would take massive inputs to change course of the weather.

Weather faithfully follows the laws of physics. The only reason we cannot interpret current situations to accurately predict the progression of any synoptic situation is that there are literally too many contributory factors - from every corner of the globe - that dictate how any set-up will then progress. With enough data inputs, it would be possible to accurately predict the weather from weeks out. 

It's near-impossible, though, to have sufficient data inputs, for two main reasons. One is the sheer scale of the number of inputs, and from around the world; the second (bigger) problem is that we have nowhere near the scale of historical records of how the weather reacts to different inputs (because there are simply too many variables, and you'd need millions of years of historical data)

"In Making Sense of Chaos one of INET Oxford's most influential scientists, J. Doyne Farmer, tackles these questions and more. Introducing the new field of complexity economics, he describes how rebellious economists and other scientists are revolutionising our ability to predict the economy, developing new approaches to global problems – like climate change, inequality, and the devastating impact of financial crises, which hit the poorest hardest."

https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/making-sense-of-chaos-a-better-economics-for-a-better-world 

Sorry, I meant to add a bit more to tie my post back your yours 😬

I was going to say that economic modelling based on computer simulations is pretty pointless, given the way that even relatively small actors on the global stage can have major impacts on the economic trajectory.

Look at the economic chaos that has ensued from Putin's invasion of Ukraine, with that massive inflationary spike. On a smaller scale, the Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea.

The global economic course can be heavily deviated by the actions of one state, in a way that weather cannot be.