The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
05 March 2024 16:05:21

I don’t recall reading any predictions for California?  After another virtually snowless winter for lowland England I would have thought the predictions were pretty good, as have been the prediction that our winters would become warmer and wetter.  Then there is the lack of snow and retreating glaciers across Alpine regions, also in line with climate change predictions.

But let’s focus on a freak snowstorm in a part of California…..

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

As a keen skier I have been watching the situation across the Alps with dismay. So often I have tuned in to the ski racing and seen bare green mountains with just a thin strip of artificial snow on the piste, struggling to survive. I would only choose a resort with glacier skiing, these days.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

DEW
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05 March 2024 16:08:02

I don’t recall reading any predictions for California?  After another virtually snowless winter for lowland England I would have thought the predictions were pretty good, as have been the prediction that our winters would become warmer and wetter.  Then there is the lack of snow and retreating glaciers across Alpine regions, also in line with climate change predictions.

But let’s focus on a freak snowstorm in a part of California…..

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It's more interesting than you imply, as I take your reply to mean that you regard it as a one-off event. 

I recommend reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droughts_in_California  which links an irregular cycle of dry years and wet years, each in turn lasting up to a decade, to the effects of global warming. Unfortunately some studies suggest that warming makes dry years more likely and other studies favour wetter years, just to muddy the waters as it were.

In the 2010s I remember reading articles predicting doom for Californian agriculture as not enough snowmelt was occurring to allow for the necessary irrigation. . So I regard this snowfall, yes, as an extreme example of what can happen when California is in a wet part of the cycle, but falling well within an area of interest for those who follow unusual weather, and not appropriate for casual dismissal.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Retron
05 March 2024 16:27:37

Someone from our Met Office expressed this very neatly the other day when he said the global average temperature has risen by about 1C since the 1960's which is a huge change but the difference in maximum temperatures from day to day even in a temperate climate like the UK can vary by as much as 15C in an average winter. This is the difference between weather and climate

 

Originally Posted by: lanky 

There was an article on the BBC News website last week (going on about the warmth in February), and there was a quote saying that Edinburgh and Cumbria now see as many air frosts in a typical winter as Kent and Sussex used to get "50 years ago".

Still, best not to mourn for what you've lost, but be glad to have experienced it in the first place - that's my motto!


Leysdown, north Kent
Gandalf The White
05 March 2024 22:10:15

It's more interesting than you imply, as I take your reply to mean that you regard it as a one-off event. 

I recommend reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droughts_in_California  which links an irregular cycle of dry years and wet years, each in turn lasting up to a decade, to the effects of global warming. Unfortunately some studies suggest that warming makes dry years more likely and other studies favour wetter years, just to muddy the waters as it were.

In the 2010s I remember reading articles predicting doom for Californian agriculture as not enough snowmelt was occurring to allow for the necessary irrigation. . So I regard this snowfall, yes, as an extreme example of what can happen when California is in a wet part of the cycle, but falling well within an area of interest for those who follow unusual weather, and not appropriate for casual dismissal.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

No, David, I wasn’t suggesting it was a one off event; my comment was in the context of the title of this thread, ie unusual weather events.  You’re absolutely right that climate change means increasingly unpredictable weather, but around a trajectory of increasing temperatures.  

For many years in the old climate forum I made the point that we were tampering with a complex system where there would be tipping points and unpredictable consequences. 

My post was in no way ‘a casual dismissal’; it was about context.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



DEW
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06 March 2024 07:51:40
While California gets a soaking, Panama, not far away in global terms, is suffering prolonged drought. Various expensive-looking countermeasures are being attempted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68467529 

A lack of rain and the El Nino weather phenomenon have contributed to the second driest year in the canal's 110-year history. Last October was the driest month since records began. 

The number of vessels has been slashed from an average of 36 to 24. Each ship is also carrying less cargo now because of weight restrictions. The slowdown spells trouble for global trade.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Gandalf The White
06 March 2024 21:50:31

While California gets a soaking, Panama, not far away in global terms, is suffering prolonged drought. Various expensive-looking countermeasures are being attempted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68467529 

A lack of rain and the El Nino weather phenomenon have contributed to the second driest year in the canal's 110-year history. Last October was the driest month since records began. 

The number of vessels has been slashed from an average of 36 to 24. Each ship is also carrying less cargo now because of weight restrictions. The slowdown spells trouble for global trade.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Panama is about 3,000 miles south of California, further than the distance between California and New York.  California’s climate is Mediterranean-like; Panama’s is tropical.

The drought has been having an increasing impact for about a year now.  I wonder why they haven’t considered pumping up sea water if it’s getting so serious?  Is it just too costly and difficult?


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Rob K
06 March 2024 21:57:38

Panama is about 3,000 miles south of California, further than the distance between California and New York.  California’s climate is Mediterranean-like; Panama’s is tropical.

The drought has been having an increasing impact for about a year now.  I wonder why they haven’t considered pumping up sea water if it’s getting so serious?  Is it just too costly and difficult?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

The lakes that feed the canal also supply drinking water. So filling them with sea water, even if it was possible, would not be a great idea. (Presumably it would also be fairly catastrophic environmentally too!)


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gandalf The White
06 March 2024 22:02:35

The lakes that feed the canal also supply drinking water. So filling them with sea water, even if it was possible, would not be a great idea. (Presumably it would also be fairly catastrophic environmentally too!)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

😮🤣🤣🤣

I know. What I was suggesting was pumping sea water up, not polluting the lakes.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



BJBlake
07 March 2024 07:20:34

There was an article on the BBC News website last week (going on about the warmth in February), and there was a quote saying that Edinburgh and Cumbria now see as many air frosts in a typical winter as Kent and Sussex used to get "50 years ago".

Still, best not to mourn for what you've lost, but be glad to have experienced it in the first place - that's my motto!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yea - that’s reasonable. i do mourn the loss though, and think back with fondness to my childhood days in Sussex, walking on frozen ponds and frosts lasting days, snow days when the bus wouldn’t arrive and we all got a day playing in the snow. Such a wooded county, and very beautiful in the snow.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Rob K
08 March 2024 19:55:16

😮🤣🤣🤣

I know. What I was suggesting was pumping sea water up, not polluting the lakes.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

As I understand it the canal and the lakes are intimately connected, in fact long stretches of the canal are basically just a marked route through the lakes. I don’t see how you could use sea water really. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
11 March 2024 14:57:19
This is a cool video. A year of weather as seen from space!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4rRvUXSgnA 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Roger Parsons
14 March 2024 06:38:26
Last week, sky watchers in Texas witnessed a bright display of noctilucent clouds (NLCs). This should be impossible. They were man-made.

See my post in the "Space News" thread in "Science & Nature".


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Chunky Pea
14 March 2024 22:54:46
Phenomenal intercept by Reed Trimmer in Kansas last night. 'Nader" formed directly over the his crews head. Cloudscapes in the 2nd half the the vid are just beyond incredible. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

polarwind
15 March 2024 20:34:40

   For more about these storms see -

   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-68577700

  


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

The Beast from the East
16 March 2024 03:34:58
That Reed Timmer guy is still going! I remember watching a doc with him in it back in the early 00s. Who was the famous guy that was killed by a tornado? He was on TV a lot too

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 March 2024 10:14:21
While researching the family history, and looking through a Google book 'History of the Dundee Banking Company', I came across this in the Memoranda of events for 1780; "From January 12th to 26th, the thermometer in the Botanic Garden, Edinburgh, showed a range of cold from 20 deg to 36 deg below the freezing point; and in Glasgow, a thermometer hung in the air, in Observatory Park, marked even 46 deg below it.

Degrees Fahrenheit, presumably (46 F below = 25 C below); those were the days!


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
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22 March 2024 07:56:06
Major outbreak of wildfires in Virginia and Maryland

https://news.sky.com/video/virginia-wow-thats-hot-man-drives-alongside-raging-wildfires-in-us-13099651 

That seems rather early in the year, even if the eastern US has has a dry winter (I think I've seen reports of that).


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Perthite1
23 March 2024 06:36:43
Even for Perth and surrounds the last 6 months have been unusually dry. At my location just south of Perth we have recorded 22 mm of rain since October 1st and most of that came in a thunderstorm in January. Today, as with so many other days it’s clear blue skies and sunshine with a warm easterly breeze. Looking to the southern horizon the smoke from a distant bushfire in the forests to the south is burning. The fire risks around here are approaching extreme levels with how dry the vegetation is. It’s time for the rain dance I think. The rains usually arrive here in April or May as we have a Mediterranean climate. However, this does look like the driest summer since the colonials started taking records here which is the 1870s.
scillydave
23 March 2024 16:32:52
An extraordinary temperature record set last night. El Ejido in Spain recorded Europe's highest March minimum at 28.1c as the low!!! It's so far above the old record that it would also beat April's highest minimum for the whole of Europe!!

Absolutely incredible and also frankly frightening as it's a foretaste of the future.

 


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 March 2024 21:45:02
Ski-ing can be exciting - but this excitement is too much!

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-68695712 

High winds in Italian Alps all but tip skiers out of chair lift - video


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Ally Pally Snowman
Retron
30 March 2024 15:16:34

Remarkable heat in Eastern Europe atm. Belgrade nudging 30c in March.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Just look at the forecast for next week - summer-type heat to our east, over a massive area.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png 

I can't help but think we're in for another 40C sooner rather than later... we avoided it last year, but our luck won't hold forever!


Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
30 March 2024 15:54:30

Just look at the forecast for next week - summer-type heat to our east, over a massive area.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png 

I can't help but think we're in for another 40C sooner rather than later... we avoided it last year, but our luck won't hold forever!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Could well be, heat records have been tumbling all over the world recently. 

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
31 March 2024 04:39:30

Could well be, heat records have been tumbling all over the world recently. 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes only the Uk won’t get any heat records at all but more at record summer cold temps rain and very dull. 

One area in a village had reached 31.8 in Cyprus while Nicosia was 29.1C.  This month failed to have a decent warm spring days with full sunshine.

GezM
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31 March 2024 10:02:04

Yes only the Uk won’t get any heat records at all but more at record summer cold temps rain and very dull. 

.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Not sure about record UK cold but my initial gut feeling is that much of the extreme heat will stay on the continent this summer. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

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