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Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
25 June 2023 13:42:03
I think we can safely assume that we have all predicted  too low this month with Art's 16.14c the highest.
The table below shows the CET competition order at the half way stage in the year and the distance each of us is from the leader.
Ricm has taken over from Caz at the top but its very close.
Interesting to see that last year's bottom 2 , Artzeman and Bolty, are in the top 6 and challenging for the title whereas  December 2022's top 5 , shown  in bold, are all towards the bottom of the table.
We've lost around one quarter of the original 2023 entrants; mostly from around the bottom of the table.

rickm           0
caz               0.18
artzeman     0.24
Gavin D       0.63
grandad      0.66
bolty            0.68
tierradelfuego 0.80
dingle rob   0.86
taylor1740   1.05
windywillow 1.11
stomchaser  1.56
scillydave     1.70
norseman    1.73
kendalian     2.06
hungry tiger 2.26
jmm2005      2.31
gezm            2.46
lanky             2.48
redmoons     2.54
sussex snow magnet 2.60
jacee            2.73
snowshoe    2.96
sswd            2.96
col               3.01
frank h        3.80
ap snowman 4.15
bertwhistle  4.51
Wrightington, Wigan
+2
Gavin D
25 June 2023 13:54:00
Hadley

17.0c to the 24th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average
lanky
25 June 2023 14:28:44
If the CET for the remaining 6 days of June come in at 6C my 14.8 for this month will be spot on 😀
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2023 06:34:21

If the CET for the remaining 6 days of June come in at 6C my 14.8 for this month will be spot on 😀

Originally Posted by: lanky 

😂
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
26 June 2023 09:53:30
IMANSF22                16.9c             Haydon           1.78c
Metcheck                  16.84c          Anomaly          2.69c
Netweather               17.49c          Anomaly          3,4c
Peasedown St John    18.0c           Anomaly          1.8c.   




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
26 June 2023 13:31:50
Hadley

17.1c to the 25th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average
Spring Sun Winter Dread
26 June 2023 22:06:43
This month is gonna be yet another bad guess in one of the worst years of predicting I've ever done on here but it matters not .. each month is a fresh excitement in guessing what the weather will do next and when I'm wrong I usually have the compensation of it being a more interesting month to watch for its unpredictability .
February and June have been the months that really did for me , in Feb I bought into all the hype about a late SSW/easterly which then turned up in March in diminished form... And in June the month actually started off pretty cool and while I anticipated a warm up, what has transpired has blown me and indeed all of us away .
In fairness it was about time . Nearly half a century since June 1976 and the nearest approach was almost 1C cooler ?? It was never gonna last ! 
 
+1
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2023 05:22:50
I agree!  Wherever I am on the table, it’s fun!  However, I am feeling under a bit of pressure now to add more points, so being up there is maybe not such fun!  😂
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
27 June 2023 11:10:35
IMANSF22              16.9c            Haydon         17.8c
Metcheck                16.83c          Anomaly       2.68c
Netweather             17.43c          Anomaly       3.39c
Peasedown St John  17.56c         Anomaly       1.72c.    




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
27 June 2023 12:52:24
Hadley

17.1c to the 26th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average
Stormchaser
27 June 2023 13:49:18
Thanks for the analysis Frank. Perhaps there's been a general underestimation of the contribution from well above normal SSTs to the W & NW of the UK... and/or their upscaling to record-high levels during the middle stages of the month. Back in late June I thought I was being a little bold estimating about a degree above the 1991-2020 average... so much for that! 😄

Curiously July also looks to start cool but with hints of something warmer later. Hmm!

I'm going to the Balearic Isles for a week starting very early tomorrow - almost the perfect timing you might say - so will send my CET estimate shortly. Arguably a handicap but to be honest, the 2nd half of the month tends to be subject to so much uncertainty that any disadvantage on my part likely pales by comparison.

Potential for a 'shock to the system' for me upon return, depending on whether ECM's right to keep the trough parked overhead rather than shifting it westward to enable a warmup despite continued showery conditions.
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
+1
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2023 17:37:09

Thanks for the analysis Frank. Perhaps there's been a general underestimation of the contribution from well above normal SSTs to the W & NW of the UK... and/or their upscaling to record-high levels during the middle stages of the month. Back in late June I thought I was being a little bold estimating about a degree above the 1991-2020 average... so much for that! 😄

Curiously July also looks to start cool but with hints of something warmer later. Hmm!

I'm going to the Balearic Isles for a week starting very early tomorrow - almost the perfect timing you might say - so will send my CET estimate shortly. Arguably a handicap but to be honest, the 2nd half of the month tends to be subject to so much uncertainty that any disadvantage on my part likely pales by comparison.

Potential for a 'shock to the system' for me upon return, depending on whether ECM's right to keep the trough parked overhead rather than shifting it westward to enable a warmup despite continued showery conditions.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I’ve found I do better if I don’t see the end of month output!  I’m convinced the models lead us up the garden path deliberately!  😂

Enjoy your holiday!  👍
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gavin D
27 June 2023 17:41:23
June 2023 will be the hottest on record, the met office has said



ARTzeman
28 June 2023 09:58:22
IMANSF22               16.99c              Haydon        17.8c
Metcheck                 16.88c             Anomaly       2.73c
Netweather              17.48c             Anomaly       3.39c
Peasedown St John  17.78c             Anomaly       1.64c.  




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
28 June 2023 10:27:47

June 2023 will be the hottest on record, the met office has said





Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Not true as no way is it going to get past 18.0C

 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2023 10:37:28

Not true as no way is it going to get past 18.0C

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



They are talking about UK wide not the CET. Records go back to the 1880s for the UK so a significant record.  
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
28 June 2023 13:05:15
Hadley

17.0c to the 27th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
29 June 2023 09:19:17
IMANSF22             16.9c             Haydon           17.8c
Metcheck               16.90c          Anomaly          2.75c
Netweather            17.54c          Anomaly          3.45c
Peasedown St John   17.32c       Anomaly          1.18c.            




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
29 June 2023 13:52:18
Hadley

17.1c to the 28th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
30 June 2023 11:12:46
IMANSF22               16.99c             Haydon            17.7c
Metcheck                 16.04c            Anomaly           2.70c
Netweather              17.51c            Anomaly           3.42c
Peasedown St John  17.76c            Anomaly           1.62c.  




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
30 June 2023 13:30:24
Hadley

17.1c to the 29th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2023 20:40:03

Hadley

17.1c to the 29th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



👀
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gavin D
01 July 2023 12:34:24
June confirmed as 17.0c
Retron
01 July 2023 12:37:41

June confirmed as 17.0c

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Just under, I think - close, but no cigar!

It's 16.96 going by the daily data on the MetO website, but that itself is rounded of course!
Leysdown, north Kent
Bertwhistle
01 July 2023 12:53:04

Just under, I think - close, but no cigar!

It's 16.96 going by the daily data on the MetO website, but that itself is rounded of course!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Just beat 1976 though (although that was 17.0 on the old HadCET database. The duration of the warmth was remarkable I think. Locally, only 5 days failed to reach maxima of 22C and these were all in the 19s. There were 16 days of 25 or more and from 8th to 29th no day was colder than 23.7C. However, the highest was 29.0 which of course doesn't get near 1976.

My mean max = 24.9, ranking not far off of of the best Julys and Augusts I've had. Mean min =13.4 (not far off 1976).
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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