Thanks for the analysis Frank. Perhaps there's been a general underestimation of the contribution from well above normal SSTs to the W & NW of the UK... and/or their upscaling to record-high levels during the middle stages of the month. Back in late June I thought I was being a little bold estimating about a degree above the 1991-2020 average... so much for that! 😄
Curiously July also looks to start cool but with hints of something warmer later. Hmm!
I'm going to the Balearic Isles for a week starting very early tomorrow - almost the perfect timing you might say - so will send my CET estimate shortly. Arguably a handicap but to be honest, the 2nd half of the month tends to be subject to so much uncertainty that any disadvantage on my part likely pales by comparison.
Potential for a 'shock to the system' for me upon return, depending on whether ECM's right to keep the trough parked overhead rather than shifting it westward to enable a warmup despite continued showery conditions.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser